Socio-Economic Development, Economic Fluctuations, and Age-Specific Suicide: A Cross-National Test of the Durkheim, Henry and Short, and Ginsberg Theories

ABSTRACT

This study draws on the theories of Durkheim, Henry and Short, and Ginsberg to assess the impact of short-term and long-term socio-economic change on suicide rates of different categories of age and gender. We employ a pooled cross-sectional time-series data set comprised of 17 Western European nations covering a period of over 50 years (1956–2012). Results from fixed-effect variable-parameter time-series regression models reveal that indicators of socio-economic change yield the strongest impact on suicide rates among males, primarily of working age. Nevertheless, crucial differences emerge across the three alternative theoretical models, which we address. We conclude by highlighting the utility of these models for predicting suicide rates across different categories of age and gender.

KEYWORDS:

• Theory
• Crime
• Law
• Deviance Comparative
• Historical Sociology

Notes

1. The exception was the percentage of Muslims, which was found to be a second-difference stationary process. As such, the second difference of this measure was always included in the analysis. This yielded similar results to those reported with the first difference of this measure.

2. In the preliminary results, we tested all three theoretical frameworks for total and gender-specific suicide rates for the 5–14 year age group. Results were nonsignificant for this category, with the following exceptions: a significant negative effect of the rate of changes in divorce rates for male suicide rates; significant negative effects of the rate of changes of birth rate and the rate of changes in the percent of Muslims for female suicide rates. For reasons of space, we excluded this age category from the final models (results available upon request).

3. With exception of these effects, divorce rates were found to be nonsignificant across the models. The lack of consistent significant effects of this measure contrasts with individual-level research that predominantly finds a significant relationship between divorce and suicide (for detailed review, see Stack 2000), with higher odds for suicide for those who divorce recently (Stack and Scourfield 2015). Findings of aggregate-level studies, however, seem to be less consistent (Stack 2000).

4. Aside from this, other variables often exhibited null effects across the models, suggesting that their significant effects may have occurred by chance. Accordingly, we further tested the three theoretical frameworks using total and gender-specific suicide rates (see supplementary materials). The findings parallel those presented above. Future research may further test the three theoretical frameworks without some of the variables (e.g., divorce rates) included in the models to ensure the robustness of our findings.