Soon, later, or ever? The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001)

Abstract

We use survey data from Bulgaria and Hungary to investigate the determinants of whether women intend to have a first or a second child and, if so, whether they intend to have the child within the ensuing 2 years or later. These determinants differ significantly by the order and timing of the intended birth. The variables used include measures of anomie and social capital and these appear to be among the factors that determine both whether to have a child and when. There is some evidence that these measures and economic factors are relatively more important in Bulgaria than in Hungary, and that ideational factors are more important in Hungary, particularly in the case of voluntary childlessness.

Keywords:

• fertility intentions
• very low fertility
• Bulgaria
• Hungary
• social capital
• anomie

Notes

1. Dimiter Philipov is at the Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Prinz-Eugen Straase 8, 1040 Vienna, Austria. E-mail: [email protected]. Zsolt Spéder is at the Demographic Research Institute, Hungarian Central Statistical Office. Francesco C. Billari is at the Istituto di Metodi Quantitativi, Università Bocconi and the Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research (IGIER).

2. The authors gratefully acknowledge the thoughtful comments and suggestions of the anonymous referees.