The Delphi Decision-Making Process

Summary

The present study gives generalizations about specific patterns emerging from a panel decision-making Delphi process which, in three sessions or rounds, attempted to forecast the long-range general environment for higher education in the State of Michigan. Questionnaires consisted of a list of events for which the panel members were asked to evaluate the likelihood of occurrence within a 20-year period using a six-point scale ranging from “very probable” to “no judgment.” The results indicate several trends over the three-round period: a decrease in the number of “no judgment” and “very probable” responses; overall, more “probable” than “improbable” choices; and, contrary to traditional Delphi objectives, no significant convergence of opinions.