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Summary
A description is given of a demographic model designed to predict the total number of families living in a particular area, and the structure of those families, at any future time. The model is implemented on a computer in the form of a finite state model with transition probabilities of movement from state to state which are estimated from demographic data on the population concerned.
The model incorporates fluctuations in the number of families living in the area through, for example, marriage and migration, and changes in the structure of families caused by birth, death, divorce and remarriage. Dependants living with families are also included in the model.
With parameters estimated from appropriate demographic material, the model is used to predict the number of families of the Coloured population group who will be living in the Metropolitan Area of Cape Town in the year 2000. Reliable predictions of such quantities are of great value to those concerned with planning adequate housing in the region.