Tests of the Laing and Morrison coalition models under different planning horizons

The research tested Laing and Morrison's myopic and hyperopic models for sequential, three‐person coalition games when the goal is maximizing rank position. The myopic model assumes that people behave as if the present trial were the last, while the hyperopic model assumes that people behave as if the coalition formed on the present trial will continue forever. The experiment involved three different planning horizon conditions: an indefinite number of trials (the condition specified by Laing and Morrison for their models), one trial remaining, and eight trials remaining. Four different accumulated point totals were used: 300–250–50, 350–150–100, 250–200–150, and 225–200–175. In general, the myopic model was more successful than the hyperopic model, though neither model was especially accurate. Changes in the myopic model were proposed, and the difficulties in developing a theory of social decision making involving long range planning were discussed.