A Review of Some Smoothing and Forecasting Techniques

Abstract

Through the use of several examples, the case is made for using graphical representations of time sequenced data in order to insure that the forecaster makes full use of intuition as well as supplementary knowledge about the process in question. Among several possible devices, minicomputer-calculator graphs illustrate the effects on several sets of data when (1) various transformations of the original data are proposed; (2) seasonal adjustments are considered; (3) exponential smoothing is introduced; and (4) forecasting into the future is undertaken. The paper is intended as an expository article on forecasting and smoothing procedures.

• Exponential Smoothing
• Forecasting Techniques
• Graphical Methods
• Seasonal Adjustments
• Smoothing Procedures
• Transformations of Data

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Thomas J. Boardman

Dr. M. C. Bryson is an associate professor in the Department of Statistics at Colorado State University. He serves as a statistical consultant in the Statistical Laboratory.

Maurice C. Bryson

Dr. T. J. Boardman is an associate professor in the Department of Statistics at Colorado State University. He is also director of the Statistical Analysis Unit and serves as a general campus consultant on statistical applications. He is a senior member of ASQC.