Dealignment, realignment and generational differences in The Netherlands

Abstract

A central question in Western European electoral research is whether electoral changes over the past decades should be interpreted in terms of dealignment or realignment. Although many scholars study this question, they have not paid much attention to the role of generational replacement. This ‘age-period-cohort’ (APC) study fills this void by examining the last 10 national elections in the Netherlands (1986–2017). The hypothesis is tested that the determinants of party choice differ systematically across generations. With regard to period effects, it is found that the association between party preference and its predictors has mainly weakened. Over generations, contrarily no decreasing associations are found. The effects of religion, social class, partisanship, left–right and redistribution have not structurally decreased with each successive generation, whereas the effects of education, immigration and European unification are stronger for younger generations. Taken together, these findings reveal how dealignment over time can co-exist with realignment over generations.

Keywords:

• Political socialisation
• generations
• realignment
• dealignment
• party system change

Acknowledgements

We are grateful for the constructive criticism of the anonymous reviewers of West European Politics. We also received valuable suggestions when presenting earlier versions of this paper in the workshop on electoral democracy at the ECPR joint sessions in April 2019 in Mons and at the University of Nottingham and the University of Gothenburg.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by a grant from the Dutch Research Council (NWO). Grant number: VI.Veni.191R.039.

Notes on contributors

Wouter van der Brug

Wouter van der Brug is Professor of Political Science at the University of Amsterdam. His research interests focus on comparative research in collective political behaviour, in particular electoral behaviour, right-wing populism and political parties. [[email protected]]

Roderik Rekker

Roderik Rekker is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Amsterdam and at the University of Gothenburg. He is a political scientist and a psychologist. His research interests focus on stability and change in political attitudes across time, generations and the lifespan. [[email protected]]