Societal transformation, public opinion and Saudi youth: views from an academic elite

ABSTRACT

Saudi socio-politics is being affected by societal transformation; one that is being driven by a potent combination of demographics, improved education, wider access to the Internet and burgeoning new media usage. Whilst Saudi government decision-making remains ‘top-down’, the dynamic within this approach has shifted as the top-down system incorporates a consultation process that includes newly established civil society institutions. Nonetheless, of particular significance in Saudi Arabia is growing public awareness, particularly amongst young educated Saudis, of the need for government accountability, transparency and best-practices.

This paper discusses the views of a group of young men who represent an academic elite. Saudi-related literature frequently centers on the status of Saudi women, but the perspective of young Saudi men is generally overlooked even though this constituency is going to be of critical importance to the Kingdom's future social and political stability. The author recognizes that this elite sample does not represent Saudi youth in its entirety, but the diversity of student backgrounds and access to their extended networks can act as a barometer of educated youth opinion regarding many of the pressing politico-economic and socio-cultural issues facing Saudi Arabia today.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. See also, A. Al Shihabi, The Saudi Kingdom: Between the Jihadi Hammer and the Iranian Anvil (Princeton: Marcus Wiener Publishers, 2016), p.9.

2. A. Al Saud, ‘A Saudi Prince's Plea for Reform’, New York Times (24 February 2011). Available at: www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/opinion/25alsaud.html?_r=0.

3. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

4. The exception here is the 30-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who has initiated Saudi Vision 2030 in order to diversify the Kingdom's economy away from oil and petrochemicals. Tagged ‘Young prince in a hurry’ by the Economist, the prince's policies are ambitious, but controversial. See: Anon, ‘Young Prince in a Hurry’, The Economist (9 January 2016). Available at: www.economist.com/news/briefing/21685467-muhammad-bin-salman-gambles-intervention-abroad-and-radical-economic-change-home.

5. M. Yamani, Changed Identities: The Challenge of the New Generation in Saudi Arabia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2000).

6. P. Menoret, Joyriding in Riyadh: Oil, Urbanism, and Road Revolt (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

7. C. Murphy, A Kingdom's Future: Saudi Arabia through the Eyes of its Twentysomethings (Washington, DC: The Wilson Center, 2013).

8. KFUPM is situated in Dhahran in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia adjacent to the main Saudi Arabian Oil Company (ARAMCO) compound.

9. When I initiated this project, I ensured that it would be very much a collaborative effort and I have encouraged my KFUPM students and their networks to contribute to the research in order for it to reflect their opinions and concerns. Therefore, my views are very much informed by those of the respondents as accessed through interviews, focus group discussions and/or data from projects.

10. This included focus groups in all of the Kingdom's administrative regions.

11. To date, approximately 30 focus groups comprising between four and eight participants.

12. K. Wright, ‘Researching Internet-Based Populations: Advantages and Disadvantages of Online Survey Research, Online Questionnaire Authoring Software Packages, and Web Survey Services’, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication Vol.10, No.3, April 2005. Available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1083-6101.2005.tb00259.x/full.

13. J.R. Evans and A. Mathur, ‘The Value of Online Surveys’, Internet Research Vol.15, No.2 (2015), pp.195–219. doi:10.1108/10662240510590360.

14. K. Wright, ‘Researching Internet-Based Populations: Advantages and Disadvantages of Online Survey Research, Online Questionnaire Authoring Software Packages, and Web Survey Services’, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication Vol.10, No.3 (April 2005). Available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1083-6101.2005.tb00259.x/full.

15. J.R. Evans and A. Mathur, ‘The value of online surveys’, Internet Research Vol.15, No.2 (2015), pp.195–219. Available at: doi:10.1108/10662240510590360.

16. Thick Data is about a complex range of primary and secondary research approaches, including surveys, questionnaires, focus groups, interviews, journals, and/or videos.

17. Surveys are in Arabic, although an English language version is also available for individuals who feel more comfortable commenting on more contentious issues in English.

