Nuclear Incoherence: Deterrence Theory and Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Russia

Abstract

Russian reliance on its non-strategic nuclear arsenal has been an ongoing concern for security experts. What is the Russian de facto employment doctrine for this arsenal? This article argues that Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) have no defined mission and no deterrence framework has been elaborated for them. This study disentangles Russian thoughts and deeds about regional nuclear deterrence and the role of NSNW in it. Situating the Russian case in the comparative context, the article argues that establishing a coherent theater nuclear posture and streamlining it with the national level deterrence strategy is a demanding and frequently unfulfilled task. It is likely to remain as such for both current and prospective nuclear states that consider an asymmetrical deterrence posture.

Key Words:

• Deterrence
• Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons
• Nuclear Strategy

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Nehemia Burgin, Mark Chlenov, Assif Efrat, Alexander Goltz, Eugene Gholz, Jacqueline Deal, Alexei Fenenko, Beatrice Heuser, Amir Lupovici, Jeffrey Knopf, Assaf Moghadam, Vipin Narang, William Potter, Stephen Rosen, Adam Stulberg, Nokolai Sokov, Vitalii Shlykov (late) and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and advice.

Notes

¹Micah Zenko, Towards Deeper Reductions in US and Russian Nuclear Weapons (Washington DC: Council on Foreign Relations, Nov. 2010), 10, 21; Office of the Secretary of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report (Washington DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense 2010), x, xi, 27–8.

²See James T. Quinlivan and Olga Oliker, Nuclear Deterrence in Europe (Santa Monica, CA: RAND 2011); Roger N. McDermott, Russia’s Conventional Military Weakness and Substrategic Nuclear Policy (Fort Leavenworth, KS: FMSO 2011); Miles Pomper, William Potter and Nikolai Sokov, ‘Reducing Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe’, Survival 52/1 (2010), 75–96. Stephen Blank, Russian Military Politics (Carlisle, PA: US Army Strategic Studies Institute 2011).

³Vipin Narang, ‘Posturing for Peace? Pakistan’s Nuclear Posture and South Asian Stability,’ International Security 34/3 (Winter 2009/10), 40–1.

⁴Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznobishchev, Contemporary Nuclear Doctrines (Moscow: IMEMO RAN 2010), 4–5, 13–14; Narang, ‘Posturing for Peace?’, 44.

⁵Arbatov et al., Contemporary Nuclear Doctrines, 25.

⁶Ibid., 9.

⁷Ibid.

⁸Ibid., 25.

⁹Kontseptsiia natsionalnoi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii, Dec. 1997; Voennaia doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii, April 2000; Aktual’nye zadachi razvitiya vooruzhennykh Sil RF, March, 2003; Voennaia doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii, Feb. 2010; Andrei Kokoshin, Armiia I politika (Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia 1995), 243–4, 256; Andrei Kokoshin, Strategicheskoe upravlenie (Moscow: ROSPEN 2003), 315–19, fn.31, 32, 33; Nikolai Efimov, Politiko-Voennye Aspekty Natsional’noi Bezopsnosti Rossii (Moscow: URSS 2006), 108–10, 121–5.

¹⁰Hans Kristensen, Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons, Special report no.3 (Federation of American Scientists 2012), 78; Dmitry Trenin, Russia’s Nuclear Policy in the 21^st Century Environment (Paris: IFRI 2005), 9; McDermott, Russia’s Conventional Military, 12; Andrei Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Posture, Politics and Arms Control (Hamburg: Hamburger Beitrage 2011), 24; Vladimir Dvorkin, ‘Prazhskii rubezh poriden’, NVO, 4 Feb. 2011.

¹¹For example see S.V. Kreidin, ‘Global’noe I regional’noe sderzhivanie’, VM, no.4 (1999); V.I. Levshin, A.V. Nedelin and M.E. Sosnovskii, ‘O primenenii iadernogo oruzhiia dlia deeskalatsii voennykh deistvii’, VM, no.3 (1999); Aleksei Arbatov, Uravnenie bezopasnosti (Moscow: RODP Iabloko 2010), 257; Kokoshin, Obespechenie, 96; D’iakov et al., Nestrategicheskoe, 13; Litovkin, ‘Genshtab informiruet’; V.V. Sukhorutchenko and S.V. Kreidin, ‘Aktualnye probelmy iadernogo sderzhivaniia’, VM, no.7 (2004); Ivan Safranchiuk, ‘Kakie iadernye sily I politika neobkhodimy Rossii,’ Voprosy bezopasnsoti, 15 Dec. 1998; Ivan Safranchiuk, ‘TIaO Rossii,’ Voprosy bezopasnosti, 11 Jan. 1998; Aleksandr Radchiuk, ‘Bol’shaia iadernaia igra v XXI veke’, Indeks bezopasnsoti 92/1 (2010).

¹²For example see: I. Sergeev, ‘Osnovy voenno-tekhnicheskoi politiki Rossii, KZ, 9 Dec. 1999. Kokoshin, Strategicheskoe Upravlenie, 317–18; ‘Iadernyi vek’, Voenno-isotricheskii zhurnal 1/1 (2000); V. Vakhrushev, ‘Lokal’nue voiny I vooruzhennye knflikty’, VM, no.4 (1999); E. Korotchenko, ‘Tendencii razvitiia sovremennogo operativnogo isskustva’, VM, no.1 (1999); Levshin et al., ‘O primenenii iadernogo’; A. Arbatov, ‘Voennaia reforma Rossii,’ NVO, 12 July 1997; V. Kruglov and M. Sosnovskii, ‘O role nestrategicheskogo iadernogo oruzhiia’, VM, no.1 (1997). V.A. Ivasik, A.S. Pis’iakuv and V.E. Khriapin, ‘Iaedernoe oruzhie I voennaia bezopasnost’ Rossii’, VM, no.4 (1999); A.S. Rukshin, ‘Iadernoe sderzhivanie’, VM, no.6 (2000); A. Protasov, S. Kreidin and S. Egorov, ‘Sistemy upravleniia voiskami (silami) kak instrument strategichekogo sderzhivaniia’, VM, no.7 (2009).

¹³Safranchiuk, ‘TIaO Rossii’; Ivan Safranchiuk, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World: A Russian Perspective,’ in Brian Alexander and Alistair Millar, Tactical Nuclear Weapons (Washington DC: Brassey’s 2003), 45–68; A.S. D’iakov, E.V. Miasnikov and T.T. Kadyshev, Nestrategicheskoe iadernoe oruzhie: Problemy kontrolia I sokrascheniia (Dolgoprudnyi: Tsentr po Izucheniiu Provlem Razoruzheniia, Energetiki I Ekologii pri MFTI 2004), 8–13.

¹⁴Amy Woolf, Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons (Washington DC: CRS 2012), 5–7; Kristensen, Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons, 9–10.

¹⁵Woolf, Non-Strategic; Kristensen, Non-Strategic; Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris, ‘Russian Nuclear Forces, 2012’, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 68/2 (2012), 87–97.

