Child mortality and reproductive behaviour in German village populations in the past: A micro-level analysis of the replacement effect

Abstract

Reproductive histories of couples married during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in a sample of 14 German villages are analysed in order to answer several questions regarding the relationship between child mortality and reproductive behaviour. An effort is made through selection of cases and use of multiple classification analysis to eliminate or control non-volitional or otherwise confounding influences on the relationship between a couple's experience with child mortality and their fertility. The results do not provide a decisive answer to the question of whether, under a regime of otherwise presumed natural fertility, previous experience of child mortality affected subsequent reproductive behaviour. The evidence was much clearer in indicating that behaviour consistent with replacement efforts emerged or strengthened as family limitation spread. Finally, the results indicated that though it was not necessary for overall child mortality to decline before family limitation practices were adopted, couples with the most favourable child mortality experience were most likely to practise family limitation and to reduce their fertility. Child mortality appeared at least to impede, if not totally prevent, efforts to reduce the number of children ever born or to cease childbearing at an earlier age or at a given parity.

This research is part of a larger project supported by a grant from the National Institute of Health and has been facilitated by a Research Fellowship from the Rockefeller Foundation. The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure kindly gave hospitality to the author during part of the analysis. Helpful comments were provided by Albert Hermalin. The preparation of the data was aided by personal correspondence with Albert Köbele, Rudolph Manger, Friedrich Sauer, and Lorenz Scheuenpflug concerning questions about their village genealogies. A more detailed version of the paper has been issued as Research Report 81-1 by the Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, and is available on request.

This research is part of a larger project supported by a grant from the National Institute of Health and has been facilitated by a Research Fellowship from the Rockefeller Foundation. The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure kindly gave hospitality to the author during part of the analysis. Helpful comments were provided by Albert Hermalin. The preparation of the data was aided by personal correspondence with Albert Köbele, Rudolph Manger, Friedrich Sauer, and Lorenz Scheuenpflug concerning questions about their village genealogies. A more detailed version of the paper has been issued as Research Report 81-1 by the Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, and is available on request.

Notes

This research is part of a larger project supported by a grant from the National Institute of Health and has been facilitated by a Research Fellowship from the Rockefeller Foundation. The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure kindly gave hospitality to the author during part of the analysis. Helpful comments were provided by Albert Hermalin. The preparation of the data was aided by personal correspondence with Albert Köbele, Rudolph Manger, Friedrich Sauer, and Lorenz Scheuenpflug concerning questions about their village genealogies. A more detailed version of the paper has been issued as Research Report 81-1 by the Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, and is available on request.