Stochastic actor‐oriented models for network change

A class of models is proposed for longitudinal network data. These models are along the lines of methodological individualism: actors use heuristics to try to achieve their individual goals, subject to constraints. The current network structure is among these constraints. The models are continuous time Markov chain models that can be implemented as simulation models. They incorporate random change in addition to the purposeful change that follows from the actors’ pursuit of their goals, and include parameters that must be estimated from observed data. Statistical methods are proposed for estimating and testing these models. These methods can also be used for parameter estimation for other simulation models. The statistical procedures are based on the method of moments, and use computer simulation to estimate the theoretical moments. The Robbins‐Monro process is used to deal with the stochastic nature of the estimated theoretical moments. An example is given for Newcomb's fraternity data, using a model that expresses reciprocity and balance.

Key words:

• Methodological individualism
• Markov process
• Newcomb data
• balance
• Robbins‐Monro process
• simulation models
• method of moments
• simulated moments
• random utility

Notes

The ideas presented in this paper benefited from discussions with many people at the ICS, of whom I wish to mention Frans Stokman, Evelien Zeggelink, and Roger Leenders.