¹⁶Tu-22 is part of the Russian Long Range (Strategic) Aviation Forces. However, it is not counted by START. In that sense, Tu-22 can be seen as a strategic platform delivering non-strategic nuclear weapons.

¹⁷Kristensen Non-Strategic, 45.

¹⁸D’iakov et al., Nestrategicheskoe iadernoe oruzhie; Sergei Rogov, ‘Shestaia popytka’, NVO, 9 April 2010; Aleksei Arbatov, ‘Takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie’, VPK, 5 May 2010.

¹⁹Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris, ‘Russian Nuclear Forces, 2011’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 67/3 (2011); Pomper et al., ‘Reducing Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe.’

²⁰Safranchiuk, ‘Kakie iadernye sily’; Safranchiuk ‘TIaO Rossii’; Dmitrii Andreev, ‘Arkhitektura Iadernoi Bezopasnosti’, KZ, 5 Sept. 2007; Nikolai Poroskov, ‘Takticheskii iadernyi kozyr’, Vremia novostei, 7 Sept. 2007; Arbatov, ‘Takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie’; D’iakov et al., Nestrategicheskoe iadernoe oruzhie, 22–3; Vladimir Verkhovtsev, ‘O galvnom iadrnom upravlenii’, Index bezopasnsoti 83/3 (2007) Vitalii Denisov, ‘Khraniteli iadernogo arsenala’, KZ, 4 Sept. 2009.

²¹See: ‘U nas sluzhat liudi osobogo riska,’ Orientir 11 (2007); Arbatov, ‘Takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie’; Arbatov, Uravnenie, 257; Litovkin, ‘Genshtab informiruet’; Denisov, ‘Khraniteli’; Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 17, 26–7.

²²See Kristensen, Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons, 45.

²³Arbatov, ‘Takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie’; Iurii Fedorov, ‘Do strategicheskoe iadernoe oruzhie’, Iadernyi control 7/4 (2002).

²⁴Yuri Fedorov, ‘Russia: New Inconstant Nuclear Thinking and Policy’, in Muthia Alagappa (ed.), The Longer Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in the 21st Century Asia (Stanford UP 2008), 141–3; Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 26–7; Trenin, Russia’s Nuclear Policy, 12; Safranchiuk, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons’, 55–6; V.N. Tsigichko and A.A. Piontkovskii, ‘Vozmozhnye vyzovy’, VM, no.2 (2002); Aleksandr Khramchihin, ‘Neadekvatnyi vostok’, NVO, 23 July 2010.

²⁵Genadii Puln, ‘Atomnyi glavk’, VPK, 12 Sept. 2007; Nikolai Poroskov, ‘Iadernyi forspost,’ 7 July 2007; Poroskov, ‘Takticheskii iadernyi kozyr’, 7 Sept. 2007; Editorial, ‘Vot takaia taktika,’ NVO, 9 Nov. 2007; Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 26.

²⁶Stephen Blank, Russia in the Arctic (Carlisle, PA: US Army Strategic Studies Institute 2011); Andrei Evdokimov, ‘Rossiia v koltse ugroz’, Zaschita I bezopasnost’, no.4 (2009); Roger Howard, ‘Russia’s New Front Line’, Survival 52/1 (2010), 141–56; Michael Wallance and Steven Staples, Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons (Ottawa: Canadian Pugwash Group March 2010).

²⁷See Zargoski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons,’ 26; Fedorov, ‘Russia: New Inconstant Nuclear Thinking and Policy,’ 144; A.V. Bedritskii and S.M. Ermakov, ‘Iadernoe sderzhivanie v sovremennukh usloviiakh,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 53/4 (2010), 2–16.

²⁸Alexei Arbatov, Gambit or Endgame? (Moscow: Carnegie Center 2011), 2, 14, 30; Ruslan Pukhov, ‘Neiadernyi mir nam ne po karmany,’ NVO, 8 Oct. 2010; Dmitrii Suslov, ‘Ot pariteta k razumnoi dostatochnosti’, Rossiia v global’noi I vneschnei politike 8/6 (2010), 63

²⁹Arbatov, Gambit or Endgame?, 2, 20.

³⁰Ibid., 10–20; E.S. Sirotin, ‘Sderzhivanie agressii v kontekste novoi voennoi doktriny,’ VM, no. 5 (2010), 5–6; Evgeny Miasnikov, ‘Counterforce Potential’, in Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, Nuclear Disarmament (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center 2009); Anatoly Diakov and Evgeny Miasnikov, Prompt Global Strike (Moscow: MFTI Center for Arms Control 2007); Suslov, ‘Ot pariteta’, 62–4; Oleg Shulga, ‘Mozhno li postroit’ zont nad propost’iu’, NVO, 24 June 2011.

³¹Arbatov, Gambit or Endgame?, 21–31; Arbatov, ‘Takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie’; Sergei Sukhanov and Vladimir Grin’ko, ‘Strategiia sderzhivaniia’, Natsional’naia Oborona, no. 12 (2010); Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 27–8; I.G. Bustrova, V.V. Kreitinin and N.I. Shentsev, ‘Elektromagnitnye boepripasy protivovozdushnoi oborony’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 51/2 (2010), 10–17.

³²Narang, ‘Posturing for Peace?,’ 40–1.

³³Sergeev, ‘Osnovy voenno-tekhnicheskoi’; Kokoshin, Strategicheskoe Upravlenie, 317–18; ‘Iadernyi vek’, VIZh, no.1 (2000).

³⁴Kokoshin, Armiia I politika, 256; Vakhrushev, ‘Lokal’nue voiny’; Korotchenko, ‘Tendencii razvitiia’; Levshin et al., ‘O primenenii iadernogo’; Alexey Arbatov, ‘Voennaia reforma’, MEiMO, no.4 (1997), 5–21; Arbatov, ‘Voennaia reforma Rossii’; Kruglov and Sosnovskii, ‘O role nestrategicheskogo’; Ivasik et al., ‘Iaedernoe oruzhie’; Rukshin, ‘Iadernoe sderzhivanie.’

³⁵Kokoshin, Armiia I politika, 256; V.P. Kozlov, ‘VVS Rossii v sovremennoi voine’, VM, no.6 (1999); Ivasik et al., ‘Iaedernoe oruzhie’; A.G. Tsymbalov and S.Ia. Riazin, ‘O trebovaniiakh k sisteme vooruzhenii,’ VM, no.6 (2004); M.V. Fomin, ‘Osobennosti formirovaniia ratsionalnoi sistemy’, VM, no.5 (2007).

³⁶Kreidin, ‘Global’noe I regional’noe’; and Kreidin, ‘Problemy iadernogo sderzhivania’ VM, no.3–4 (2000); E.N. Akhemrov, N.F. Kravchenko and I.I. Sobachenko, ‘O napravlenii regionalnogo iadernogo sderzhivaniia,’ VM, no.4 (2000); Sukhorutchenko and Kreidin, ‘Aktualnye probelmy’; Dmitrii Andreev, ‘Garant mira I bezopasnosti’, KZ, 16 Dec. 2009.

