Predictive validity of the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equations in predicting residual-specific mortality in a national prospective cohort study of adults in the United States

ABSTRACT

Objective: The predictive validity of the Pooled Cohort risk (PCR) equations for residual-specific mortality (deaths not resulting from the 9 leading causes of death) among a national sample of U.S. adults has not previously been evaluated, which was the purpose of this study.

Methods: Data from the 1999–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed up through 31 December 2011 to ascertain mortality status. The analyzed sample included 11,171 cardiovascular disease-free adults (40–79 years of age). The 10-year risk of a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event was determined from the PCR equations.

Results: For the entire sample, 849,202 person-months occurred with an incidence rate of 0.29 (95% CI: 0.25–0.33) residual-specific deaths per 1,000 person-months. The unweighted median follow-up duration was 72 months. For all analyses, ASCVD risk score (via the PCR equations) was significantly associated with residual-specific mortality. In a fully adjusted model including moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), obesity, age (yrs; continuous measure), gender (male/female) and race-ethnicity (Mexican American, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black and other) as covariates, those with an ASCVD ≥ 20 (vs. < 20) had a 91% increased hazard of residual-specific death during the follow-up period (HR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.10–3.31). Expressed as probability, there was a 66% chance that those with ASCVD ≥ 20 (vs. < 20) would have a residual specific-death during the follow-up period.

Conclusion: The 10-year predicted risk of a first ASCVD event via the PCR equations was directly associated with residual-specific mortality among those free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, providing evidence of predictive validity of the PCR equations among this national sample of U.S. adults.

KEYWORDS:

• Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
• epidemiology
• risk equations
• survival
• causes of death
• prevention
• population

Declaration of interest

The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties.

Additional information

Funding

This article was not funded.