Fecundability and its relation to age in a sample of Taiwanese women

Abstract

In this paper reliable estimates of mean fecundability at marriage for a sample of heterogeneous Taiwanese women are obtained by using a set of data collected retrospectively. The effects of ‘truncation bias’ and ‘memory bias’ are estimated by studying the relationships between mean fecundability and the duration of marriage. Then the variations in fecundabilities by age at marriage are studied. The data are taken from an intensive fertility survey of married women between the ages of 20 and 39 conducted in Taichung city of Taiwan towards the end of 1962 prior to a year-long family planning action programme. Fecundability, the probability of conception in the absence of contraception, is estimated by using a Type I geometric model and is estimated from the observed distribution of first pregnancy intervals—the period between the onset of marriage and the beginning of first conception. The estimated fecundability level relatively free from truncation and memory bias is 195±3 per 1.000 women. The fecundability level increases with wife's age at marriage (up to 25) independently of its association with the duration of marriage.

This paper is based on the research carried out by the author as a part of his doctoral dissertation at the University of Michigan during 1966–68 under the able guidance of Leslie Kish, Paul Demeny, Ronald Freedman, Thomas F. Mayer and Robert G. Potter, Jr. The Taiwan Population Studies Center and the Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan have kindly made available to me the data from the Taichung Intensive Fertility Survey conducted under a grant from the Population Council. The author is grateful to L. P. Chow, the Director of Taiwan Population Studies Center, for his co-operation. The Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan has provided the clerical help, and the assistance of Claudia Ludvigh and J. Michel Coble in computer programming. The author gratefully acknowledges helpful suggestions from Robert G. Potter, Jr., Ronald Freedman, Albert T. Hermalin and Allan Schnaiberg. Grants from the Ford Foundation and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development provided the financial support for this research.

This paper is based on the research carried out by the author as a part of his doctoral dissertation at the University of Michigan during 1966–68 under the able guidance of Leslie Kish, Paul Demeny, Ronald Freedman, Thomas F. Mayer and Robert G. Potter, Jr. The Taiwan Population Studies Center and the Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan have kindly made available to me the data from the Taichung Intensive Fertility Survey conducted under a grant from the Population Council. The author is grateful to L. P. Chow, the Director of Taiwan Population Studies Center, for his co-operation. The Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan has provided the clerical help, and the assistance of Claudia Ludvigh and J. Michel Coble in computer programming. The author gratefully acknowledges helpful suggestions from Robert G. Potter, Jr., Ronald Freedman, Albert T. Hermalin and Allan Schnaiberg. Grants from the Ford Foundation and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development provided the financial support for this research.

Notes

This paper is based on the research carried out by the author as a part of his doctoral dissertation at the University of Michigan during 1966–68 under the able guidance of Leslie Kish, Paul Demeny, Ronald Freedman, Thomas F. Mayer and Robert G. Potter, Jr. The Taiwan Population Studies Center and the Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan have kindly made available to me the data from the Taichung Intensive Fertility Survey conducted under a grant from the Population Council. The author is grateful to L. P. Chow, the Director of Taiwan Population Studies Center, for his co-operation. The Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan has provided the clerical help, and the assistance of Claudia Ludvigh and J. Michel Coble in computer programming. The author gratefully acknowledges helpful suggestions from Robert G. Potter, Jr., Ronald Freedman, Albert T. Hermalin and Allan Schnaiberg. Grants from the Ford Foundation and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development provided the financial support for this research.