³⁷V.M. Burenok and O.B. Achasov, ‘Neiadernoe sderzhivanie’, VM, no.12 (2007); V.V. Sukhorutchenko, A.B. Zelvin and V.A. Sobolevskii, ‘Napravlenie issledovanii boevykh vozmozhnostei vysokotochnogo oruzhiia’, VM, no.8 (2009); R.G. Tagirov, Iu.A. Pecahtnov and V.M. Burenok, ‘K voprosu ob opredelenii urovnei nepriemlimosti posledstvii’, Vestnik AVN, no.1 (2009).

³⁸A.G. Saveliev, K Novoi Redaktsii Voennoi Doktriny (Moscow: URSS 2009), 182

³⁹Viktor Litovkin, ‘Andrei Kokoshin,’ NVO, 20 May 2011; Viktor Litovkin, ‘Bomba spravliaet iubilei,’ NVO, 26 Nov. 2010; Igor’ Varfolomeev, ‘Iadernaia deviatka,’ KZ, 25 May 2011; Viktor Ruchkin, ‘Balans interesov’, KZ, 28 Dec. 2010.

⁴⁰A.A. Kokoshin, Obespechenie strategicheskoi stabilnosti (Moscow: URSS 2009), 183–6; A.A. Kokoshin, Iadernye konflikty v XXI veke (Moscow: Media Press 2003), 87–91; Efimov, Politiko-Voennye Aspekty, 152–5.

⁴¹V.V. Matvichiuk and A.L. Khriapin, ‘Sistema strategicheskogo sderzhivaniia’, VM, no.1 (2010); V.V. Matvichiuk and A.L. Khriapin, ‘Metodicheskii podkhod k otsenki effektinvosti,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nsot’ 46/1 (2009), 51–5; S.A. Bogdanov and V.N. Gorbunov, ‘O kharaktere vooruzhennoi bor’by’, VM, no.3 (2009); V.P. Grishin and S.V. Udaltsov, ‘Iadernoe sderzhivanie,’ Vestnik AVN, no.1 (2008); V.V. Korobushin, ‘Nadezhnoe strategicheskoe iadernoe sderzhivanie,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 46/1 (2009), 14–18; A.A. Protasov and S.V. Kreidin, ‘Sistemy upravleniai voiskami’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 46/1 (2009), 23–6; Iu.D. Bukreev, ‘Puti povusheniia beosposobnosti sukhoputnykh voisk’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 46/1 (2009), 32–4; V.V. Korobushin, V.I. Kovalev and G.N. Vinokurov, ‘Predelusokrascheniia SIaS Rossii,’ Vestnik AVN 28/3 (2009); A.V. Muntianu and R.G. Tagirov, ‘Nekotorye problemnye voprosy v obespechenii voennoi bezopasnosti’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 53/4 (2010), 69; A.V. Muntianu and R.G. Tagirov, ‘O nekotorukh aspektakh vlianiia globalizatsii,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nsot’ 54/1 (2011), 25–8; Iu.A. Pechatnov, ‘Metod formirovaniia ratsionalnogo sostava grupirovki osnaschennoi vusokotochnum oruzhiem’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nsot’ 53/4 (2010), 58–64.

⁴²Levshin et al., ‘O primenenii iadernogo’; Admiral Viktor Kravchenko, ‘Flot v sovremennoi voine,’ Morskaia gazeta, 14 April 2003; P.I. Dubok and, N.A. Zakaldaev, ‘O nekotorykh voprosakh upravleniia raketnymi voiskami I artilleriei’, VM, no.6 (1999);

⁴³Artem Troitskii, ‘Boevoi opyt Iuzhnoi Osetii’, VPK 225/39 (2008); Valerii Kovalenko, ‘Inzhenery zelo potrebny’, Na Strazhe Rodiny, 22 Jan. 2004; A.I. Kaliastrov, ‘K voprosu o fromakh I sposobakh vedeniia vooruzhennoi bor’by’, VM, no.12 (2003); Oleg Burtsev, ‘Bulava poletit, v etom net somnenii’, RIAN, 23 March 2009. D’iakov et al., Nestrategicheskoe, 16.

⁴⁴For example: a combat manual for operational-tactical fire and nuclear destruction: K.A. Trotsenko, ‘Orealizatsii boevykh vozmozhnsotei takticheskoi gruppirovki voisk’ VM, no.6 (2008); Difficulties in simulating nuclear-related training: Iu.N. Golubev and V.N. Kartin, ‘O neobkhodimosti novoi paradigmy voenno-nauchnykh issleddovanii’, VM, no.1 (2008); Nuclear supplies for troops: Aleksandr Zviagintsev, ‘Nachinaia s soldata, otdelenia, rascheta,’ Armeiskii sbornik, no. 5 (2007); Questions related to using tactical nuclear weapons in a counter-offensive: M.I. Orlov, ‘Nekotorye problemnye voprosy podgotovki I vedeniia nastupatel’nykh operatsii,’ VM, no.7 (2005); The command and control needs: V.A. Grigriev and I.A. Khvorov, ‘Sostoiania I perspektivy razvtiia voennykh system sputnikovoi sviazi,’ VM, no.8 (2007); Combat duties and scenarios of accumulating a nuclear arsenal in the general purpose forces: V.I. Lumpov and N.P. Bagmet, ‘K voprosu o iadernom sderzhivanii’, VM, no.6 (2002).

⁴⁵Simon Saradzhyan, Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Their Current Configuration and Posture (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School 2010).

⁴⁶Oleg Falichev, ‘Bog voiny v zapas ne ukhodit’, VPK, 19 Nov. 2003; Sergei Bogatynov, ‘V nogu so vremenem’, Rossiiskoe voennoe obozrenie, no. 11 (2009); Artem Troitskii, ‘Iskander ne promahnetsia’, VPK, 26 Nov. 2008.

⁴⁷Dubok and Zakaldaev, ‘O nekotorykh voprosakh’; Iu.V. Terentiev, V.V. Tarzanov and P.I. Dubok, ‘Organy upravleniia RViA,’ VM, no.5 (2001); V.K. Kadiuk, ‘O Sovershenstvovanii organizatsii operativnogo obespecheniia deistvii voisk’, VM, no.9 (2004). G.M. Nysev, Iu.V. Teren’t’ev and D.I. Lezhnev, ‘Avtomatizorovannaia sistema upravlenniia RViA’, VM, no.10 (2004); Sergei Sokut, ‘Osnovnoe sredstvo porazheniia protivnika’, NVO, 13 Nov. 1998; I.A. Karpov and A.E. Gvozdev, ‘Napravleniia razvitiia vysokotochnogo oruzhiia RViA’, VM, no.3 (2011), 18–23; V.I. Vypasniak, ‘Avtomatizatsiia planirovaniia ogenvogo’, VM, no.4 (2004); Evgenii Anisimov, ‘Iz pushek ne po vorob’iam’, KZ, 10 July 2009; V.N. Zaritskii, ‘O razrabotke novoi metodiki planirovaniia’, VM, no.12 (2006); ‘Ot ognia iz tiufiakov do raketnykh kompleksov’, VPK, 14 Nov. 2007; Editorial, ‘Otechestva schit ogenvoi’, Rossiskoe voennoe obozrenie, no.11 (2008), <http://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/ground/structure/rvia.htm>.

