An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

Abstract

In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.

We wish to thank Griffith Feeney, who suggested that demographic sensitivity analysis methods developed in W. B. Arthur, ‘The Analysis of Causal Linkages in Demographic Theory’, IIASA Research Report RR-81-27 (1981), be applied to incomplete-data estimation techniques. Helpful comments were provided by Douglas Ewbank, Kenneth Hill, and Joseph Potter. The research was carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

We wish to thank Griffith Feeney, who suggested that demographic sensitivity analysis methods developed in W. B. Arthur, ‘The Analysis of Causal Linkages in Demographic Theory’, IIASA Research Report RR-81-27 (1981), be applied to incomplete-data estimation techniques. Helpful comments were provided by Douglas Ewbank, Kenneth Hill, and Joseph Potter. The research was carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Notes

We wish to thank Griffith Feeney, who suggested that demographic sensitivity analysis methods developed in W. B. Arthur, ‘The Analysis of Causal Linkages in Demographic Theory’, IIASA Research Report RR-81-27 (1981), be applied to incomplete-data estimation techniques. Helpful comments were provided by Douglas Ewbank, Kenneth Hill, and Joseph Potter. The research was carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.