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Abstract
China has a strong interest in pursuing a smart power strategy towards Southeast Asia and has worked laboriously to engage with regional countries economically, socially, and politically. But China has been only partially successful in achieving its goals in the region. This paper argues that China’s security policy towards Southeast Asia significantly contradicts many other objectives that Beijing wishes to accomplish. Given the deep-seated, narrowly-defined national interests of the Chinese military in the South China Sea disputes, it is likely that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will continue to pose the main obstacle to the effective implementation of a Chinese smart strategy in Southeast Asia.
Notes
1 See for instance, Andrew Scobell, ‘China’s Geostrategic Calculus and Southeast Asia – The Dragon’s Backyard Laboratory’, Testimony before US China Economic and Security Review Commission, 4 Feb. 2010; For full text, see: <www.uscc.gov/hearings/2010hearings/written_testimonies/10_02_04_wrt/10_02_04_scobell_statement.pdf>; and Michael R. Chambers, ‘The Evolving Relationship between China and Southeast Asia’, in Ann Marie Murphy and Bridget Welsh (eds), Legacy of Engagement in Southeast Asia (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asia 2008), 298.
2 Joshua Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power is Transforming the World (New Haven, CT: Yale UP 2008).
3 Xiaoyong Cheng, ‘Zhongguo zai dongnanya diqu anquan xingxiang de bianqian yu suzao’ [‘The evolution and cultivation of China’s security image in Southeast Asia’], Shehui kexue [Social Sciences] 10/1 (2012), 4–14; Xiao Tan and Liu Bingxiang, ‘Zhong mei zai dongnanya diqu de “ruan shili” bijiao’ [‘A comparison of Chinese and American soft power in Southeast Asia’], Dongnanya zongheng [Around Southeast Asia] 10/1 (2010), 3–8.
4 Andrew Scobell, ‘Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China’s Peaceful Rise?’ Parameters 39 (Summer 2009), 4–22.
5 Yawei Liu and Justine Zheng Ren, ‘An Emerging Consensus on the US Threat: the United States according to PLA Officers’, Journal of Contemporary China 23/86 (2014), 255–74.
6 See for instance, Ningning Xu, ‘Zhongguo yu dongmeng guanxi xianzhuang, chushi, duice’ [‘The state, trend, and future policy in China’s relations with ASEAN’], Dongnanya zhongheng [Around Southeast Asia] 3/1 (2012), 51–5; Qingsi Li, ‘Zhongguo yu dongmeng guanxi: mulin waijiao de fanli’ [‘China-ASEAN relations: A good example of good-neighborly diplomacy’], Guoji luntan [International Forum] 2/6 (2004), 30–4; Xiaowei Li, ‘Zhongguo yu dongnanya hezuo de diyuan zhanlue sikao’ [‘The geo-strategic considerations for China-Southeast Asia cooperation’], Yunnan minzu daxue xuebao [Journal of Yunnan Nationalities University] 3/25 (2008), 68–73; CICIR research team on ASEAN, ‘Zhongguo dui dongmeng zhengce yanjiu baogao’ [‘Research report on China’s policy towards ASEAN’], Xiandai guoji guanxi [Contemporary International Relations] 10/1 (2002), 1–10; and Fengjun Chen, ‘Jiaqiang zhongguo yu dongmeng hezuo de zhanlue yiyi’ [‘The strategic implications of strengthening China-ASEAN relations’], Guoji zhengzhi yanjiu [Studies of International Politics] 1/1 (2004), 68.
7 For details of these documents, see ASEAN Secretariat website: <www.asean.org/asean/external-relations/china>.
8 See the annual statistical bulletins of the National Tourism Administration of China from 2003 to 2010.
10 Yuzhu Wang, ‘Zimaoqu jianshe yu zhongguo dongmeng guanxi’ [‘The construction of the FTA and China-ASEAN relations’], Nanyang wenti yanjiu [Southeast Asian Affairs] 1/1 (2012), 9–20.
11 ‘Xi in call for building of new “maritime silk road”’, China Daily, 4 Oct. 2013.
