The Norwegian Nature Index: Expert evaluations in precautionary approaches to biodiversity policy

Abstract

The Norwegian Nature Index is a comprehensive effort to ‘make nature visible’ in communications between policymakers and the general public. To ensure that appropriate ‘early warnings’ for biodiversity loss are made available as a basis for precautionary approaches to sustainability and biodiversity policy, different knowledge sources need to be applied, such as the Red List for threatened species and the Nature Index, which gives a comprehensive overview of biodiversity. The article shows how the Nature Index can be supplemented with ‘early warnings’ of biodiversity from involved scientific experts, who were asked to assess the situation in 2020 for the indicators, in view of all available knowledge. They also assessed the uncertainty in their forecasts and their considerations of the need for and difficulty of implementing management measures to maintain biodiversity at the current level. Particularly for the major ecosystems considered to have a poor state, namely forests and open lowlands, experts indicated that urgent action was needed to improve the state of many indicators and that such management action would be possible. The findings indicate potential for eliciting experts' formal and informal knowledge in assessing the need and potential approaches to biodiversity policy.

Keywords:

• biodiversity
• expert evaluation
• nature index
• precaution

Acknowledgements

Financial support from the Research Council of Norway's Project 190054 ‘Sustainable Development Indicators (SDI) in the Context of the Precautionary Principle’ is gratefully acknowledged. The authors thank Silvio Funtowicz for valuable advice, Bruna De Marchi for contributing to survey design, Nina Bruvik Westberg for proficient English translation, and Annegrete Bruvoll, Kjellrun Hiis Hauge, participants at the European Society for Ecological Economics 2011 conference for valuable comments. In addition, thanks are due to the anonymous reviewers for valuable comments, and Erik Flaa, Mona Irene Hansen, Marit Vågdal, and our late colleague Anne Skoglund for excellent editing, word processing, and technical assistance.