18. For more information, see www.jef.org.sa/.

19. JEF 2014 Session 4: Youth Discussion with King Abdulaziz Center for National Dialogue.

20. The population is divided among different age groups. The 0–14 age group contains the median amount of the population, comprising 32.4 per cent of the total. The middle age group of 15–64 makes up the greatest share of the total population, about 64.8 per cent. The 65+ age group comprises 2.8 per cent of the total population. See http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/saudi-arabia-population/.

21. The scholarship program was established by King Abdullah, but since 2015, due to financial constraints, the Saudi government has scaled the programme back significantly by reducing the fields of study it will fund. See ‘Popular King Abdullah Scholarship Program Reported to have New Restrictions along with Reduced Budget’, Saudi-US Trade Group, 10 February 2016. Available at: http://sustg.com/oil-price-hits-king-abdullah-scholarship-program-months-after-expansion-to-include-all-students/.

22. S. Alnassar and K.L. Dow, Delivering High-Quality Teaching and Learning for University Students in Saudi Arabia in L. Smith and A. Abouammoh (eds.) Higher Education in Saudi Arabia: Achievements, Challenges and Opportunities (Dordrecht: Springer, 2013), pp.49–50.

23. A. Al Harithy, ‘25-year Strategy for Higher Education Launched’, Saudi Gazette, 20 April 2011. Available at: www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method¼home.regconand contentID¼2011042098749.

24. J. Hildebrandt, M. El Abbouri and M. Alibraheem, ‘What Matters Most to Saudi Arabia's Youth?: Helping Policy Makers Address the National Challenges’, The Boston Consulting Group (June 2014), p.4. Available at: www.bcglondon.com/expertise_impact/Industries/Public_Sector/PublicationDetails.aspx?id=tcm:86-; Anon, ‘Official: Education is Pillar of Vision 2030’, Arab News (31 May 2016). Available at: www.arabnews.com/node/932381/saudi-arabia.

25. M. Ottaway and M. Dunne (eds.) ‘Incumbent Regimes and the “King's Dilemma”’ in The Arab World: Promise and Threat of Managed Reform. Middle East Program. No. 88 (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2007), p.28.

26. S. Chaudhary, The Role of Social Media as a Decisive Actor in Saudi Arabia in Gunter et al. (eds.) Social Media in the Arab World: Communication and Public Opinion in the Gulf States (London: I.B. Tauris, 2016), pp.25–44.

27. C. Fuchs, Social Media: A Critical Introduction (London: SAGE Publications Ltd., 2014), pp.5–6.

28. UCL Department of Anthropology, Global Social Media Impact Study. Available at: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/global-social-media.

29. J. Van Dijck, The Culture of Connectivity: A Critical History of Social Media (Oxford: Oxford University Press), p.73.

30. S. Chaudhary, The Role of Social Media as a Decisive Actor in Saudi Arabia in Gunter et al. (eds.) Social Media in the Arab World: Communication and Public Opinion in the Gulf States (London: I.B. Tauris, 2016), p.35.

31. C. Fuchs, Social Media: A Critical Introduction (London: SAGE Publications Ltd., 2014), p.207.

32. A. Aljabre, ‘Social Networking, Social Movements, and Saudi Arabia: A Review of Literature’, ARPN Journal of Science and Technology, Vol.3, No.2 (2013), p.161.

33. ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller, ‘Inside the Hearts and Minds of Arab Youth’, 8th Annual ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey, Dubai, UAE, 2016. Today, just 17 per cent of Arab youth get their news from newspapers, down from 62 per cent in 2011.

34. B. Gunter, M. Elareshi and K. Al-Jaber (eds.) Social Media in the Arab World: Communication and Public Opinion in the Gulf States (London: I.B. Tauris, 2016), p.4.

35. M. Yamani, ‘Saudi Youth’, in S. Khalaf and R. Khalaf (eds.) Arab Youth: Social Mobilisation in Times of Risk (London: Saqi Books, 2011), p.113.