⁴⁸A.S. Bonin, ‘Evoliutsiia sistemy vooruzheniia aviatsii VVS’, VM, no.6 (2011), 34–41; Iu.P. Balyko and S.I. Pochuev, ‘Voenno-tekhnicheskaia politika RF’, VM, no.10 (2007); Fomin, ‘Osobennosti formirovaniia’; Aleksandr Aleksandrov, ‘Masshtab uchenii – strategicheskii’, KZ, 22 April 2011; A.N. Skorobogatyi and A.N. Chaplugin, ‘Metodicheskii pofhod k formirovaniiu ratsionalnogo arsenala,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nsot’ 48/3 (2009), 2–5; A.N. Skorobogatyi and R.G. Kozlov, ‘Metodika ratsionalnogo tselepraspredelniia sredstv porozheniia’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nsot’ 48/3 (2009), 13–14.

⁴⁹Aleksandr Pikaev, ‘Nestrategicheskie iadernye vooruzheniia’, in Aleksei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, Iadernoe rasprostranenie (Moscow: ROSSPEN 2009), 144–51; Safranchiuk, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons,’ 60–2; Valerii Guk, ‘V Astrakhanskoi stepi privolzhtsi rasstavili wse tochki nad I’, Soldat otechestva, 26 Feb. 2003; Valerii Guk, ‘Tochku v uchenii postavila tochka’, Orientir, 31 July 2003.

⁵⁰For the exercises up to 2004, see Nikolai Sokov, Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine – Significant Military Maneuvers (CNS Monterey Institute of International Studies Aug. 2004). For Mirnaia missiia-2005 see Iurii Klenov, ‘Na zemle, v nebesakh v more’, Armeiskii sbornik, 31 Dec. 2005; R. Severin, ‘Rossiia I Kitai dadut otpor agressoru’, Krasnyi voin, 13 Aug. 2005; Aleksei Venclovskii, ‘Mirnaia missiia 2005,’ KZ, 26 Aug. 2005. For Schit soiuza-2006 see Vadim Udmantcev, ‘Otpor supostatam pod Baranovichiami’, VPK, 7 May 2006; Vadim Udmantcev, ‘Segodnia samolety DA priniamiut uchastie v ucheniiakh Schit soiuza-2006,’ <www.mil.ru>. For Stabil’nost’-2008 see Editorial, ‘Podvedeny itogi boevogo primeneniia sil I sredstv DA v ramkakh SKShu,’ Aviatsiia I kosmonavtika, no.11 (2008); Aleksandr Pinchiuk, ‘Na maksimal’nyi radius’, KZ, 24 Dec. 2008; Aleksandr Aleksandrov, ‘Razmakh kryl’ev strategicheskii,’ KZ, 25 Sept. 2008; Artem Troitskii, ‘Osen’ 2008 budet zharkoi’, VPK, 13 Aug. 2008; Iurii Vladimirov, ‘Strategi rasshiriajut geografiiu poletov’, Rossiiskoe voennoe obozrenie, no.12 (2008). For Zapad-2009 see Vitalii Denisov and Oleg Gupai, ‘V edinom boevom stroiu’, KZ, 29 Sept. 2009; ‘VVS Rossii zavershaiut aktivnuiu fazu ucheniia’, 29 Sept. 2009, <www.mil.ru>; Aleksandr Pinchiuk, ‘Pri strategicheskom razmakhe kryl’ev’, KZ, 23 Dec. 2009. For Vostok-2010 see: Vladimir Mokhov, ‘Ispitaniia novogo oblika’, KZ, 7 July 2010; Vladimir Mokhov, ‘Voiska VVS I PVO unichtozhili wse uslovnye tceli na ucheniiakh’, RIAN, 6 July 2010.

⁵¹For Tsentr-2008 see Novosti sukhopuntukh voisk, 26 Sept. 2008, <www.mil.ru>. For Ladoga-2009 and Zapad 2009 see Novosti sukhopuntukh voisk, 28 Sept. 2009, <www.mil.ru>; Iurii Klenov, ‘Na strategicheskikh napravleniiakh,’ Zaschita I bezopasnost’, no.4 (2009). For Vostok-2010 see Aleksandr Khramchihin, ‘Neadekvatnyi vostok’, NVO, 23 July 2010; Oleg Falichev, ‘Vostok 2010: nachialo, kul’minatsiia , itog,’ VPK, 14 July 2010. Andrei Bondarenko, ‘Vysota, manevr, ogon’, KZ, 8 July 2010.

⁵²‘Nachialas’ aktivania faza letno takticheskikh uchenii DA’, 8 Aug. 2007, <www.mil.ru>; ‘Vse rakety vypuschennye samoletami DA v khode uchenii’, 9 Aug. 2007, <www.mil.ru>; ‘DA priniala uchastie v ucheniiakh SF’, 12 July 2007, <www.mil.ru>; ‘Ucheniia VVS I VMF,’ 2 Feb. 2008, <www.mil.ru>; ‘VVS I VMF Rossii gotoviatsia k provedeniiu uchenii v Indiiskom okeane’, 6 Aug. 2008, <www.mil.ru>; Anatolii Artem’ev, ‘Polemika: odinakovykh voin ne byvaet’, VPK, no.31 (2006); Vladimirov, ‘Strategi rasshiriajut geografiiu poletov’; Pinchiuk, ‘Na maksimal’nyi radius’; Pinchiuk, ‘Pri strategicheskom razmakhe kryl’ev. Stephen Blank estimates that naval nuclear strikes were in support of ground forces during the Ladoga and Zapad 2009 exercises. Stephen Blank, ‘Beyond the Reset Policy,’ Comparative Strategy 29 (2010), 350, 353.

⁵³See above, and Sokov, Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine; Litovkin, ‘Genshtab informiruet zagranitsu’.

⁵⁴For example see: Kreidin, ‘Global’noe I regional’noe’; Sergei Kreidin, ‘Protivoraketnye zabluzhdeniia’, NVO, 26 July 2002; Levshin et al., ‘O primenenii iadernogo’; Arbatov, Uravnenie, 257; Kokoshin, Obespechenie strategicheskoi, 96; D’iakov et al., Nestrategicheskoe iadernoe oruzhie, 13; Litovkin, ‘Genshtab informiruet’; Sukhorutchenko and Kreidin, ‘Aktualnye probelmy’; Safranchiuk, Voprosy bezopasnsoti, 15 Dec. 1998; Safranchiuk, Voprosy bezopasnosti, 11 Jan. 1998; Radchiuk, ‘Bol’shaia iadernaia igra v XXI veke’.

