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Abstract
An assessment of likely and possible future developments in Soviet oil trade with the West takes as its point of departure past Soviet policy and behavior in the oil market as well as new constraints and opportunities in the economic and political environment. Under present conditions the income derived from oil exports continues to exceed marginal production costs, and thus oil exports seem likely to continue in the foreseeable future, as mediated by supply and political developments internally over the short term and the restructuring of domestic consumption over the long term.