Is politics power or policy oriented? A comparative analysis of dynamic access models in policy networks*

The contribution of the first author was partly made while he was a Research Fellow at The Netherlands Institute for Advanced Studies (NIAS). We thank Reinier Van Oosten for his contribution to the formulation of the first versions of the model and his advise on their implementation; Frans Wasseur for his assistance in the analysis of the results; Jannie Schonewille for the AVEBE data. We thank Jaco Berveling, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Bob Lieshout and Don Westerheijden for their comments on earlier formulations of the model.

We will show that these base models and some intermediate ones result in fundamentally different network structures and predicted outcomes. Moreover, we will show that the policy driven models do fundamentally better than the power driven models.

In policy networks actors use access relations to influence preferences of other actors. Establishment and shifts of access relations and their consequences for outcomes of decisions are the main focal points in this paper. Unlike most policy network studies, we therefore do not take the network and its relations as given and constant. Instead we device computer simulation models to account for the dynamics in policy networks. We compare different models and investigate the resulting network structures and predicted outcomes of decisions. The choice among the alternative models is made by their correspondence with empirical network structures and actual outcomes of decisions.

In our models, we assume that all relevant actors aim at policy outcomes as close as possible to their own preferences. Policy outcomes are determined by the preferences of the final decision makers at the moment of the vote. In general, only a small fraction of the actors takes part in the final vote. Most actors have therefore to rely on access relations for directly or indirectly shaping the preferences of the final decision makers. For this purpose actors make access requests to other actors. An access relation is assumed to be established if such a request is accepted by the other actor.

Access relations require time and resources. Actors are therefore assumed to be restricted in the number of access requests they can make and the number of requests they can accept Moreover, due to incomplete information and simultaneous actions by other actors, actors have to make simplifying assumptions in the selection of their “best” requests and learn by experience.

We device two base models that correspond to two basic views on the nature of political processes. In the first view politics is seen as power driven. Corresponding to this view, actors aim at access relations with the most powerful actors in the field. They estimate their likelihood of success by comparing their own resources with those of the target actors. Power also determines the order in which actors accept requests. In the second view, policy matters and actors roughly estimate the effects access relations might have on the outcome of decisions. Actors select requests to “bolster” their own preference as much as possible.

Key words:

• Policy networks
• collective decision making
• computer simulation
• object‐oriented modeling
• dynamic modeling of social networks

Notes

The contribution of the first author was partly made while he was a Research Fellow at The Netherlands Institute for Advanced Studies (NIAS). We thank Reinier Van Oosten for his contribution to the formulation of the first versions of the model and his advise on their implementation; Frans Wasseur for his assistance in the analysis of the results; Jannie Schonewille for the AVEBE data. We thank Jaco Berveling, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Bob Lieshout and Don Westerheijden for their comments on earlier formulations of the model.