⁵⁵A. Khokhlov, ‘Bomba tret’ego pokoleniia’, Komsomol’skaia Pravda, 19 July 1990; Viktor Mikhailov, ‘Pochemu dolzhny molchat’ iadernye poligony strany’, Pravda, 24 Oct. 1990; ‘Iadernoe oruzhie’, Atomnaia Energetika, no.5 (1991); ‘Iadernye sekrety SShA dlia Rossii – proidennyi etap’, Novye izvestiia, 5 Nov. 1997; ‘Bomba v khoziastve prigoditsia’, KP, 4 June 1994; ‘Rossiia – velikaia iadernaia derzhava’, Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiia, no.4 (1994); ‘Stanovaia otrasl’ Rossii’, MZh, no.6 (1994); ‘Rashirenie NATO I bezopasnsot’ Rossii’, Vek, no.37 (1996); ‘Neobkhodimost’ novykh kontseptual’nykh’, Vek, no.15 (1996); K.E. Sorokin, ‘Iadernoe oruzhie v epokhu’, POLIS 4 (1995); Vladimir Gubarev, ‘Vsia zhizn’ na peredovoi’, RT-5, 31 Jan. (1997); Vladimir Gubarev, ‘Kakoe eto schastie zhit’ I tvorit’, Pravda.RU, 1997.

⁵⁶A.I. Shevtsov, A.I. Izhak, A.V. Gavrish and A.N. Chumakov, Takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie v Evrope (Dnepropetrovsl: Natsionalnyi institute strategicheskikh issledovanii 1999), 20–3, 39–40; V.S. Belous, ‘Iadernoe oruzhie tret’ego pokolenia’, VM, no.11–12 (1991); V.S. Belous, ‘Takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie,’ Iadernyi kontrol’, no.14 (1996); V.S. Belous, ‘Iadernyi vzryv vnutri kompiutera,’ NVO, 10 Feb. 1999; Andrei Vaganov, ‘Atamnaia bomba kak akademicheskii proekt’, NG, 21 July 1999; D. Evstaf’ev and E. Kuznetsov, ‘Novoe v iadernoi strategii SShA’, Iadernyi kontrol’, no.11 (1995).

⁵⁷Pavel Felgengauer, ‘Ogranichennaia iadernaia voina?’ Segodnia, 6 May 1999; Viktor Mikhailov, Ia Iastreb (Moscow: ISS 2009), 202–3; ‘Put’ iastreba,’ Nuclear.Ru, 10 March 2004; Valentina Filipova, ‘Iubilei iastreba’, MINATOM RF, 12 Feb. 2004; Safranchiuk, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons’, 46, 54.

⁵⁸Viktor Mikhailov, ‘Perspektivy novykh tekhnologii razrabotki iadernogo oruzhiia’, NVO, 23 April 1999; Viktor Mikhailov, ‘Iadernomu oruzhiiu Rossii polveka,’ Biliuten’ po atomnoi energii,’ no.7–8 (1999); Viktor Mikhailov, ‘Pomnit o proshlom smotret’ v budushie,’ NVO, 20 Aug. 1999; Viktor Mikhailov, ‘Rossiia iadernaia derzhava,’ Strategicheskaia stabil’nsot’, no.3 (2001); Viktor Mikhailov, ‘Iadernoe oruzhie Rossii v XXI veke,’ Analiticheskie zapiski, Dec. 2005; Andrei Vaganov, ‘Atomnaia bomba dozhdalas’ svoego chasa’, NG, 11 July 2001; Vladimir Kucherenko and Aleksei Podymov, ‘Atomnye pribyli v poluraspade,’ Rossiiskaia gazeta, 18 Dec. 1998.

⁵⁹Kokoshin, Strategicheskoe Upravlenie, 319, 478; Viktor Mikhailov, ‘Iadernoe oruzhie Rossii XXI veka’, Vek, no.8 (1998); Viktor Mikhailov, ‘Desiat’ let v bor’be za vyzhivanie’, Biliuten’ po atomnoi energii, no.1 (2002); Safranchiuk, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons,’ 66; Genadii Voskresenskii, ‘Bombu sdealt’ trudno,’ Vek, 3 Sept. 1999; Svetlana Ponamareva, ‘Rascheplenie iadra’, Vek, 9 June 2002.

⁶⁰Mikhailov, Ia Iastreb, 335–40, 346–72; Khokhlov, ‘Esli Chechentsy zaimutsia iadernym shantazhom’; Tatiana Danilova, ‘Chas iastreba’, Soiuznaia gazeta, no.3, 25 March 2003. Also see Andrei Vaganov, ‘Termoiadernoe oruzhie v XXI veka,’ NG, 12 Aug. 2003; Filipova, ‘Iubilei iastreba’; Aleksandr Emeliannikov, ‘Kto pervym voz’metsia za iadrnyi skal’pel’’, Rossiskaia gazeta, 11 Feb. 2004.

⁶¹Anatoli Dokuchaev, ‘Nas obiedenila Novaia zemlia’, Patriot otechestva, no.7 (2006); V. Brezkun, ‘Polveka idia v neizvestnoe’, Natsional’naia oborona, no.2 (2008). Tatiana Danilova, ‘Chas iastreba’, Soiuznaia gazeta, no.3 (2003); Vera Parafonova, ‘Strategiia stabil’noi bezopasnsoti’, Novgorodskaia delovaia gazeta, March 2007; ‘Ministr M Profesor Akademik Mikhailov’, Novye promushlennye tehnologii, no.6 (2007); Press sluzhba ISS, ‘Institutu strategicheskoi stabil’nsoti 10 let’, Rossiia Atomnyi Proekt (2009), 39–42.

⁶²V.N. Mikhailov, S.N. Voronin and S.T. Brezkun, ‘Strakhovoi polis chelovechestva’, NG, 7 April 2000; ‘XX vek I iadernoe oruzhie Rossii,’ Strategicheskaia stabil’nost’, no.4 (2000); Iadernyi udar,’ Versty, 5 Aug. 2000; ‘Iadernoe budushie dlia nashei strany,’ Vek, no.51 (2000); V.N. Mikhailov, ‘Ot dvupoliusnogo mira k odnopoliarnomu: iadernye sily Rossii v sovremennykh usloviiakh,’ Vek, 6 July 2001; ‘Akademiku Mikhailovau 70 let, ‘Atom Pressa, no.5 (2004); Mikhailov, Ia Iastreb, 288–313.

⁶³Sergei Brezkun, ‘Stavka na takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie’, VPK, 20 April 2005; ‘Nikakie mery doveriia ne mogut zamenit’ realnoi iadernoi moschi’, VPK, no.4 (2005); Mikhail Sosnovskii, ‘O iadernom sderzhivanii,’ Obozevatel’, no.11 (2004); Mikhail Khodarenok, ‘Rossiia dolzhna sdelat’ stavku na TIaO’, VPK, 4 July 2004.