36. S. Hertog, Back to the Seventies? Saudi Youth and the Kingdom's Political Economy after the Arab Uprisings in K. Selvik and B. Utvik (eds.) Oil States in the New Middle East: Uprisings and Stability (Abingdon: Routledge, 2016), p.86.

37. Anonymous respondent.

38. D.R. Brake, Sharing Our Lives Online: Risks and Exposure in Social Media (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2014), p.153.

39. S. Masry, Social Saudis: Uses and Implications of New Media in the Kingdom in J. Kinninmont (ed.) Chatham House Report: Future Trends in the Gulf (London: Chatham House, 2015), p.36. Available at: www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/20150218FutureTrendsGCCKinninmont.pdf.

40. The Social Clinic, ‘The State of Social Media in Saudi Arabia Vol. 3’, The Social Clinic (2015). Available at: www.thesocialclinic.com/the-state-of-social-media-in-saudi-arabia-vol-3/.

41. Arab Social Media Influencers Summit, ‘Arab Social Media Report 2015’, Dubai Media City, UAE. Available at: dmc.ae/img/pdf/white-papers/ArabSocialMediaReport-2015.pdf, p.4.

42. M. Sukarieh and S. Tannok, Youth Rising: The Politics of Youth in the Global Economy (Abingdon: Routledge, 2015), p.104.

43. A. Hirschman, Exit and Voice. An Expanding Sphere of Influence in A. Hirschman (ed.) Rival Views of Market Society (New York: Viking, 1986), p.82.

44. Q. Ahmed, ‘Saudi Arabia's Struggle with Social Media: Twitter Clowns and Facebook Fatwas’, The Blaze (11 April 2013). Available at: www.theblaze.com/contributions/saudi-arabias-struggles-with-social-media-twitter-clowns-and-facebook-fatwas/.

45. B. Momani, Arab Dawn: Arab Youth and the Demographic Dividend they will Bring (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2015), p.48.

46. Anonymous respondent.

47. M. Mednicoff and J.E. Springer, The Rule of Law and Political Liberalization in the Arab Gulf, in M. Hudson and M. Kirk (eds.) Gulf Politics and Economics in a Changing World (Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., 2014), p.97.

48. Focus group respondents.

49. Online survey ‘التحول الإجتماعي و الرأي العام’.

50. Personal observation, but corroborated by many of my respondents.

51. Interview with Saudi business graduate.

52. J. Kinninmont, To What Extent is Twitter Changing Gulf Societies? (London: Chatham House, February 2013). Available at: www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/189413.

53. Interview with Saudi engineer.

54. Interview with Saudi business graduate.

55. A. Aljabre, ‘Social Networking, Social Movements, and Saudi Arabia: A Review of Literature’, ARPN Journal of Science and Technology, Vol.3, No.2, 2013, p.164.

56. M. Yamani, Saudi Youth in S. Khalaf and R. Khalaf (eds.) Arab Youth: Social Mobilisation in Times of Risk (London: Saqi Books, 2011), p.113.

57. C. Montagu, Civil Society in Saudi Arabia: The Power and Challenges of Association (London: Chatham House, 2015). Available at: www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/20150331SaudiCivil.pdf.

58. M. Edwards, Civil Society (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2014), p.20.

59. Ibid., p.3.

60. See, Twitter@KingSalmanEN.

61. M. Yamani, Saudi Youth in S. Khalaf and R. Khalaf (eds.) Arab Youth: Social Mobilisation in Times of Risk (London: Saqi Books, 2011), p.123.

62. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

63. Ibid.

64. Municipal elections were held in Saudi Arabia on 12 December 2015 for municipal councils, which have limited decision-making powers on local issues. However, the elections appeared to receive greater attention outside Saudi Arabia than domestically, most likely because Saudi women ran as candidates. In fact, KFUPM students seemed somewhat underwhelmed by the whole process, which was perceived to reflect tribal realities rather than a ‘free and fair’ election.

65. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

66. Ibid.: although they concede there are important individuals ‘who do the Kingdom proud’.

67. J. Keane, Global Civil Society? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), p.12.

68. Anonymous respondent.

69. D. Singerman, ‘The Economic Imperatives of Marriage: Emerging Practices and Identities among Youth in the Middle East’, No.6, (Dubai: Wolfensohn Center for Development, Dubai School of Government, 2007), pp.7–8.

