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Abstract
In spite of the fact that substantial progress has been made in the improvement of relations between China and Taiwan,Footnote 1 there have been no talks on sensitive political issues. Beijing's proposal for a cross-strait peace agreement is put on hold. Disagreement over the sovereignty of one China and the political reality in Taiwan have conspired to create an apparent impasse and contributed to an indefinite delay of the negotiations. At the moment, a large section of Taiwanese people do not seem to want this peace agreement. The ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) cannot afford to start negotiations without a strong domestic consensus. This article examines the political situation in Taiwan, analyzes the main obstacles to reaching a cross-strait peace agreement, and explores possible solutions.
Notes
In this article, the term “China” is used to refer to the People's Republic of China, which is also officially referred to as “the Chinese mainland” by the government in Taiwan, as distinguished from the Republic of China on Taiwan. “China,” “the People's Republic of China,” and “the Chinese mainland” will be used interchangeably.
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Kenneth Lieberthal, “Preventing a war over Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs 84, no. 2 (2005): 53–63.
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Article 7 of the Anti-Secession Law, promulgated by the Chinese government on March 14, 2005, and released by the Xinhua News Agency on the same day.
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The CCP-KMT communiqué was released on April 29, 2005, and published in both the Chinese media and the mainstream media in Taiwan. See, for example, People Daily, April 30, 1.
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Mr. Chen was quoted in a New York Times report saying, “It is very clear now that if we were to sign such a peace treaty under the framework of the ‘one China’ principle, then I think this would mean, for the 23 million people of Taiwan, a treaty of surrender.” See Keith Bradsher, “Taiwan's Leader rejects a Chinese offer,” New York Times, October 19, 2007, A15. See also “Tailian: liang’an heping xieyi jiushi touxiang xieyi” (TSU: cross-strait peace agreement is an agreement of surrender), Central News Agency, October 20, 2009, http://daily.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=1086383&lang=eng_news&cate_img=257.jpg&cate_rss=news_PD&pg=1 (accessed March 14, 2011).
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See, for example, “the U.S-China Joint Statement” issued on January 19, 2011, during Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington. The joint statement states: “The United States applauded the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and welcomed the new lines of communications developing between them. The United States supports the peaceful development of relations across the Taiwan Strait and looks forward to efforts by both sides to increase dialogues and interactions in economic, political, and other fields, and to develop more positive and stable cross-Strait relations.” The White House Office of the Press Secretary, January 19, 2011, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/19/us-china-joint-statement (accessed January 20, 2011).
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Randall Schriver and Mark Stokes, “Taiwan's liberation of China,” Current History 107, no. 710 (2008): 276–81.
See, for example, Qing Zheng, “Luweihui mindiao 87.3% zhichi guangyi weichi xianzhuang” (MAC survey shows 87.3% support broadly defined status quo), China Times, January 8, 2011, http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/50505952/112011010800465.html (accessed January 8, 2011). See also the poll results posted online by the Mainland Affairs Council, http://www.mac.gov.tw/english/index1-e.htm, (accessed April 28, 2010).
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Chen Qimao, “The Taiwan strait's situation since Ma came to office and the conditions for cross-strait political negotiations: a view from Shanghai,” Journal of Contemporary China 20, no. 68, (2011): 155. Chen Qimao is president of the Shanghai Center for RIMPAC Strategic and International Studies, and senior advisor and professor of the School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
“Guomindang danhua yizhong, lu xuezhe jingya” (KMT plays down one China, Mainland scholars are surprised), China Times, November 15, 2009, http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/2007Cti-News-Content/0,4521,50103347+112009111500136,00,focus.html (accessed November 15, 2009).
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“Li Yafei: liang’an huxin jichu shi gongtong fan ‘taidu’ jianchi jiu er gongshi” (Li Yafei: cross-strait mutual trust is based on joint opposition to “Taiwan independence” and insistence on the 1992 consensus), China News Network, August 11, 2010, http://big5.bj.chinataiwan.org/gate/big5/www.chinataiwan.org/twrwk/zxdt/201008/t20100811_1487718.htm (accessed March 13, 2011).