⁶⁴Parafonova, ‘Strategiia stabil’noi bezopasnsoti’; Vera Parafonova, ‘Kazhdoe atomnoe ispitanie eto chastitsa otdannoi zhizni,’ Biliuten’ po atomnoi energii, no.1 (2008); Vera Parafonova, ‘Iastreb s filosofiei mira’, Novye promyshelnnye tekhnologii, no.1 (2009); Vera Parafonova, ‘Byt’ zorche drugikh’, Atom Pressa, no.5 (2009); Vera Parafonova, ‘Fizika ego profesiia’, Zaschita I bezopasnost’ 48/1 (2009); I.F. Bocharov, ‘Pioner naprimer’, VPK, 28 July 2010.

⁶⁵Oleg Bukharin, ‘Downsizing Russia’s Nuclear Warhead Production Infrastructure’, Nonproliferation Review 8/1 (Spring 2001); A.V. Demidiuk and M.M. Khamzatov, ‘Molnienosnaia voina novogo pokolennia’, VM, no.10 (2004); V.V. Korobushin, ‘Mesto I rol’ strtegicheskikh iadernykh vooruzhenii,’ VM, no.4 (2007).

⁶⁶P.A. Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus ili teoriia iadernogo sderzhivaniiav XXI veke (Odessa: Odesskii Natsional’nyi Universitet 2008), 61–2; I.F. Bocharov, ‘Sozdaetsia iadernoe oruzhie chetvertogo pokaleniia,’ NVO, 14 Oct. 2005; ‘Razrabotka v SShA novogo iadernogo oruzhiia’, SShA-Kanada, no.11 (2004); ‘Iadernaia politika Dzh. U. Busha’, SShA-Kanada, no.10 (2003). I.A. Andriushin, A.K. Chernyshev and Iu.A. Iudin, Ikroschenie iadra (Sarov: Krasnyi oktiabr’ 2003), 400–18; Vladimir Chekhovskii, ‘K Kakoi voine gotovitsia?,’ VKO, no.5 (2007). I.F. Bocharov, ‘Realna li reforma iadernoi politiki SShA?,’ SShA-Kanada, no.10 (2008); I.F. Bocharov, ‘Sovremennye aspekty iadernoi politiki SShA,’ SShA-Kanada, no.2 (2009). The Russian MoD experts even suggested that Israel might have tested new clean nuclear munitions for the United States during the air raids in the 2006 Lebanon War and in Syria in 2007. Aleksandr Kotomkin, Valerii Kreitinin and Andrei Shushkov, ‘Chistoe termoiadernoe oruzhie?,’ VKO, no.1 (2007); Viktor Starkov and Andrei Shushkov, ‘Preliudiia k udaru po Iranu’, VKO, no.4 (2008).

⁶⁷See Bedritskii and Ermakov, ‘Iadernoe sderzhivanie v sovremennukh usloviiakh’, 12–14; Aleksei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, Revising Nuclear Deterrence (College Park: CISSM University of Maryland 2005), 7–8; Korobushin, ‘Nadezhnoe strategicheskoe iadernoe sderzhivanie,’ 17; Emeliannikov, ‘Iadernyi soblazn,’ RG, 4 Nov. 2002; Aleksandr Emeliannikov, ‘Vooruzhennye sily Rossii,’ Vestnik voennoi informatsii, 31 Oct. 2003; Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus, 50, 53, 57–8.

⁶⁸Arbatov and Dvorkin, Revising Nuclear Deterrence, 37–8; Trenin, Russia’s Nuclear Policy, 13–14, 23–7; Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus, 67–8; V.I. Mikerov, ‘Nekotorye voprosu obespecheniia sootvetstviia iadernogo boezapasa sovremennum trbovaniiam’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 54/1 (2011), 24–5.

⁶⁹V.I. Mikerov and V.S. Bocharov, ‘Metodologicheskie osnovy otcenki program razvitiia iadernogo oruzheinogo kompleksa,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 54/1 (2011), 48–9; V.I. Mikerov, ‘Restrukturizatsiia iadernogo oruzheinogo kompleksa,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 53/4 (2010), 52–4; V.I. Mikerov, ‘Problemu kadrovogo obespecheniia iadernogo oruzheinogo kompleksa’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nsot’ 53/4 (2010), 55–7.

⁷⁰V.P. Solov’ev, RFIaTs-VNIIEF segodnia, zavtra (Sarov: VNIIEF, 31 March 2010), slides 7, 10, 11, 33; Radii Il’kaev, ‘Sozdateli iadernogo schita,’ Sodruzhestvo 288/9 (2011), 7.

⁷¹Sergei Brezkun, ‘Rosssiskie uchenye vystupaiut za otkaz ot moratoria,’ VPK, no.2 (2006); ‘Otkroveniia nevol’no proiasniaiuschie sut’, VPK, no.30 (2006).

⁷²For example, Alexei Berezin, ‘Moscow emphasizes quality of its nuclear arsenal,’ RIA Novosti, 13 Jan. 2005; Denisov, ‘Khraniteli’.

⁷³Vladimir Murav’ev, ‘Bez prava na oshibku,’ Armeiskii sbornik, 1 Dec. 1999; V.I.Lumpov and N.P. Bagmet, ‘K voprosu o iadernom sderzhivanii,’ VM, no.6 (2002); A.V.Korotiaev and V.S. Mel’nikov, ‘O roli strategicheskoi aviatsii v sovremennykh ulsoviiakh,’ VM, no. 2 (2011), 60–1; Bedritskii and Ermakov, ‘Iadernoe sderzhivanie v sovremennukh usloviiakh’, 2–16.

⁷⁴Alexander Saveliev, ‘Russian Defense Doctrine’, in Stephen Blank, Russian Military Politics (Carlisle: ISS 2011). Dvorkin, ‘Prazhskii rubezh poriden’.

⁷⁵S.V. Kreidin, ‘Global’noe I regional’noe sderzhivanie’, VM, no.4 (1999); S.V. Kreidin, ‘O problemakh global’nogo I regional’nogo sderzhivaniia,’ VM, no.5 (1998). Ivasik et al., ‘Iaedernoe oruzhie’. Trenin, Russia’s Nuclear Policy in the 21st Century Environment, 17–19.

⁷⁶John G. Hines, Ellis M. Mishulovich and John F. Shull, Soviet Intentions, 1965–1985 (Germantown, MD: BMD Federal 1995), 16. Sergei Karaganov, ‘Preodolet’ sderzhivanie’, Rossiiskaia gazeta, 6 April 2011; Amir Lupovici, ‘The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory – Toward a New Research Agenda’, International Studies Quarterly 54/1 (2010), 717; Henry Trofimenko, Changing Attitudes towards Deterrence (Los Angeles: University of California Press 1980), 10–12.