70. A. Al Shihabi, The Saudi Kingdom: Between the Jihadi Hammer and the Iranian Anvil (Princeton: Marcus Wiener Publishers, 2016), p.64.

71. M. Thompson, Saudi Arabia and the Path to Political Change: National Dialogue and Civil Society (London: I.B. Tauris, 2014), pp.212–3.

72. Online survey ‘التحول الإجتماعي و الرأي العام’.

73. Focus group discussion. Even if it is a combination of positive and negative, there are those who believe that the situation is difficult to assess because, in reality, social media conceals people's real opinions about societal transformation.

74. Ibid.

75. Ibid.

76. Online survey ‘التحول الإجتماعي و الرأي العام’.

77. M. Moaddel and J. De Jong, Trends in Values among Saudi Youth: Findings from Survey Values in Journal of the History of Childhood and Youth, Vol.6.1 (Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press, 2013), p.160.

78. Online survey ‘تأثير الشبكات الإجتماعية على خصوصية المجتمع السعودي’.

79. Ibid. I recognize that this data needs to be regularly updated due to the changing political environment.

80. This concept of promoting a post-oil mentality is part of an ongoing international project with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) I am involved with called ‘Public Brain Power: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management’.

81. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

82. T. Niblock and M. Malik, The Political Economy of Saudi Arabia (Abingdon: Routledge, 2007), p.20.

83. Online survey ‘التحول الإجتماعي و الرأي العام’.

84. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

85. M.A. Ramady, The Saudi Arabian Economy: Policies, Achievements and Challenges (Dordrecht: Springer, 2010), p.480.

86. C. Glynn, S. Herbst, M. Lindeman, G.J. O'Keefe and R.Y. Shapiro, Public Opinion (3rd ed, Boulder: Westview Press, 2016), p.22.

87. Ibid., pp.13–4.

88. Y. Benkler, The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2006), p.178.

89. Saudi Vision 2030 (National Transformation Plan) launched in April 2016 promises a better future and better governance, but is raising hopes and expectations amongst ordinary Saudis.

90. S. Hertog, Back to the Seventies? Saudi Youth and the Kingdom's Political Economy after the Arab Uprisings in K. Selvik and B. Utvik (eds.) Oil States in the New Middle East: Uprisings and Stability (Abingdon: Routledge, 2016), p.71.

91. J. Hildebrandt, M. El Abbouri and M. Alibraheem, ‘What Matters Most to Saudi Arabia's Youth?’ pp.5–6.

92. Anonymous respondent.

93. Amalgamated anonymous respondents: ‘Public opinion is a key factor in the development of societies’.

94. Ibid.

95. See, for example, V. Nereim and Z. Fattah, ‘Saudi Arabia Backs Tax on Empty Land as 40% of Riyadh Sits Empty’, Bloomberg Business, (17 November 2015). Available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-17/saudi-arabia-s-shoura-council-approves-tax-on-undeveloped-land.

96. See B. Al Homoud, فيلم مونوبولي Monopoly Short Film. Available at: mwww.youtube.com/watch?v=NMvCURQEhpM&feature=youtu.be

97. Focus group respondent.

98. Mohammed Al Tobayshi's on-camera ‘slap’ quickly went viral on Saudi social media channels. See, ‘Saudi Arabia's King Salman Sacks Senior Aide for Slapping a Journalist Behind him Live on TV’. Available at: www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabias-king-salman-sacks-senior-aide-for-slapping-a-journalist-behind-him-live-on-tv-10225836.html.

99. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

100. N. Ayubi, Overstating the Arab State: Politics and Society in the Middle East (London: I.B. Tauris, 2006), p.235.

101. Ibid.

102. M. Yamani, Saudi Youth in S. Khalaf and R. Khalaf (eds.) Arab Youth: Social Mobilisation in Times of Risk (London: Saqi Books, 2011), p.114.

