Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy: Gaps and lags

Abstract

This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40–50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings augment Ryder's classic results on period–cohort translation.

Keywords:

• expectation of life
• mortality
• demographic translation
• period
• cohort
• Linear Shift Models
• mathematical demography

Notes

1. Joshua Goldstein is at the Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Wallace Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. E-mail: [email protected]. Kenneth W. Wachter is at the Departments of Demography and Statistics, University of California, Berkeley.