The role of simulation techniques in the theory and observation of family formation

Summary

The investigation of fertility change can involve the consideration of the results of micro-level empirical studies in the context of an economic theory of family formation. In particular, a change in the observable statistics can then be related to a change in behaviour, or factors influencing behaviour. The analysis of this relationship is hindered, however, by its complexity and by the large number of stochastic variables present. It is argued that an essential aid to such an analysis is the use of a model suitable for simulation. Here, we present such a model and illustrate possible applications with various experiments.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

N. J. Ireland

We are grateful for advice on programming problems from Mr D. Leech and for the research assistance of Mrs D. Ellwood. We would also like to express our debt to participants in seminars at the Universities of Pennsylvania and Cambridge. Responsibility for errors of omission and commission remain our own.