Interpretation of correlations in clinical research

ABSTRACT

Background: Critically analyzing research is a key skill in evidence-based practice and requires knowledge of research methods, results interpretation, and applications, all of which rely on a foundation based in statistics. Evidence-based practice makes high demands on trained medical professionals to interpret an ever-expanding array of research evidence.

Objective: As clinical training emphasizes medical care rather than statistics, it is useful to review the basics of statistical methods and what they mean for interpreting clinical studies.

Methods: We reviewed the basic concepts of correlational associations, violations of normality, unobserved variable bias, sample size, and alpha inflation. The foundations of causal inference were discussed and sound statistical analyses were examined. We discuss four ways in which correlational analysis is misused, including causal inference overreach, over-reliance on significance, alpha inflation, and sample size bias.

Results: Recent published studies in the medical field provide evidence of causal assertion overreach drawn from correlational findings. The findings present a primer on the assumptions and nature of correlational methods of analysis and urge clinicians to exercise appropriate caution as they critically analyze the evidence before them and evaluate evidence that supports practice.

Conclusion: Critically analyzing new evidence requires statistical knowledge in addition to clinical knowledge. Studies can overstate relationships, expressing causal assertions when only correlational evidence is available. Failure to account for the effect of sample size in the analyses tends to overstate the importance of predictive variables. It is important not to overemphasize the statistical significance without consideration of effect size and whether differences could be considered clinically meaningful.

KEYWORDS:

• Correlation
• causal relationships
• clinical education
• instructional materials
• practice-based research
• non-experimental methods
• commentary

Declaration of Interest

The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties.

Additional information

Funding

This investigation was supported by the University of Utah Department of Orthopaedics Quality Outcomes Research and Assessment, Study Design and Biostatistics Center, with funding in part from the National Center for Research Resources and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, through Grant 5UL1TR001067-02.