Seasonal variation in infant mortality in India

Abstract

Investigating seasonal variation in health helps us understand interactions between population, environment, and disease. Using information on birth month and year, survival status within the first year of life, and age at death (if applicable) of more than 330,000 children observed in four rounds of India’s Demographic and Health Surveys, I estimate period mortality rates between birth and age one (₁m₀) by calendar month. Relative to spring months, infant mortality is higher in the summer, monsoon, and winter months. If spring mortality conditions had been prevalent throughout the year, mortality below age one would have been lower by 11.4 deaths per 1,000 in the early 1990s and 3.7 deaths per 1,000 in the mid-2010s. Seasonal variation in infant mortality has declined overall but remains higher among disadvantaged children. The results highlight the multiple environmental health threats that Indian infants face and the short time of year when these threats are less salient.

Keywords:

• seasonality
• infant mortality
• child health
• environment
• environmental health
• India

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 Aashish Gupta is based at the Population Studies Center and Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania. Please direct all correspondence to Aashish Gupta, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 239 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104–6298, USA; or by E-mail: [email protected]

2 Acknowledgements: I am grateful to the editors and anonymous reviewers, and many other colleagues for their helpful comments and suggestions.

3 This research was supported by the IUSSP CRVS fellowship.

4 Data are publicly available for download from measuredhs.com.