Educational composition and parity contribution to completed cohort fertility change in low-fertility settings

Abstract

Extensive literature has documented the contribution of rising women’s education to decreases in completed cohort fertility (CCF). A key question related to the education–fertility relationship is to what extent the decrease in fertility is the result of changes in educational composition vs changes in fertility behaviours within educational categories. This study quantified the effect of educational expansion on fertility levels by decomposing the overall change in CCF into educational composition and education-specific fertility, and explored the changes in parity-specific components of CCF by education for cohorts born between 1940 and 1970. The results show that, despite the decline in CCF being caused mostly by changes in fertility behaviours, educational composition had a considerable impact for some cohorts. The decline in third and higher-order births played a central role in the fall in CCF across educational groups, while the effects of transitions to first and second births varied substantially.

Keywords:

• cohort fertility
• parity
• educational attainment
• decomposition
• Australia
• Finland
• Hungary
• Ireland
• South Korea
• Spain

Notes

1 Please direct all correspondence to Ester Lazzari, School of Demography, Australian National University, 146 Ellery Crescent, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia; or by Email: [email protected]

2 We are very grateful to the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive and valuable comments.

3 Research reported in this publication was supported by the University Research Scholarship and by the Higher Degree Research (HDR) Fee Merit Scholarship offered by the Australian National University (ANU).