Diffusion and survival models for the process of entry into marriage

Abstract

In this paper different survival models with a non‐parametric hazard rate function are applied to the process of entry into marriage. The hazard function of the Hernes model of the marriage process as well as the log‐logistic survival model are both derivable from a differential equation for a social diffusion process. The log‐logistic model might be appropriate for modelling the marriage rate because of its non‐monotonic hazard function. Moreover, in light of our analysis, application of this model to the marriage process can be justified by the theoretical rationale of a process of social diffusion. Both models are tested using German age‐at‐marriage data and the U.S. cohort data analyzed by Hernes (1972). It can be shown that the three parameter Hernes model yields a good fit while the log‐logistic model, with only two parameters, leads to a moderate approximation of the data.