Population dynamics based on birth intervals and parity progression

Abstract

The Chinese population policy of ‘later-longer-fewer’ suggests a formulation of population dynamics in terms of birth intervals and parity progression. This leads to population projections based on birth interval distributions and parity progression ratios and to an alternative to Lotka's stable population theory in which age is replaced by parity and interval since last birth. A numerical comparison with Lotka's model indicates similarities and differences between the two approaches: The formulation suggests an approach to the analysis of birth interval and parity progression statistics that effectively solves censoring and selection problems.

This paper would not have been conceived, but for a series of conversations with Pi-chao Chen on the demography of China. For comments and discussion I am indebted and grateful to Brian Arthur, Larry L. Bumpass, William Brass, Joel Cohen, Ansley J. Coale, Nathan Keyfitz, Jane A. Menken, James A. Palmore, Robert D. Retherford, Ronald R. Rindfuss, John A. Ross, Norman B. Ryder, Michael Stoto, James Trussell and Susan Watkins, to the participants in the 1981 Population Association of America meetings mathematical demography session organized by Zenus Sykes, and to the participants in the Childspacing Workshop of the East-West Population Institute 1981Summer Seminar in Population. Production of birth-interval tabulations from the National Fertility Survey (NFS) data was facilitated by a tape kindly made available by Nan E. Johnson. The 1970 NFS was taken pursuant to contract no. PH-43-65-1048 with the National Institutes of Health, Public Health Services, Department of Health, Education and Welfare (United States). I am grateful for the excellent support services of the East-West Population Institute, especially in this case to Ruby Bussen (computer) and Alice Harris (library). Support from U.S. Agency for International Development Contract AID/DS/PE/C-0002 is gratefully acknowledged.

This paper would not have been conceived, but for a series of conversations with Pi-chao Chen on the demography of China. For comments and discussion I am indebted and grateful to Brian Arthur, Larry L. Bumpass, William Brass, Joel Cohen, Ansley J. Coale, Nathan Keyfitz, Jane A. Menken, James A. Palmore, Robert D. Retherford, Ronald R. Rindfuss, John A. Ross, Norman B. Ryder, Michael Stoto, James Trussell and Susan Watkins, to the participants in the 1981 Population Association of America meetings mathematical demography session organized by Zenus Sykes, and to the participants in the Childspacing Workshop of the East-West Population Institute 1981Summer Seminar in Population. Production of birth-interval tabulations from the National Fertility Survey (NFS) data was facilitated by a tape kindly made available by Nan E. Johnson. The 1970 NFS was taken pursuant to contract no. PH-43-65-1048 with the National Institutes of Health, Public Health Services, Department of Health, Education and Welfare (United States). I am grateful for the excellent support services of the East-West Population Institute, especially in this case to Ruby Bussen (computer) and Alice Harris (library). Support from U.S. Agency for International Development Contract AID/DS/PE/C-0002 is gratefully acknowledged.

Notes

This paper would not have been conceived, but for a series of conversations with Pi-chao Chen on the demography of China. For comments and discussion I am indebted and grateful to Brian Arthur, Larry L. Bumpass, William Brass, Joel Cohen, Ansley J. Coale, Nathan Keyfitz, Jane A. Menken, James A. Palmore, Robert D. Retherford, Ronald R. Rindfuss, John A. Ross, Norman B. Ryder, Michael Stoto, James Trussell and Susan Watkins, to the participants in the 1981 Population Association of America meetings mathematical demography session organized by Zenus Sykes, and to the participants in the Childspacing Workshop of the East-West Population Institute 1981Summer Seminar in Population. Production of birth-interval tabulations from the National Fertility Survey (NFS) data was facilitated by a tape kindly made available by Nan E. Johnson. The 1970 NFS was taken pursuant to contract no. PH-43-65-1048 with the National Institutes of Health, Public Health Services, Department of Health, Education and Welfare (United States). I am grateful for the excellent support services of the East-West Population Institute, especially in this case to Ruby Bussen (computer) and Alice Harris (library). Support from U.S. Agency for International Development Contract AID/DS/PE/C-0002 is gratefully acknowledged.