Estimation of Adult Mortality From Orphanhood Before and Since Marriage

Abstract

The orphanhood method has proved an important source of adult mortality estimates in countries without adequate vital registration systems, but produces rather out-of-date results and is prone to under-reporting of orphanhood at young ages (the ‘adoption effect’). In this paper we investigate whether a brief and straightforward supplementary question about the timing of the deaths of women's parents relative to first marriage can be used to study these problems. Coefficients are presented for estimating adult mortality from maternal and paternal orphanhood before and since marriage. Estimation of the time location of the results is discussed, and the methods are applied to data from Morocco, Burundi and Uganda. The results are promising. Data on orphanhood since marriage reflect more recent mortality than lifetime data and are less subject to the adoption effect. When it is accurately reported, information on orphanhood before marriage yields a series of mortality estimates that extends back at least 30 years.