Stochastic Modeling of Congress

Abstract

We analyze the dynamics of growth of the number of congressmen supporting the resolution HR1207 to audit the Federal Reserve. The plot of the total number of cosponsors as a function of time is of the “Devil's staircase” type. The distribution of the numbers of new cosponsors joining during a particular day (step height) follows a power law. The distribution of the length of intervals between additions of new cosponsors (step length) also follows a power law. We use a modification of Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model to simulate the dynamics of Congress and obtain good agreement with the data.

Keywords:

• collective dynamics
• mathematical modeling
• social influence

Notes

¹We use this simplistic model because of a lack of available data on the influence network among the members of Congress. We could investigate a more realistic influence network process given such data.