12 Wang, ‘The Construction of the FTA and China-ASEAN Relations’, 9–20.
13 Stephen Frost and Mary Ho, ‘Zhongguo dalu de touzi langchao: guo you qiye he zai dongnanya de guowai zhijie touzi’ [‘Mainland China’s investment flow: SOEs and China’s FDI in Southeast Asia’], Nanyang ziliao yicong [Southeast Asian Studies] 4/1 (2006), 1–20.
14 Khai Leong Ho, ‘Rituals, Risks and Rivalries: China and ASEAN in the coming Decades’, Journal of Contemporary China 10/29 (2001), 683–94.
15 Michael G. Gallagher, ‘China’s Illusory Threat to the South China Sea’, International Security 19/1 (Summer 1994), 169–94.
16 Eric Hyer, ‘The South China Sea Disputes: Implications of China’s Earlier Territorial Settlements’, Pacific Affairs 68/1 (Spring 1995), 34–54.
17 Allen S. Whiting, ‘ASEAN Eyes China: The Security Dimension’, Asian Survey 37/4 (1997), 299–322.
18 Alice D. Ba, ‘Staking Claims and Making Waves in the South China Sea: How Troubled Are the Waters?’ Contemporary Southeast Asia 33/3 (2011), 269–91.
19 Evan A. Laksmana, ‘Is China Failing SE Asia’s Litmus Test?’ Jakarta Post, 10 June 2010.
20 China’s Responses to Vietnam Submission & Joint M-V Submission to UNCLCS- 7 May 2009.
21 See for instance the views of Li Jinming, ‘Nanhai jiu duan xian: zhongguo de daoyu guishu xian’ [‘The nine-dotted line in the South China Sea: indication of China’s ownership of the islands’], Jingji Cankao Bao [Economic Reference News], 6 June 2012; and Jin Yongming, ‘Zhongguo ji yu nanhai U xing xian de zhuzhang guozheng hao wu yiju ma?’ [‘Is China’s claim based on the U-shaped line in the South China Sea really groundless?’], Dongfang zaobao [Oriental Morning Post], 24 April 2012.
22 Hong Thao Nguyen and Ramses Amer, ‘A New Legal Arrangement for the South China Sea?’ Ocean Development & International Law 40/4 (2009), 333–49.
23 Shan Zhise, ‘Sansha shi bantu de lishi jiyi’ [‘The historical memory of Sansha prefecture’s territory’], Minzhu Yu Fazhi Bao [Democracy and Legal Report], 1 July 2013.
24 Wang Qian, ‘China to dive into mapping seabed’, China Daily, 14 Sept. 2011.
25 Wang Xinjun, ‘China one step closer to developing aircraft carrier’, China Daily, 1 Aug. 2011.
26 ‘Refitting aircraft carrier not to change naval strategy’, China Daily, 27 July 2011.
27 Zhang Zixuan, ‘Cultural relics discovered under sea’, China Daily, 17 May 2011.
28 Leszek Buszynski, ‘The South China Sea: Oil, Maritime Claims, and US-China Strategic Rivalry’, Washington Quarterly 35/2 (Spring 2012), 139–56.
29 Qian Xiaohu and Song Xin, ‘Yuanyang libing, yiqie weile da shengzhang’ [‘Training exercises in far seas all aimed at winning wars’], PLA Daily, 9 April 2013.
30 Fang Xiao, ‘Zhongguo haijun fouren sheji yuenan yuchuan’ [‘China’s navy denies shooting at Vietnamese fishing boats’], Dongfang Zaobao [Oriental Morning Post], 27 March 2013; Zhu Hongliang, ‘Zhongguo haijun jianting huhang biandui shili nanhai’ [‘China’s naval anti-piracy fleet departs the South China Sea’], Xinhua Meiri Dianxun [Xinhua Daily Telegram], 29 Dec. 2008.
31 Songling Hou, ‘Zhongguo yu dongmeng guanxi zhong de bu wending yinsu-nansha wenti’ [‘A Destabilising Factor in China-ASEAN Relations: Spratlys’], Southeast Asia Studies 5/6 (2000), 65–9.
