Projected consumption patterns for a stationary population

Abstract

Recently economists have demonstrated a renewed interest in the population problems of a mature society. This revival of interest has been sparked by the general recognition of the relationship between population growth and environmental problems and has led to general acceptance of the proposition that ‘ ... a zero rate of population growth is the only equilibrium rate that can be sustained’.¹ Consequently the literature produced during the discipline's last period of similar concern, a period running from the late 1920's through the 1940's, needs re-examination. At that time economists were primarily occupied with the implications of a declining rate of population growth and most anticipated the arrival of a stationary population within the foreseeable future. For most of the economists of this earlier period the onset of a stationary or declining population was fraught with dangers for mature capitalism.