Canada, United States, Australia and New Zealand: Nuptiality trends

Abstract

Annual variations are often more brutal for nuptiality than they are for other demographic phenomena. Short-term economic movements, in particular, seem to have a more direct impact. Fig. 1 clearly illustrates this point for Australia during the thirties. Nuptiality rates dip more sharply and recuperation is more pronounced: not only do they follow the employment trend, they amplify it.1

For nuptiality and fertility, the two indicators we chose are probably the most responsive to short-term movements. They result respectively, from the addition of age-specific first-marriage rates (number of first marriages at age x/total population age x) for ages 15 to 50, and from the combination of parity progression ratios which gives the average number of births per marriage, (a ₀+a ₀ a ₁+a ₀ a ₁ a ₂+ ..., where a ₁ is the ratio ofwomen who have a child of order i+1 per 1,000 mothers of children of order i). For each year these were divided by the corresponding cohort index, i.e. the proportion ever-married, and the mean number of ever-born children per marriage. The cohort used for a given year is that which reaches its mean age at first marriage in that year or its mean duration at birth of the children. Nine months are subtracted from the fertility measure to give time of conception.

The economic indicator is a measure obtained by dividing the number of jobs by the population aged 15 to 64. All indices are calculated using the 1926–1927 figures as base 100.

Notes

For nuptiality and fertility, the two indicators we chose are probably the most responsive to short-term movements. They result respectively, from the addition of age-specific first-marriage rates (number of first marriages at age x/total population age x) for ages 15 to 50, and from the combination of parity progression ratios which gives the average number of births per marriage, (a ₀+a ₀ a ₁+a ₀ a ₁ a ₂+ ..., where a ₁ is the ratio ofwomen who have a child of order i+1 per 1,000 mothers of children of order i). For each year these were divided by the corresponding cohort index, i.e. the proportion ever-married, and the mean number of ever-born children per marriage. The cohort used for a given year is that which reaches its mean age at first marriage in that year or its mean duration at birth of the children. Nine months are subtracted from the fertility measure to give time of conception.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Patrick Festy

The author is a staff member of the United Nations. The views here expressed are his own, not necessarily those of the United Nations. He wrote this article when he was a Research Officer in the University of Montreal and wishes to thank Gerard Frinking for his helpful advice and Muriel Roy for rewriting most of the English draft.