Locating Neighborhood Displacement Risks to Climate Gentrification Pressures in Three Coastal Counties in Florida

Abstract

Residential displacement as a result of climate change impacts will manifest on varied temporal and spatial scales affecting both coastal and inland communities. As coastal residents contend with more frequent shocks and stress from sea-level rise, many will eventually need to abandon their homes and property. Inland communities consisting of socioeconomically vulnerable populations with less exposure to climate change impacts will presumably be at risk for residential displacement. This study uses three counties in Florida—Duval, Pinellas, and Miami-Dade—as cases, and employs publicly available data. The well-known principal components analysis generated representative components of housing, socioeconomic, and demographic characteristics known to predispose neighborhoods to the risk of secondary residential displacement. An additive model fit to the individual principal components analysis retained six components for Duval and Miami-Dade counties and seven for Pinellas county. The subsequent displacement risk categorization captures interrelationships between neighborhood socioeconomic and biophysical risk and allows for the identification of areas with higher secondary displacement risks. High potential second-order displacement was found in 30 percent, 25 percent, and 20 percent of the block groups in Duval, Miami-Dade, and Pinellas counties, respectively. This article serves as a framework to operationalize factors that predispose a neighborhood to climate gentrification driven by sea-level rise.

气候变化造成的居民迁移体现在各种不同的时空尺度, 对沿海和内陆社区都造成影响。沿海居民面临着更加频繁的海平面上升的冲击和压力, 许多人最终只能放弃家园和财产。受气候变化影响较小的、由社会经济弱势群体组成的内陆社区, 也可能面临着居民迁移的风险。本文利用公开数据, 研究了美国佛罗里达州的杜瓦尔县、皮内拉斯县、迈阿密-戴德县。主成分分析给出住房、社会经济和人口特征的代表性成分, 这些特征使社区易于出现二次居民迁移的风险。对每个主成分进行加性模型拟合, 保留了杜瓦尔县和迈阿密-戴德县的6个成分和皮内拉斯县的7个成分。对迁移风险进行分类, 能解释社区社会经济风险和自然风险的关系、识别二次迁移风险较高的区域。在杜瓦尔县、迈阿密-戴德县和皮内拉斯县, 分别有30%、25%和20%的人口普查街区组存在着很大的二阶迁移可能性。本文提出的框架, 可以对海平面上升驱动的社区气候高档化的决定因素进行实际操作。

El desplazamiento residencial determinado por los impactos del cambio climático es evidente en una variedad de escalas temporales y espaciales que afectarán por igual a las comunidades litorales y del interior. A medida que los residentes de las costas se enfrentan a los impactos más frecuentes y al estrés derivados del aumento del nivel del mar, muchos de ellos tendrán eventualmente que abandonar sus casas y propiedades. Las comunidades del interior que estén constituidas por poblaciones socioeconómicamente vulnerables, aunque con menor exposición a los impactos del cambio climático, presumiblemente correrán también el riesgo del desplazamiento residencial. Este estudio usa como casos tres condados de la Florida –Duval, Pinellas y Miami-Dade– y emplea datos públicamente disponibles. El bien conocido análisis de componentes principales generó componentes representativos de las características socioeconómicas, demográficas y de vivienda que se sabe predisponen los vecindarios al riesgo de desplazamiento residencial secundario. Un modelo aditivo ajustado al análisis de componentes principales individuales retuvo seis componentes para los condados de Duval y Miami-Dade, y siete para el condado de Pinellas. La subsiguiente categorización del riesgo de desplazamiento capta las interrelaciones entre los riesgos socioeconómico y biofísico del vecindario y permite la identificación de áreas con mayores riesgos de desplazamiento secundario. Un alto potencial de desplazamiento de segundo orden se halló en el 30 por ciento, 25 por ciento y 20 por ciento de los grupos de bloques en los condados de Duval, Miami-Dade y Pinellas, respectivamente. Este artículo sirve como marco para operacionalizar los factores que predisponen un vecindario a la gentrificación climática impulsada por el aumento del nivel del mar.

Key Words:

• climate gentrification
• displacement
• gentrification
• principal components analysis
• sea-level rise

关键词:

• 气候高档化
• 迁移
• 高档化
• 主成分分析
• 海平面上升。

Palabras clave:

• análisis de componentes principales
• ascenso del nivel del mar
• desplazamiento
• gentrificación
• gentrificación climática

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the editor and reviewers for providing insightful feedback and notably improving the quality of the article.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Bertram L. Melix

BERTRAM L. MELIX is a PhD Student in the Department of Geography at Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include health disparities, small-area analysis, social determinants of health, vulnerability, and health geography.

April Jackson

APRIL JACKSON is an Associate Professor in the Department of Urban Planning and Policy at the University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607. E-mail: [email protected]. She is also a Research Affiliate with the National Initiative on Mixed-Income Communities at Case Western Reserve University. Her research explores how to enhance planning practice and the built environment by promoting plans with a focus on equitable, inclusive, and just communities.

William Butler

WILLIAM BUTLER is an Associate Professor in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include collaborative governance, natural resources management, environmental planning and management, social-ecological resilience, sustainability, public participation, and community involvement.

Tisha Holmes

TISHA HOLMES is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research interests include climate change and adaptation strategies in coastal zones, promoting socioecological resilience in marginalized communities, planning in ecologically sensitive areas, community participation, and engagement.

Christopher K. Uejio

CHRISTOPHER K. UEJIO is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography at Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include public health, medical geography, climate variability, climate change, vulnerability, health disparities, health interventions, environmental health, infectious diseases (mosquito-borne, water-borne, food-borne), and stakeholder-driven science.