Seasonality of Overseas Tourism Demand in Scotland: A Regional Analysis

Abstract

Coshall J., Charlesworth R. and Page S. J. Seasonality of overseas tourism demand in Scotland: a regional analysis, Regional Studies. This paper examines patterns of seasonality in international tourism to the regions of Scotland. Quarterly numbers of overnight stays are disaggregated by trip purpose. Seasonality in vacation tourism to Scotland is shown to be defined by more than a simple rural–urban division. Overseas visiting friends and relatives (VFR) tourism is largely an urban phenomenon and is consequently less seasonal than vacation tourism. Lower seasonal concentration of VFR tourism is not uniform across the regions. Although levels of seasonal intensity of business tourism to the three principal cities of Scotland are approximately the same, there are noticeable variations over time.

Coshall J., Charlesworth R. and Page S. J. 到苏格兰从事海外旅游需求的季节性：区域的分析，区域研究。本文检视造访苏格兰地区的国际旅游的季节性模式。每季的过夜数目，将依照旅行目的进行分解。研究显示，造访苏格兰的假期旅游中的季节性，超出简单的城乡划分之定义。海外友人造访与探亲（VFR）旅游多半是城市的现象，因而较假期旅游更不具季节性。海外友人造访与探亲旅游的较低季节集中性，对各区域而言并不一致。儘管在苏格兰的三大主要城市中，商务旅行的季节性强度程度大约是一致的，但仍然随着时间的推移有着显着的变异。

Coshall J., Charlesworth R. et Page S. J. La saisonnalité de la demande extérieure du tourisme à destination de l’Écosse: une analyse régionale, Regional Studies. Cet article examine le caractère saisonnier du tourisme international à destination des régions écossaises. Les nuitées trimestrielles sont ventilées en fonction de l'objectif du voyage. On montre que le caractère saisonnier du tourisme pendant les vacances à destination de l’Écosse est délimité par plus d'un simple clivage ruralo-urbain. Le VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives; le tourisme des amis et des relations) en provenance de l'extérieur est dans une large mesure un phénomène urbain et, par la suite, s'avère moins saisonnier que ne l'est le tourisme pour raison de vacances. Une concentration moins saisonnière du tourisme VFR varie selon les régions. Bien que les niveaux de l'intensité saisonnière du tourisme d'affaires à destination des trois grandes villes principales de l’Écosse soient à peu près pareils, il existe d'importantes variations dans le temps.

Coshall J., Charlesworth R. und Page S. J. Saisonabhängigkeit der Nachfrage des Auslandstourismus in Schottland: eine regionale Analyse, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag werden die Muster der Saisonabhängigkeit des internationalen Fremdenverkehrs in den Regionen von Schottland untersucht. Die Quartalszahlen der Übernachtungen werden anhand des Reisezwecks aufgegliedert. Es zeigt sich, dass die Saisonabhängigkeit des Ferientourismus in Schottland von mehr Faktoren definiert wird als einer bloßen Aufteilung zwischen Stadt und Land. Auslandsbesuche durch Freunde und Verwandte sind ein größtenteils in Städten anzutreffendes Phänomen und daher weniger saisonbedingt als Ferientourismus. Eine saisonbedingt geringere Konzentration von Besuchen durch Freunde und Verwandte tritt in den verschiedenen Regionen nicht gleichmäßig auf. Obwohl das Ausmaß der saisonalen Intensität des Geschäftstourismus in den drei wichtigsten Städten Schottlands ungefähr gleich ausfällt, lassen sich im Laufe der Zeit deutliche Schwankungen feststellen.

Coshall J., Charlesworth R. y Page S. J. Estacionalidad de la demanda de turismo extranjero en Escocia: un análisis regional, Regional Studies. En este artículo examinamos los patrones de estacionalidad en el turismo internacional para las regiones de Escocia. Desglosamos los datos trimestrales de las pernoctaciones en función de la finalidad de los viajes. Demostramos que la estacionalidad en el turismo de vacaciones en Escocia está definida por más de una simple división entre la ciudad y el campo. El turismo extranjero para visitar a amigos y familiares es en gran parte un fenómeno urbano y, en consecuencia, menos estacional que el turismo de vacaciones. La menor concentración estacional del turismo extranjero para visitar a amigos y familiares no es uniforme en las regiones. Aunque los niveles de intensidad estacional del turismo comercial en las tres ciudades principales de Escocia son aproximadamente iguales, se observan variaciones notables con el transcurso del tiempo.

• Gini coefficient
• Amplitude ratio
• Regional seasonality

• 基尼系数
• 振幅比率
• 区域的季节性

• Coefficient de Gini
• Ratio d'amplitude
• Saisonnalité régionale

• Gini-Koeffizient
• Amplitudenverhältnis
• Regionale Saisonabhängigkeit

• Coeficiente de Gini
• Razón de amplitud
• Estacionalidad regional

JEL classifications:

• C43
• R12
• R58

Notes

1. Seasonality is often measured using visitors' arrival data, accommodation occupancy levels, traffic levels, demand for public transport, tourists' expenditures, employment in the sector or admission numbers to tourist attractions.

2. A structural decline occurred 1996–2000, which led to a parliamentary inquiry on the performance of the former Scottish Tourist Board and its leadership in tourism; post-2000 public sector intervention led to enhanced spending on tourism promotion with the formation of VisitScotland in 2002. Yet there are also debates within the wider tourism marketing profession that spend on destination marketing does not directly lead to increases in visitation and that is a necessity to remain competitive (i.e., a hygiene factor), as other destinations aggressively promote their wares.

3. At the time of data extraction from the raw IPS files, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) had discovered errors in the 2010 files and these were removed from the public domain. Quarterly data are the manner in which the survey data are collected. In 2009, the IPS employed a multistage random sample of over 311 000 people (representing about 0.2% of all travellers to and from the UK) who were interviewed at all major airports, sea routes, Eurostar terminals and on Eurotunnel trains. In order to extract information concerning international visitors to the various regions of Scotland, it was necessary to access the raw IPS files which are available in SPSS format from the UK Data Archive.

4. Counts for 1996 are omitted, since data for vacation nights to the Strathclyde–Loch Lomond, Glasgow–Clydeside and Tayside–Perthshire regions are missing from the IPS files for that year.

5. This spatial element is further developed by applying principal components analysis (PCA) to the regional GCs for vacation nights. PCA is a statistical method that permits a graphical representation of the spatial interrelationships that characterize regional seasonality. PCA has been shown to have application to a wide variety of spatial datasets and to the development of regional maps (Potter and Coshall, 1986). It is the starting point for a greater focus on the spatial analysis of seasonality. Regions whose GCs are strongly correlated with each other, yet which are largely unrelated to other regions, are combined into components. Several components comprising regions with similar patterns of seasonal intensity over time may be extracted via PCA.

6. The Scottish Government's (2010) classification of urban (more than 3000 people) and rural (fewer than 3000 people) zones categorizes this component as being entirely made up of accessible urban and rural areas. ‘Accessible’ is defined as being within a 30-minute drive-time of a settlement of 10 000 or more people.