⁷⁷Hines et al., Soviet Intentions, 1–2, 22–4, 26, 50; Arbatov and Dvorkin, Revising Nuclear Deterrence, 17–19; Keith B. Payne, The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction (Lexington: Univ. of Kentucky 2001), 26–7; Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus ili teoriia iadernogo sderzhivaniiav XXI veke, 39, 49–50; L.N. Nezhinskii and I.A. Chelyshev, ‘O doktrinal’nykh osnovakh sovetskoi vneshnei politiki’, Otechetsvennaia Istoriia, no.1 (1995), 5–12;

⁷⁸Hines et al., Soviet Intentions, 15–17, 21.

⁷⁹Ibid., 2–3.

⁸⁰Beatrice Heuser, ‘Victory in a Nuclear War? Comparison of NATO and WTO War Aims’, Contemporary European History 7/3 (1998), 311–27.

⁸¹Kokoshin, Strategicheskoe Upravlenie, 68; Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus, 33–4. For one exception, which however had no influence on the Soviet strategic thought, see Hines et al., Soviet Intentions, 37–8.

⁸²Alexei Fenenko, ‘Between MAD and Flexible Response’, Russia in Global Affairs, 22 June 2011.

⁸³Blank, ‘Beyond the Reset’, 351; Hines et al., Soviet Intentions, 39.

⁸⁴Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus, 12, 40–3. Suggestions along the lines of US deterrence theory were considered a ‘monstrous heresy’. Arbatov and Dvorkin, Revising Nuclear Deterrence, 17–19.

⁸⁵Kokoshin, Strategicheskoe Upravlenie, 317–18; Shevtsov et al., Takticheskoe iadernoe oruzhie v Evrope, 11–12.

⁸⁶Aleksei Arbatov, ‘Zdravyi smysl I razoryzhenie’, Rossiia v global’noi politike, no.4 (2010), 180; Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus, 73; Trenin, Russia’s Nuclear Policy, 13.

⁸⁷For the first attempt see: V.L. Grin’ko and S.I. Kohan, ‘Kontseptsiia sderzhivaniia: strategicheskai stabil’nsot’ v sovremmenukh usloviiakh’, VM, no.4 (1993).

⁸⁸M.A. Gareev, ‘Itogi deiatel’nsoti AVN za 2008 I zadachi akademii na 2009 god’, VestnikAVN 26/1 (2009).

⁸⁹Arbatov and Dvorkin, Revising Nuclear Deterrence, 4. Muntianu and Tagirov, ‘O iadernykh silakh zamolvite slovo’.

⁹⁰M.A. Gareev, ‘Strategicheskoe sderzhivanie’, Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 46/1 (2009), 2–13; V.Ia. Shatokhin, ‘Iadernaia Sostavliiaiuschaia,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nsot’ 46/1 (2009), 35–40; S.A. Modestov, ‘Strategickeskoe sderzhivanie na teatre,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 46/1 (2009); Protasov and Kreidin, ‘Sistemy upravleniia’; B.A. Koniakhin and V.I. Kovalev, ‘Mekhanism realizatsii strategicheskogo,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ 46/1 (2009), 27–31; Korobushin, ‘Nadezhnoe strategicheskoe iadernoe,’ (2009); Muntianu and Tagirov, ‘Nekotorye problemnye voprosy’; R.G. Tagirov, Iu.A. Pecahtnov and V.M. Burenok, ‘K voprosu ob opredelenii urovnei,’ Vestnik AVN, no.1 (2009).

⁹¹Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 25.

⁹²Sirotinin, ‘Sderzhivanie agressii’, 6; Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 26; Rukshin, ‘Iadernoe sderzhivanie’; Protasov et al., ‘Systemy upravelniia’; Iu. G. Shushkanov and V.N. Gorbunov, ‘O nekotorykh aspektakh teorii I praktiki priminenia vooruzhennykh sil,’ VM, no.1 (2010), 24.

⁹³Safranchiuk, ‘TIaO Rossii’; Safranchiuk, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons’, 45–68. D’iakov et al., Nestrategicheskoe iadernoe oruzhie, 8–13. McDermott, Russia’s Conventional Military, 4.

⁹⁴Koniakhin and Kovalev, ‘Mekhanism realizatsii strategicheskogo’; Matvichiuk and Khriapin, ‘Sistema strategicheskogo sderzhivaniia’, 11–19.

⁹⁵Muntianu and Tagirov, ‘Nekotorye problemnye voprosy’; A.V. Muntianu and R.G. Tagirov, ‘O iadernykh silakh zamolvite slovo’, VPK, 18 May 2011.

⁹⁶Fedorov, ‘Russia: New Inconstant Nuclear Thinking and Policy’, 145–6.

⁹⁷Trenin, Russia’s Nuclear Policy, 9; McDermott, Russia’s Conventional Military, 12; Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 24; Dvorkin, ‘Prazhskii rubezh poriden’.

⁹⁸Fedorov, ‘Russia: New Inconstant Nuclear,’ 146–7; Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 24–5.

⁹⁹I.N. Vorob’ev and V.A. Kiselev, ‘Otechestvennaia voennaia teoriia na sovremennom e'tape’, Voennaia Mysl’, no.9 (2011), 74–8.

¹⁰⁰Aleksei Arbatov, ‘Vneshniia politika I natsional’naia oborona Rossii’, VPK, 6 April 2011.

¹⁰¹Mikhail Tsypkin, ‘Formulation of Nuclear Policy in Moscow: Actors and Interests’ (with Anya Loukianova), in Cristina Hansell and William C. Potter, (eds), Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear Disarmament, Occasional Paper No. 15 (Monterey, CA: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, April 2009).

¹⁰²Sokov in Pomper et al., ‘Reducing Tactical Nuclear Weapons,’ 16–17; Fedorov, ‘Russia: New Inconstant Nuclear Thinking’, 134–5; Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 17; Arbatov and Dvorkin, Gambit or Endgame?, 20, 39–40, 45.

¹⁰³Even experts from military districts may be promoting parochial interests of the federal regions, since Russian regional institutions exert a multifaceted influence on the formulation and implementation of the military and civilian nuclear policies. Michael Jasinski, ‘The Military, the Regions and Nuclear Weapons’, in James Motlz, Vladimir Orlov and Adam Stulberg, Preventing Nuclear Meltdown (Burlington, VT: Ashgate 2004), 79–105.

¹⁰⁴Marcel de Hass, Russia’s Military Reforms (Netherlands Institute for IR 2011), 20–2.

¹⁰⁵Interviews with Russian experts in Moscow, 2010. James A. Bellacqua (ed.), The Future of China–Russia Relations (Lexington: UP of Kentucky 2010).

¹⁰⁶Arbatov and Dvorkin, Gambit or Endgame?, 10–15; Trenin, Russia’s Nuclear Policy, 9–10; Alexey Arbatov, ‘Vneshniia politika i natsional’naia bezopasnot’ Rossii’, VPK, 6 April 2011; Jeffrey Mankoff, ‘Changing Course in Moscow’, Foreign Affairs, 7 Sept. 2010.

