Mass media influence in option strategies

We present a model that attempts to quantify the amount of control mass media can effect on the decision‐making process of individuals. The model encompasses two gross types of influence: (i) on the selection of just one among several a priori equally probable alternatives, and (ii) on the bias introduced by the mass media towards some particular option. The forecasting power of the “option” component of the model was tested by recourse to a statistical voting sampling performed taken 15 days before an actual elective event (Buenos Aires Mayoral elections, July 1996). The model was able to forecast with quite good accuracy the ensuing final results.

Key words:

• Option
• mass media
• human systems
• nonlinear systems
• dynamics

Notes

Corresponding author. E‐mail: [email protected].