A formal theory of social power

This paper builds on French's (1956) Formal Theory of Social Power. In the theory, a population's power structure is formally related to its structure of influential communications which, in turn, is formally related to its pattern and prevalence of interpersonal agreements. The theory's predictions include the following about the members of a population: (1) the expected influence of each member in determining other members’ opinions on an issue; (2) the probability of consensus on an issue in the population or in any given subset (dyad or cluster) of the members; and (3) the probability that any given proportion of the members (e.g., a majority) will be in agreement on an issue. The theory overcomes well‐recognized limitations of French's seminal effort. Its predictions rest (1) on a micro‐level process of opinion change and (2) on macro‐level variations in the pattern and strengths of the ties that comprise a power structure.