32 Joshua P. Rowan, ‘The US-Japan Security Alliance, ASEAN, and the South China Sea Dispute’, Asian Survey 45/3 (June 2005), 414–36.
33 Long Shengdong, ‘Yige jizhe de shouji: nanhai xunhang zhifa shiri xing’ [‘A reporter’s note: A ten-day law-enforcement voyage in the South China Sea’, Jingji Cankao Bao [Economic Reference News], 3 June 2010.
34 Reuters, ‘New Chinese map gives greater play to South China Sea claims’, 25 June 2014.
35 Lu Rude, ‘Wei “huoju ban” zhongguo ditu jiaohao’ [‘Praise the “torch-shaped” Chinese map’], Zhongguo Haiyang Bao [China Ocean Post], 16 Jan. 2013.
36 Gao Honglei, ‘Guotu you duoda?’ [‘How large is our territory?’], Zhongguo Guotu Ziyuan Bao [China Territory and Resources Post], 6 May 2014.
37 Edward Wong, ‘China Hedges Over Whether South China Sea is a ‘Core Interest’ Worth War’, New York Times, 30 March 2011.
38 Long Siqi, ‘Nanhai zai bu da, jiu meiyou jihui le’ [‘No striking in the South China Sea now, no opportunity in the future’], National Defence Times, 3 Oct. 2011.
40 ‘Don’t take peaceful approach for granted’, Global Times, 25 Oct. 2011.
41 For details of China’s defence diplomacy in Southeast Asia, see Ian Storey, ‘China’s Bilateral Defense Diplomacy in Southeast Asia’, Asian Security 8/3 (2012), 287–310; and Kenneth W. Allen, ‘China’s Foreign Military Relations with Asia–Pacific’, Journal of Contemporary China 10/29 (2001), 645–62.
42 Keyuan Zou, ‘The Sino-Vietnamese Agreement on Maritime Boundary Delimitation in the Gulf of Tonkin’, Ocean Development and International Law 36/1 (2005), 13–24.
43 Storey, ‘China’s Bilateral Defense Diplomacy in Southeast Asia’, 287–310.
44 Rowan, ‘The US-Japan Security Alliance, ASEAN, and the South China Sea Dispute’, 414–36.
45 Cheng Guan Ang, ‘The South China Sea Dispute Revisited’, Australian Journal of International Affairs 54/2 (2000), 201–15; M. Taylor Fravel, ‘China’s Strategy in the South China Sea’, Contemporary Southeast Asia. 33/3 (2011), 292–319; Renato Cruz De Castro, ‘The Risk of Applying Realpolitik in Resolving the South China Sea Dispute: Implications on Regional Security’, Pacific Focus 27/2 (Aug. 2012), 262–89.
46 Michael Yahuda, ‘China’s New Assertiveness in the South China Sea,’ Journal of Contemporary China 22/81 (2003), 446–459.
47 Kenneth W. Allen, ‘China’s Foreign Military Relations with Asia–Pacific’, Journal of Contemporary China 10/29 (2001), 645–62.
48 Zhang Peng, ‘Zhongguo haijun zouxiang shijie’ [‘China’s navy sails in the world’], Zhongguo Haiyang Bao [China Ocean Post], 28 May 2002.
49 Ji You, ‘The PLA and Diplomacy: Unravelling myths about the military role in foreign policy making’, Journal of Contemporary China 23/86 (2014), 236–54.
50 Toshi Yoshihara and James Holmes, ‘Can China Defend a ‘Core Interest’ in the South China Sea?’ Washington Quarterly 34/2 (Spring 2011), 45–59.
51 Yawei Liu and Justine Zheng Ren, ‘An Emerging Consensus on the US Threat: the United States according to PLA Officers’, Journal of Contemporary China 23/86 (2014), 255–74.
52 Chris Rahman and Martin Tsamenyi, ‘A Strategic Perspective on Security and Naval Issues in the South China Sea’, Ocean Development & International Law 41/4 (2010), 315–33.
53 Nong, Hong and Wenran Jiang, ‘China’s Strategic Presence in the Southeast Asian Region’, in Andrew Forbes (ed.), Maritime Capacity Building in the Asia Pacific Region (Department of Defence, Australia 2010), 141–56.