¹⁰⁷Roger McDermott, ‘Russia’s Conventional Armed Forces: Reform and Nuclear Posture to 2020,’ in Stephen J. Blank, Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present and Future (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College 2011), 54–5. Also see Shoumikhin in ibid, 132.

¹⁰⁸Interviews with Russian experts in Moscow, 2010. E.V. Sirotin, and Ui.V. Krinitzki, ‘Partizano-teroristicheskie voiny v epokhu iadernogo sderzhivaniia’, NVO, 4 June 2010. Charles K. Bartles, ‘Defense Reforms of Russian Defense Minister Anatolii Serdyukov’, Journal of Slavic Military Studies 24/1 (2011), 55–80.

¹⁰⁹Arbatov and Dvorkin, Gambit or Endgame?, 10–15. For a similar state of affairs in foreign policy see Jeffrey Mankoff, Russian Foreign Policy (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield 2009).

¹¹⁰Arbatov and Dvorkin, Gambit or Endgame?, 20–1.

¹¹¹Nikolai Sokov, ‘Russian Perspectives on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons’, in Tom Nichols, Douglas Stuart and Jeffrey D. McCausland, Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College 2012), 215.

¹¹²Arbatov et al., Contemporary Nuclear Doctrines, 24.

¹¹³Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, viii.

¹¹⁴Richard Weitz, ‘The Historical Context of Tactical Nuclear Weapons’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 6.

¹¹⁵Paul Schulte, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons in NATO and Beyond’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 18.

¹¹⁶Simon Lunn, ‘The Role and Place of Tactical Nuclear Weapons – A NATO Perspective,’ in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 235.

¹¹⁷Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (New York: Palgrave Macmillan 2003), 109.

¹¹⁸Elbridge Colby, ‘US Nuclear Weapons Policy’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 79.

¹¹⁹David S. Yost, The US and Nuclear Deterrence in Europe, Adelphi Papers 326 (London: IISS 1999), 11.

¹²⁰Freedman, Evolution, 110–11.

¹²¹Ibid., 112.

¹²²William E. Odom, ‘The Origins and Design of Presidential Decision-59: A Memoir’, in Henry D. Sokolski (ed.), Getting MAD (Carlisle, PA: US Army Strategic Studies Institute 2004).

¹²³Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale UP 1966); Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP 1980).

¹²⁴Barry Posen, Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 1992).

¹²⁵Freedman, Evolution, 111.

¹²⁶Weitz, ‘The Historical Context of Tactical Nuclear Weapons,’ in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 5.

¹²⁷William Potter, Nikolai Sokov, Harald Muller and Annette Schaper, Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Options for Control (Geneva: UNIDIR 2000), 28–9; Paul Schulte, ‘‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons in NATO and Beyond’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons. Also see David Schwartz, NATO’s Dilemmas (Washington DC: Brookings 1983).

¹²⁸Also see William Burns, ‘An Introductory Reminisce’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, xvi.

¹²⁹Gordon Barrass, The Great Cold War (Stanford, CA: Stanford UP 2009), 194–5.

¹³⁰Weitz, ‘The Historical Context of Tactical Nuclear Weapons’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 6–7; Schulte, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 40–1.

¹³¹Schulte, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 41.

¹³²Potter et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 30.

¹³³I thank anonymous reviewers for this point. See Lynn Eden, Whole World on Fire (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 2006); Austin Long, Deterrence from Cold War to Long War (RAND 2008).

¹³⁴William Odom, ‘NATO Nuclear Plans on the Central Front’, in Jan Hoffenaar and Christopher Findlay (eds), Military Planning for European Theater Conflict during the Cold War (Zurich: Center for Security Studies, ETH 2007), 127–9.

¹³⁵Potter, Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 30.

¹³⁶Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 89.

¹³⁷Robert Vokac, Smart Weapons: Can We Fold a Nuclear Umbrella? (Fort Leavenworth, KS: SAMS 1991).

¹³⁸Schulte, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons in NATO and Beyond’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons in NATO, 34

¹³⁹Hoffenaar and Findlay, ‘NATO Nuclear Plans on the Central Front’, Military Planning for European Theater Conflict during the Cold War, 145.

¹⁴⁰Matthew Evangelista, Innovation and Arms Race (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 1988).

¹⁴¹Freedman, Evolution, 322.

¹⁴²For example see Sam Sarkesian (ed.), The Military-Industrial Complex (Beverly Hills: Sage 1972); Eugene Gholz, ‘The Curtiss Wright Corporation and Cold War Era Defense Procurement’, Journal of Cold War Studies 2/1 (Winter 2000), 35–75.

¹⁴³Freedman, Evolution, 322–3. Similarly, the Soviet nuclear arsenal often reflected the competition between weapons design bureaus. Pavel Podvig, ‘The Window of Vulnerability that was Not’, International Security 33/1 (2008), 118–138.

¹⁴⁴Freedman, Evolution, 323.

¹⁴⁵Ibid., 111.

¹⁴⁶J. Michael Legge, Theater Nuclear Weapons and the NATO Strategy of Flexible Response (Santa Monica, CA: RAND 1983), 75. Also see Odom, ‘NATO Nuclear Plans on the Central Front’, in Hoffenaar and Findlay, Military Planning for European Theater Conflict, 128.

¹⁴⁷Schulte, ‘Tactical Nuclear Weapons’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons.

¹⁴⁸For example see Chris Demchak, Military Organizations, Complex Machines (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 1991); Stephen Rosen, Winning the Next War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 1994); Scott Sagan, ‘Why do States Build Nuclear Weapons?’ International Security 21/3 (1996), 54–86; Harvey Sapolsky, Eugene Gholz and Caitlin Talmadge, US Defense Politics (New York: Routledge 2008).

¹⁴⁹I thank anonymous reviewers for this point.

¹⁵⁰I thank anonymous reviewers for this point.

¹⁵¹Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus, 75; Trenin, Russia’s Nuclear Policy, 27.

¹⁵²See Michael C. Horowitz, The Diffusion of Military Power (Princeton UP 2010). Matthew Kroenig, Exporting the Bomb (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 2010).

¹⁵³Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 507.

¹⁵⁴Kristensen, Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons, 10.

¹⁵⁵Jeffrey A. Larsen, ‘The Role of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: An American Perspective’, in Nichols et al., Tactical Nuclear Weapons, 327.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky

Dr Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky is Associate Professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy and a fellow at the Institute of Policy and Strategy at the IDC Herzliya. His research interests include international security, cultural approach to IR, modern military thought, nuclear strategy and history. He has published on these topics in academic journals and edited volumes. His first book Operation Kavkaz (Hebrew) earned the prize for the best academic work on Israeli security in 2006. His second book The Culture of Military Innovation (Stanford UP 2010) earned the same prize in 2012. He is a winner of the 2012 annual Amos Perlmutter Prize.