The human brain, social conformity, and presidential elections

This paper investigates aggregate voting behavior in American presidential elections from 1904 to 1980; the state is unit of analysis. We abandon the traditional assumption that voting is a rational process and instead construct a model to test the power of social conformity over voting decisions. The model, which uses the entropy measure of statistical information theory, allows specific numerical tests of its validity and, additionally, reveals unexpected dynamic patterns in voting behavior. We find four distinct processes related to social conformity that affect voter turnout and the distribution of votes among presidential candidates. A mathematical model for each process is identified and parameters are estimated from election data.