The analysis of birth statistics in the light of the recent international recovery of the birth-rate

Abstract

The startling recovery of the birth-rate in countries which previously had the lowest fertility in the world has attracted a great deal of attention. In all countries which previously had net reproduction rates below 1, these rates have now been above unity in one or more years since 1943 (with the probable exception of Germany and Austria¹). The aim of this paper is to deal with certain problems of the technique of analysis arising out of this movement, not to provide a discussion of its significance or an ‘explanation’. Indeed, it is argued that speculation as to the cause of this movement should be founded upon an analysis of facts made by somewhat different procedures from those usually adopted.