THE DEMOGRAPHIC FORCES IN SOUTH AFRICA

Summary

This is an exposition of the demographic forces in action in South Africa and their outcome in the form of the size, age and sex and ethnic composition, spatial distribution, growth and growth prospects of the population. Having found that inaccurate and incomplete information had been proffered in census enumerations and in registrations of births and deaths while vital statistics were completely lacking in some cases, the relevant statistics had to be adjusted for these deficiencies and demographic magnitudes to be estimated or created anew.

These adjusted and estimated magnitudes intimate that the South African population in the aggregate has eventually reached the top of the explosive phase and its rate of growth may now be expected to decline or, at a minimum, to show no further rise. From 2,0% per annum during 1936–46 the rate of growth rose to 2,3% during 1946–51, to 2,4% in 1951–60, and to 2,8% during 1960–70, which latter figure has been maintained since then. This means that the decline in mortality is now being matched by a comparable decline in fertility. This phenomenon, pertaining to the aggregate population, is the result of the recent transition from very high to lower levels of fertility on the part of the Coloured and Black populations, since the Asian and White groups have passed this stage a long time ago already.

However, the relatively high death rate of 12–13 per 1000 among the former two groups imparts to them a considerable growth potential, in that a reduction of one-third within a short time is quite probable. The prospects are that despite a projected systematic decline in fertility a doubling of numbers in the aggregate within thirty years is to be expected. Economically the problem is that the development initiating portion of the expanding population will be diminishing. The economist views the proliferating numbers with trepidation.