Evaluation of the value of diabetes risk scores in screening for undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes: a community-based study in southwestern China

ABSTRACT

Objectives

To evaluate the performance and cost-effectiveness of existing diabetes risk scores (DRSs) to screen for undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (UDM) and prediabetes (PD) in a community-based southwestern Chinese population.

Methods

Participants in TIDE-Chengdu survey with requisite data and without known diabetes were included. Five Chinese-derived DRSs and six non-Chinese-derived DRSs were included for evaluation. Their performance in detecting UDM and UMD or PD (UDM/PD) was assessed using the C-statistic. The cost-effectiveness of the optimal DRS was compared with that of capillary fasting blood glucose (CFBG).

Results

Of the 1,692 TIDE-Chengdu survey participants included, 177 (10.5%) had UDM and 339 (20.0%) had PD. The rural participants (N = 737) were more likely to have UDM (13.4% vs. 8.2%) and PD (24.8% vs. 16.3%) than their urban counterparts (N = 955) (P < 0.0001). In the full population, the included DRSs all showed good discrimination in detecting UDM (C-statistic: 0.699 to 0.762) and UDM/PD (C-statistic: 0.717 to 0.769), but the New Chinese DRS (NCDRS) performed best for both UDM and UDM/PD. The DRSs evaluated all showed better performance in urban participants than rural participants for both UDM (C-statistic: 0.718 to 0.795 vs. 0.642 to 0.720) and UDM/PD (C-statistic: 0.729 to 0.793 vs. 0.682 to 0.726) (all P < 0.05). The mean cost per UDM/PD case identified was lower with NCDRS at score 25 (¥503.3($71.9)) and 27 (¥490.5 ($70.1)) than CFBG at 5.0, 5.1, 5.2, or 5.3 mmol/L (¥631.7 ($90.2), ¥611.8 ($87.4), ¥579.2 ($82.7) and ¥551.9 ($78.8)), whereas the mean costs per UDM case identified was higher with NCDRS at score 25 (¥1379.3 ($197.0)) and 27 (¥1315.1 ($187.9)) than CFBG at 5.3, 5.4, or 5.5 mmol/L (¥1301.7 ($186.0), ¥1247.7 ($178.2) and ¥1173.3 ($167.6)).

Conclusion

The NCDRS represents a valid and cost-effective tool for use in southwestern China to identify high-risk patients with UDM or PD who need a diagnostic test.

KEYWORDS:

• Diabetes risk score
• screening
• undiagnosed diabetes mellitus
• prediabetes
• cost-effectiveness

Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge all the medical staff, researchers and participants in TIDE-Chengdu survey. We thank Mark Cleasby, PhD, from Liwen Bianji, Edanz Group China (www.liwenbianji.cn/ac), for editing the English text of a draft of this manuscript.

Disclosure statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Peer reviewers on this manuscript have received an honorarium from PGM for their review work but have no other relevant financial relationships to disclose.

Data availability statement.

The data used to support for findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.