Abstract
Objective: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of Tokyo guidelines (TG) 2018/2013 (TG18/TG13) and predictors of poor prognosis in acute cholangitis.
Methods: Retrospective 1-year study of consecutive hospital admissions for acute cholangitis. Prognosis was defined in terms of 30 d in-hospital mortality.
Results: Of the 183 patients with acute cholangitis, diagnostic accuracy based on Charcot’s triad, TG07 and TG18/TG13 was 67.8, 86.9 and 92.3% (p < .001), respectively. Regarding severity based on TG18/TG13, 30.6% of cases were severe. A poor prognosis was found in 10.9% of patients. After multivariate analysis, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg (OR 11.010; p < .001), serum albumin <3 g/dL (OR 1.355; p = .006), active oncology disease (OR 3.818; p = .006) and malignant aetiology of obstructive jaundice (OR 2.224; p = .021) were independent predictors of poor prognosis. The discriminative ability of the model with these four variables was high (AUROC 0.842; p < .001), being superior to TG18/TG13 (AUROC 0.693; p = .005).
Conclusions: TG18/TG13 showed high diagnostic accuracy in acute cholangitis. Compared with TG18/TG13, the simplified severity model ≥2 allows easy selection of patients who will benefit from admission to the intensive care unit and early biliary decompression.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.