On the Historical Relationship Between Infant and Adult Mortality

Abstract

The changing relationship between infant, early childhood and adult mortality under conditions where life expectancy at birth is very low is considered in this paper. The feasibility of predicting life expectancy at birth from the infant mortality rate, and conversely, is discussed by considering the circumstances under which infant, early childhood, and adult mortality may vary independently of one another. The implications of using the Princeton regional model life tables in circumstances where adult mortality must be used to estimate infant mortality (East Asia) and infant mortality to judge adult mortality (European populations) are discussed. Attention is also given to the nature of distinctive cause-specific age-at-death patterns, and the effects they may have on the balance between infant and early childhood mortality during the historical epidemiological transition. The paper concludes by outlining some of the implications for research on mortality levels in contemporary Third-World populations, especially the debate over the relative influence of medical intervention and socio-economic development.