“Sun Yafu: liang’an gaishan mianlin xin wenti” (Sun Yafu: the two sides face new issues in improving relationship), Radio Taiwan International, December 4, 2010, http://news.rti.org.tw/index_newsContent.aspx?nid=270687 (accessed March 13, 2011).
Chen Yujun, “Zunchong Sun Zhongshan zong neng qu Zhongguo hua?” (To honor Sun Yat-sen, then why desinicization?), China Times, August 19, 2010, http://news.chinatimes.com/forum/0,5252,11051401x112010081900451,00.html (accessed August 19, 2010). See also Chen Qimao, “The Taiwan strait's situation since Ma came to office and the conditions for cross-strait political negotiations: a view from Shanghai,” Journal of Contemporary China 20, no. 68, (2011): 158.
Wang Mingyi, “Lan mei fan taidu, Lu buyao jiu er gongshi, Beijing zhi you” (Blue camp doesn't oppose Taiwan independence. Green camp doesn't support the 1992 consensus. Beijing is worried.), China Times, January 23, 2011, http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/110505/112011012300140.html (accessed January 23, 2011).
Hong Zhaojun, “Xiao Wanchang: Hu Jintao ceng shuo jiu er gongshi ji yi zhong ge biao” (Vincent Siew: Hu Jintao said the 1992 consensus means one China, different interpretations), China Times, August 13, 2010, http://news.chinatimes.com/focus/0,5243,50106239×112010081300143,00.html (accessed August 13, 2010).
Ni Hongxiang, “Ma Ying-jeou: jiu er gongshi shi liang’an guanxi jishi” (Ma Ying-jeou: the 1992 consensus is the bedrock of cross-strait relations), China Review News, December 23, 2010, http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1015/4/7/9/101547943.html?coluid=93&kindid=4030&docid=101547943 (accessed March 13, 2011).
Zheng Min-sheng and Qiu Peifen, “Jianchi jiu er gongshi, Ma ling guanyuan jin cheng dui’an wei ‘Zhongguo’” (Stick to the 1992 consensus, Ma forbids officials to call the mainland “China”), China Times, February 8, 2011, http://news.chinatimes.com/focus/50108021/112011020800079.html (accessed February 9, 2011).
“Yingguo Jinrong Shibao zhuanfang Ma Ying-jeou zongtong wenda quanwen” (Full text of British newspaper Financial Times interview of President Ma Ying-jeou), Radio Taiwan International March 8, 2011, http://news.rti.org.tw/index_newsContent.aspx?nid=284531 (accessed March 8, 2011).
Chen Sihao, “Liang’an xianzhuang, Ma: hu bu chengren zhuquan, hu bu fouren zhiquan” (Current cross-strait status quo—Ma: non-recognition of each other's sovereignty, non-denial of each other's jurisdiction), United Daily News, March 10, 2011, http://www.udn.com/2011/3/10/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT1/6201550.shtml (accessed March 20, 2011).
Lynn T. White, “War or peace over Taiwan?” China Information 14, no. 1 (2000): 8–9.
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This position was reasserted recently by Lai Shin-Yuan, head of Taiwan's cabinet level Mainland Affairs Council, when she responded to questions at Taiwan's Legislative Yuan. See Tang Bin, “Lai Shin-Yuan: jiu er gongshi wei renmin jiejue wenti” (Lai Shin-Yuan: the 1992 consensus solves a problem for the people), China Times, December 31, 2010, http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/0,5245,110505×112010123100192,00.html (accessed December 31, 2010).
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Chen Sihao, “Liang’an xianzhuang, Ma: hu bu chengren zhuquan, hu bu fouren zhiquan” (Current cross-strait status quo—Ma: non-recognition of each other's sovereignty, non-denial of each other's jurisdiction), United Daily News, March 10, 2011, http://www.udn.com/2011/3/10/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT1/6201550.shtml (accessed March 20, 2011). See also “Zhang Ronggong dui Ma Ying-jeou de gainian jieshi de hen qingchu” (Zhang Ronggong explained Ma Ying-jeou's concepts clearly), Central Daily News, March 19, 2011, http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews_site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=111&docid=101474848 (accessed March 20, 2011).
Kenneth Lieberthal, “Preventing a war over Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs 84, no. 2 (2005): 60–1.
