Abstract
The issue of regional missile defense systems for Taiwan - the so-called Theater Missile Defense (TMD) - poses a dilemma for the three countries affected. On the one hand, Chinese short- and medium range missiles are undoubtedly a threat to this small island just off the coast of the hostile motherland. Moreover, a missile defense system, based on American technology, would establish a long desired "quasi-alliance" with the United States. On the other hand, missile defense systems are extremely expensive and the technology has yet to be proved. The American government is also undecided. With its agenda of supporting democratic movements around the world, it can hardly deny the legitimate wishes of the Taiwanese electorate to defend their island against Chinese threats. However, Washington does not have any interest in further burdening its relations with Beijing, since the US needs China on board in the continuing fight against international terrorism. The martial rhetoric of the Chinese government is not helpful either. First, Beijing lacks the military capacity to prevent the "renegade province" from realizing its plan; second, a war against Taiwan would be poisonous to the Chinese economic goals. For that reason, a clash in the Taiwan-Strait might cost the communist regime its job. Yet, this may also happen if Beijing forgoes a military reaction - initiated by the highly nationalistic Chinese people.
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