103. Anonymous amalgamated respondents.

104. A. Al Shihabi, The Saudi Kingdom: Between the Jihadi Hammer and the Iranian Anvil (Princeton: Marcus Wiener Publishers, 2016), p.151.

105. J. Habermas, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere: An Inquiry into a Category of Bourgeois Society (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1962), p.xi.

106. Anonymous respondent: One individual believes that public opinion supports women driving as ‘people have been demanding it for decades yet still nothing happened’.

107. Anonymous amalgamated respondents.

108. Anonymous respondent.

109. Ibid.

110. Ibid.

111. Ibid.

112. L. Jordan, Global Civil Society in M. Edwards (ed.) The Oxford Handbook of Civil Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), p.97.

113. B. Momani, Arab Dawn: Arab Youth and the Demographic Dividend they will Bring (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2015), p.47.

114. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

115. Ibid.

116. C. Montagu, ‘Civil Society in Saudi Arabia: The Power and Challenges of Association’.

117. KFUPM postgraduate.

118. R. Putnam, ‘Bowling Alone: America's Declining Social Capital’, Journal of Democracy Vol.6 (1995), pp.65–78.

119. Anonymous respondent: ‘We have seen clear progress can be seen in this area’.

120. Anonymous amalgamated respondents.

121. C. Murphy, A Kingdom's Future: Saudi Arabia through the Eyes of its Twentysomethings (Washington, DC: The Wilson Center, 2013), p.62.

122. Ibid: ‘There is a lot of discussion at the moment about how Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are going to be introduced into all the ministries. This will be a departure from the way things were done in the past.’

123. Ibid.

124. M. Al Rasheed, Contesting the Saudi State: Islamic Voices from a New Generation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p.18.

125. Anonymous amalgamated respondents.

126. Anonymous amalgamated Shia respondents.

127. M. Al Rasheed, Muted Modernists: The Struggle Over Divine Politics in Saudi Arabia (London: C. Hurst & Co., 2015), p.135.

128. Interview with Saudi political-scientist.

129. Anonymous respondent.

130. Ibid.

131. M.C. Thompson, Opening up the Decision-Making Process in Saudi Arabia in Energy and the State: The Impact of Low Oil Prices, Gulf Affairs (Oxford: Oxford Gulf and Peninsula Studies Forum), Summer 2016, pp.22–3.

132. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

133. Anonymous respondent: ‘I believe unbiased media is the only means to find this balanced environment’.

134. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

135. Focus group respondents.

136. H. Sharabi, Neopatriarchy: A Theory of Distorted Change in Arab Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988), p.35.

137. Focus group respondents.

138. Ibid.

139. Ibid.

140. Ibid.

141. KFUPM postgraduate student: ‘Actually all sectors are now affected by the economic downturn, not only oil and petrochemicals’.

142. Interview with Saudi political consultant: ‘If you like, you could say that the ball is in the government's court’.

143. Ibid.

144. Interview with Saudi journalist: I witness a ‘healthy skepticism’ with my KFUPM students.

145. M. Al Rasheed, Muted Modernists: The Struggle Over Divine Politics in Saudi Arabia (London: C. Hurst & Co., 2015), p.39.

146. Interview with Saudi journalist.

147. ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller, ‘Inside the Hearts and Minds of Arab Youth’, 8th Annual ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey, Dubai, UAE, 2016.

148. J. Kinninmont, Chatham House Report: Future Trends in the Gulf (London: Chatham House, 2015).

149. Amalgamated anonymous respondents.

150. N. Ridge, Education and the Reverse Gender Divide in the Gulf States: Embracing the Global, Ignoring the Local (New York: Teachers College Press, Columbia University, 2014), p.167.

151. M.C. Thompson, Saudi Arabia and the Path to Political Change: National Dialogue and Civil Society (London: I.B. Tauris, 2014), p.210; K. Al Seghayer, Real Face of Saudi Arabia: Critical Insider Perspectives on Educational, Lifestyle, and Social Issues in the Kingdom (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Al Seghayer, 2015), pp.79–80.