54 South China Morning Post, 30 July 2010.
55 Ibid.
56 Luo Yuan, ‘Zhongguo zai nanhai wenti shang yijing yi ren zai ren’ [‘China has tolerated time and again in the South China Sea issue’], National Defense Times, 20 June 2011.
57 David Scott, ‘Conflict Irresolution in the South China Sea’, Asian Survey 52/6 (Nov./Dec. 2012), 1019–42.
58 Deng Jingyin, ‘Chinese Marine Corps Stages Live-action Drill in South China Sea’, Global Times, 3 Nov. 2010.
59 ‘Chang huai youhuan yishi, buwang guojia anquan’ [‘Harbouring a sense of crisis all the time; never forgetting national security’], Wenhui Bao, 30 Sept. 2011.
60 Liao Lulei, ‘Nansha qundao shuyu zhongguo meiyou yiyi’ [‘The Spratly islands belong to China without any dispute’], Shenzhen tequ bao [Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Post], 12 Aug. 2012.
61 Liu and Zheng, ‘An Emerging Consensus on the US Threat: the United States according to PLA Officers’, 255–74.
62 Gao Yi, ‘Haijun dui wo nansha haiyu jingxing changtai hua zhanbei xunluo’ [‘The navy conducts regular combat-readiness patrols in the Spratlys area’], PLA Daily, 16 May 2013.
63 Li Tang and Gao Yi, ‘Haijun changtai hua xunluo fugai wanly haijiang’ [‘The navy’s regular patrols cover vast maritime area’], PLA Daily, 21 June 2014.
64 Yu Jianbin, ‘Woguo jiji kaizhan guanxia haiyu dingqi weiquan xunhang’ [‘China actively conducts regular rights-protection patrols in jurisdictional seas’], People’s Daily, 24 July 2011.
65 Xu Xueyi, ‘Chief of State Oceanic Administration: Resolutely protect China’s maritime rights’, Xinhua Meiri Dianxun [Xinhua Daily Telegram], 4 March 2012.
66 Peng Qinglin and Du Ying, ‘Sansha mabutingti’ [‘Sansha prefecture strives for more achievements’], Hainan Ribao [Hainan Daily], 3 March 2014.
67 Yahuda, ‘China’s new assertiveness in the South China Sea’, 446–59.
68 Interviews with officials at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, June 2013, Beijing.
69 Interviews with officials at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence, June 2014, Beijing.
70 Lyle Goldstein, ‘Chinese Naval Strategy in the South China Sea: An Abundance of Noise and Smoke, but Little Fire’, Contemporary Southeast Asia 33/3 (2011), 320–47.
71 Yoshihara and Holmes, ‘Can China Defend a ‘Core Interest’ in the South China Sea?’, 45–59.
72 Liu and Zheng, ‘An Emerging Consensus on the US Threat: the United States according to PLA Officers’, 255–74.
73 PLA Daily, 13 Aug. 2010.
74 Sheldon W. Simon, ‘Conflict and Diplomacy in the South China Sea: The View from Washington’, Asian Survey 52/6 (Nov./Dec. 2012), 995–1018.
75 Yiwei Wang, ‘Rethinking the South China Sea Issue: A Perspective of Sino-US Relations’, Pacific Focus 21/1 (Spring 2006), 105–35.
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Notes on contributors
Mingjiang Li
Dr. LI Mingjiang is an Associate Professor at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He is also the Coordinator of the China Program at RSIS. He received his PhD in Political Science from Boston University. His main research interests include China-ASEAN relations, Sino-US relations, Asia-Pacific security, and domestic sources of Chinese foreign policy. He is the author (including editor and co-editor) of 11 books. His recent books are New Dynamics in US-China Relations: Contending for the Asia Pacific (lead editor, Routledge 2014) and Mao’s China and the Sino-Soviet Split (Routledge 2012). He has published papers in various peer-reviewed journals including Global Governance, Cold War History, Journal of Contemporary China, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, China: An International Journal, China Security, Harvard Asia Quarterly, Security Challenges, and the International Spectator. Dr. Li frequently participates in various track-two events on East Asian regional security.
