Fertility exposure analysis: A new method for assessing the contribution of proximate determinants to fertility differentials

Summary

Several recent papers have dealt with the problem of assessing the impact of the proximate determinants on fertility. All these approaches rely on combining a series of separately estimated aggregate level indicators. This paper proposes an approach which uses individual-level data and thus permits regression analyses as well as analyses for sub-groups. In the course of development it became clear that there are several deficiencies and inconsistencies in the measurement and formation of indices proposed elsewhere, which are overcome. We illustrate our approach with data from the Dominican Republic. The approach used involves attributing exposure to one or more of several states, including pregnancy, lactational and non-lactational components of post-partum amenorrhoea, absence of sexual relations and contraception. Key elements are efficacies of contraception and components of post-partum infecundity and the treatment of overlaps through an explicit hierarchy. We treat both unconditional (or additive) and conditional analyses. Intriguing findings on the age-specific pattern of fertility control emerge. Major advantages of regression analysis, such as simultaneous treatment of several variables and estimation of sampling variation are stressed.

We are very grateful to V. C. Chidambaram for his continued encouragement and interest in this project. In comments on an earlier draft, John Bongaarts pointed out the need to adjust for the association between sterility and the proximate determinants, which led us to the analysis of heterogeneity in Section 4. We would also like to acknowledge helpful discussions with our erstwhile colleagues John Casterline, John Cleland and Susheela Singh, whose work on applying Bongaarts's framework cross-nationally formed a symbiotic project to our own.

We are very grateful to V. C. Chidambaram for his continued encouragement and interest in this project. In comments on an earlier draft, John Bongaarts pointed out the need to adjust for the association between sterility and the proximate determinants, which led us to the analysis of heterogeneity in Section 4. We would also like to acknowledge helpful discussions with our erstwhile colleagues John Casterline, John Cleland and Susheela Singh, whose work on applying Bongaarts's framework cross-nationally formed a symbiotic project to our own.

Notes

We are very grateful to V. C. Chidambaram for his continued encouragement and interest in this project. In comments on an earlier draft, John Bongaarts pointed out the need to adjust for the association between sterility and the proximate determinants, which led us to the analysis of heterogeneity in Section 4. We would also like to acknowledge helpful discussions with our erstwhile colleagues John Casterline, John Cleland and Susheela Singh, whose work on applying Bongaarts's framework cross-nationally formed a symbiotic project to our own.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

J. Hobcraft

Professor of Population Studies, London School of Economics and Political Science. Formerly Chief, Analysis Section, World Fertility Survey

R. J. A. Little

Associate Professor, Department of Biomathematics, University of California at Los Angeles and Consultant, World Fertility Survey