Avoiding an unintentional space war: Lessons from Cold War nuclear diplomacy

ABSTRACT

The realm of outer space is becoming increasingly crowded and more contested – conditions that increase the risk that a conflict could arise. Given that there has never been a war in space, countries have little experience to draw upon to predict what behavior might motivate a potential competitor to respond with threatening actions – and how quickly and in what manner those actions could escalate to a full-blown conflict. To help control this situation, we may want to take a look at what was done during the Cold War, when concerns about unintentional escalation focused on nuclear weapons.

KEYWORDS:

• Space-based weapons
• space command
• nuclear diplomacy
• Cold War
• escalation; confidence-building measures
• outer space security
• nuclear weapons

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Rebecca Hersman, Eric Brewer, Frank Rose, Jamie Morin, Dave Eccles, Russell Rumbaugh, Mick Gleason, Robin Dickey, Aaron Bateman and Kaitlyn Johnson.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Additional information

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Notes on contributors

Maxwell Simon

Maxwell Simon is a program coordinator and research assistant with the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. His research focuses on how emerging technologies intersect with nuclear weapons issues. He is part of a team creating a multi-phase outer space-based arms control negotiation simulation exercise, for use by early and mid-career researchers from academic, military, government, and private sector backgrounds. He received his bachelor’s degree from Harvard University, where he studied government and history.

Sam Wilson

Sam Wilson is a policy analyst for the Center for Space Policy & Strategy at the Aerospace Corporation, a federally funded research and development center, where he works on international space, missile, and space security issues. His work has been featured in the Washington Post, Politico, Kyodo News, Japan Today, Space News, Breaking Defense, and The Diplomat, among other outlets. He previously served as a senior defense analyst at the US Government Accountability Office. You can follow him on Twitter at @spacenukesam.