State of the nation: trends in New Zealand voters’ polarisation from 2009–2018

ABSTRACT

Voter polarisation, or the widening of differences between supporters of different political parties, is of growing concern in many nations. However, little is known about whether polarisation is on the rise in New Zealand. We address this lacuna by investigating temporal trends in voter polarisation in New Zealand (namely, those voting for the National party, Labour party, the Green party, and New Zealand First) from 2009–2018. Using a large national probability sample (the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study; Ns = 2,820–39,287), we assessed polarisation across three domains: demographic characteristics, social and policy attitudes, and feelings towards each political party (affective polarisation). Evidence of polarisation was generally limited, with the most notable trends occurring in the public’s perceptions of societal fairness and attitudes towards inequality. These analyses provide insight into the magnitude and type of polarisation occurring across voters in a multi-party context.

KEYWORDS:

• Polarisation
• New Zealand
• multi-party system
• public opinion
• policy attitudes

Acknowledgments

This research forms part of the PhD thesis of Nicole Satherley. Collection of the NZAVS data analysed in this paper was supported by a grant from the Templeton Religion Trust (TRT0196) awarded to Chris Sibley. Nicole Satherley was supported by a University of Auckland Doctoral Scholarship.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Although some other datasets do repeatedly assess New Zealand voters’ attitudes, most notably the New Zealand Election Study (NZES), inconsistent wording across assessment occasions complicate comparisons over time. As such, we utilised the NZAVS. This meant we could provide a comprehensive analysis of change from 2009–2018 using a large range of items that are consistent over time, rather than making comparisons to the NZES over a longer time frame, albeit with few specific items shared between the two surveys.

2. Note that data collection for each wave typically commenced towards the end of each year listed, and carried through into the next year. For the exact timeline of survey collection, see the participant response timeline technical documents on the NZAVS website: www.nzavs.auckland.ac.nz.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Templeton Religion Trust [TRT0196].

Notes on contributors

Nicole Satherley

Nicole Satherley is a research fellow in the School of Psychology at the University of Auckland. Her research areas are social and political psychology, with a focus on political partisanship.

Lara M. Greaves

Lara Greaves is a lecturer in New Zealand Politics and Public Policy at The University of Auckland. Lara is Associate Director (Policy Inc) at the University of Auckland's Public Policy Institute, and is part of large survey teams that work on the New Zealand Election Study, the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, and the Youth 19 Rangatahi Smart Survey. Her research covers the areas of political science, social psychology, Māori identity and politics, and health and well-being.

Danny Osborne

Danny Osborne is an associate professor in the School of Psychology at the University of Auckland. His research focuses on political psychology, with an emphasis on ideologies and collective action.

Chris G. Sibley

Chris G. Sibley is a professor of psychology at the University of Auckland. He teaches in research methods and social psychology and is the lead investigator for the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study.