Article 8 of the law states that “non-peaceful means” will be used when Taiwan's secession from China—by whatever means and under whatever names—becomes a fait-accompli, when a major incident leading to Taiwan's inevitable secession from China has occurred, and when peaceful re-unification becomes completely impossible.
Quansheng Zhao, “Beijing's dilemma with Taiwan: war or peace?” The Pacific Review 18, no. 2 (2005): 217–42.
Kenneth Lieberthal, “Preventing a war over Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs 84, no. 2 (2005): 60–1.
Chen Qimao, “The Taiwan strait's situation since Ma came to office and the conditions for cross-strait political negotiations: a view from Shanghai,” Journal of Contemporary China vol. 20, no. 68, January 2011, 154–157.
See, for example, Jenny W. Hsu, “TSU chairman says no need to sign peace treaty,” Taipei Times, October 21, 2009, 3.
See Chen Qinhao, “Liang’an heping xieyi: Taiwan anquan de shouhu shen” (Cross-strait peace agreement: guardian angel for Taiwan's security), China Review News, December 31, 2009, http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1011/5/2/4/101152432.html?coluid=63&kindid=0&docid=101152432&mdate=0104120600 (accessed March 13, 2010). By “foundation for peace,” he may be referring to the one-China principle.
Qing Zheng, “Luweihui mindiao 87.3% zhichi guangyi weichi xianzhuang” (MAC survey shows 87.3% support broadly defined status quo), China Times January 8, 2011, http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/50505952/112011010800465.html (accessed January 8, 2011). See also the poll results posted online by the Mainland Affairs Council, http://www.mac.gov.tw/english/index1-e.htm (accessed April 28, 2010).
“Yingguo Jinrong Shibao zhuanfang Ma Ying-jeou zongtong wenda quanwen” (Full text of British newspaper Financial Times interview of President Ma Ying-jeou), Radio Taiwan International, March 8, 2011, http://news.rti.org.tw/index_newsContent.aspx?nid=284531 (accessed March 8, 2011).
In a conference held in Taipei in November 2009, Li Jijun, a retired general of the Chinese military and former vice-president of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, claimed that Taiwan would have no security concerns if it completely abandoned Taiwan independence. See Chen Dongxu, “Liang’an yantao hui—Li Jijun: bu taidu jiu anquan” (Cross-strait symposium—Li Jijun: no independence and Taiwan will have security), United Daily News, November 15, 2009, http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/MAI1/5251746.shtml (accessed November 15, 2009).
See, for example, Lee Tuo-tzu, “No consensus without consent of all,” Taipei Times editorial, September 2, 2011, 8. See also report “Tsai Ing-wen neng baituo Aomen mushi de kunjing ma?” (Can Tsai Ing-wen solve the dilemma of the Macao model?), by China Times, May 15, 2011, http://news.chinatimes.com/forum/11051402/112011051300122.html (accessed May 13, 2011).
Mo Yan-chih and Chris Wang, “KMT, DPP trade barbs over ‘Taiwan consensus’,” Taipei Times September 16, 2011, 1.
“Don't repudiate ‘1992 consensus,’ PRC official warns,” Taipei Times, September 16, 2011, 3. See also “Minjindang du Hu Jintao bugan ting duan liang’an xieyi” (The DPP gambles that Hu Jintao would not dare to end cross-strait agreements), United Daily News editorial, June 11, 2011, http://udn.com/NEWS/OPINION/OPI1/6392235.shtml (accessed June 11, 2011); and report by Lian Junwei, “Jia Qinglin: fandui taidu, jianchi jiu er gongshi” (Jia Qinglin: oppose Taiwan independence, insist on the 1992 consensus), China Times, May 8, 2011, http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/50507004/112011050800176.html (accessed May 8, 2011). Jia Qinglin is a member of the CCP politburo's standing committee, which is the top leadership body of the CCP.
See, for example, “Wang Yi: qiu tong cun yi zhengshi ‘jiu er gongshi’ de jingsui” (Wang Yi: seeking common ground while having differences is the essence of the 1992 consensus), China Review News, March 25, 2011, http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1016/3/9/9/101639902.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=101639902 (accessed March 25, 2011). Wang Yi is the head of China's cabinet-level Taiwan Affairs Office.