Turning assertive? EU rule of law enforcement in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine

Abstract

When dealing with EU’s rule of law (RoL)-related issues, the Commission has often adopted a forbearance approach and the actions taken have crystallised in soft enforcement mechanisms directed at Poland. However, the use of the Conditionality Regulation as an enforcement instrument in 2022 in relation to (lack of) RoL compliance signalled a change into an assertive approach towards Hungary. Why so? This paper argues that exogenous events may change policy priorities and linkage of issues explain this change. Russian aggression against Ukraine prompted a shift in the priorities of member states’ governments making them more receptive towards EU Commission enforcement actions. The Hungarian government’s friendly attitude towards Russia clashes with the position of most member states and the Commission itself. Orban’s partial isolation makes the Commission more willing to exercise RoL enforcement initiatives. Hence, supranational RoL-related forbearance is, at least in critical situations, affected by the calculus of opportunity that the Commission derives from other policy areas. Empirically, the process is traced through official/public documents and statements made by EU actors.

Keywords:

• Rule of law
• enforcement
• forbearance
• Ukraine war
• European Commission

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Sonia Rodrigo for her research assistance in expanding the annexes. We would also like to thank the WEP anonymous reviewers and editors, who provided excellent comments on the article.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 See Online Appendix I, observation no. 274

2 275, 276, 277, 278, 279

3 280

4 282, 283

5 281

6 284

7 285

8 272, 93

9 273, 300, 304, 327, 452, 454

10 455

11 173, 181

12 382

13 172, 451, 453, 457, 459

14 44, 169, 186, 187, 206, 207, 219

15 76, 77, 141

16 194, 195, 196, 213

17 78, 141

18 168

19 199

20 196, 215, 461

21 527

22 515, 516

23 518, 521

24 520

25 462, 463, 464, 491

26 490

27 200, 266, 531, 532, 533, 534, 535, 536

28 497, 537, 538, 493, 494

29 478, 479, 480, 481, 482, 483, 484, 485, 486, 497, 488

30 496

31 11, 24, 40, 45, 56, 62, 69, 104, 166

32 22

33 32

34 15, 19, 22

35 55, 117

36 52, 105

37 3, 4, 5, 25, 26, 27, 37, 38, 39, 41, 42, 43, 63, 64, 65, 125, 134, 137, 139, 160, 161

38 40, 45, 69

39 54, 140

40 20, 23

41 6, 7, 10, 28, 29, 34, 35

42 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 108, 109, 110, 111, 138

43 13, 47, 46, 48, 49, 91, 92, 112

44 12

45 17

46 133

47 149

48 173, 181

49 172, 174, 175, 176, 177

50 188, 189, 190, 191

51 170, 171

52 528

53 529

54 182, 289, 324

55 289, 325

56 247, 258, 270, 294, 338, 402, 426, 433, 443, 446, 477, 505

57 242, 244, 245, 246, 248, 253, 254, 255, 295, 296, 297, 339, 340, 341, 390, 391, 392, 427, 428, 429, 444, 447, 506, 507, 508

58 180, 325

59 470, 471

60 236

61 237, 239, 240, 251, 252, 344, 404, 414

62 331, 529, 530

63 382

64 407, 408, 458, 459

65 501, 512, 513, 514

66 458

67 1, 8, 21, 25, 60, 59, 68

68 57, 72

69 73

70 53, 54

71 2, 292, 293

72 31, 102, 103

73 61

74 58

75 79

76 93

77 75, 94, 146

78 83, 113, 114, 156, 193, 269, 290, 291, 305, 329

79 84, 120, 123, 157, 185, 197, 217, 224, 225, 226, 229, 232, 233, 261, 268

80 130, 143, 144, 147, 148, 165, 167

81 221, 222, 223, 231, 241, 257, 287, 288

82 343

83 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 262, 263, 264

84 30, 81, 85, 118, 119, 122, 124

85 348, 349, 350

86 67, 80, 82, 89, 163

87 184, 228, 333, 361

88 403, 435, 436, 437

89 87, 88

90 260, 299, 330

91 306 to 323

92 146, 192, 208, 209, 210, 249, 250, 301, 302, 303, 326, 336, 337

93 327, 354

94 540

95 372, 373, 374, 376

96 342, 345, 346, 351, 352, 362, 366, 367, 368, 369, 377, 378, 379, 384, 393, 394, 396, 397, 399, 400, 421, 431, 438

97 411

98 410, 419

99 448, 450

100 451, 452, 453, 454, 457, 472

101 406

102 462, 463, 464, 473, 474, 475, 491

103 465, 466, 467, 468, 469, 478

104 484, 485, 486, 487, 488

105 492

106 499

107 500

Additional information

Funding

The article is part of the project on Institutional design for enforcing Rule of Law compliance in the EU (InDeComply Project, Grant PID2021-122448NB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033). One of the authors received support from Grant FPU20/01664 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 for developing her PhD thesis.

Notes on contributors

Gisela Hernández

Gisela Hernández is currently developing her Ph.D. project on rule of law enforcement in the European Union at the Institute of Public Goods and Policies of the Spanish National Research Council (IPP-CSIC) and Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM). She has been visiting researcher at the Institute for European Studies of the Université libre de Bruxelles (IEE-ULB). She has published in Politics and Governance and The Hague Journal on the Rule of Law. [[email protected]]

Carlos Closa

Carlos Closa is Vice-President for Organisation and Institutional Relations of the Spanish National Research Council and Research Professor at the Institute of Public Goods and Policies. He is also Professor at the School of Transnational Governance at the EUI. He was co-editor of the European Political Science Review until 2021. [[email protected]]