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ABSTRACT
India’s Afghanistan policy in the 1990s is termed a zero-sum game of influence with Pakistan. New Delhi’s aversion to the pro-Pakistan Taliban regime is considered a marker of this rivalry. This paper revisits India’s approach towards Afghanistan and examines if New Delhi was necessarily averse to engaging with pro-Pakistan political factions during 1990s. Based on fresh primary interviews with former Indian policymakers, media archives, and official reports, the paper shows that India engaged with and accommodated pro-Pakistan factions after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 until 1996. The Taliban’s rise to power in Kabul in September 1996 challenged India’s engage-with-all approach. Nonetheless, the decision to sever ties with the Taliban and to bolster anti-Taliban factions was highly debated in New Delhi. Many in India saw the Taliban as a militant Islamist force sponsored by Pakistan. For others, however, it was an ethno-nationalist movement representing Pashtun interests, and not necessarily under Islamabad’s control.
Notes
1 See Shanthie M D’Souza, ‘India’s Evolving Policy Contours towards post-2014 Afghanistan’, The Journal of South Asian Development 8 (2) 185–207 (New Delhi: Sage Publishers 2013); Sumit Ganguly and Nicholas Howenstein, ‘India-Pakistan Rivalry in Afghanistan,’ Journal of International Affairs 63 (1), 127–40 (New York: Columbia UP, 2009); and C. Christine Fair, ‘Under the Shrinking USSecurity Umbrella: India’s Endgame in Afghanistan?’ Washington Quarterly 34 (2), 179–192 (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies 2011)
2 Ganguly and Howenstein, ‘India-Pakistan Rivalry in Afghanistan’, 129–31
3 The National Security Archive, George Washington University, United States, ‘Pakistan: The Taliban’s Godfather?’ Secret Cable from Karl Inderfurth to the US State Department:http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB227/33.pdf
4 Praveen Swami, India, Pakistan and the Secret Jihad: The Covert War in Kashmir, 1947–2004 (London: Routledge 2013), 5-10
5 Ibid.
6 Chris Ogden, ‘Tracing the Pakistan-Terrorism Nexus in Indian Security Perspectives: From 1947 to 26/11’, India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 69/1), 35–50 (New Delhi: ICWA, Sage Publishers 2013).
7 Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) of India, India-Afghanistan Relations, Aug. 2012, <www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/afghanistan-aug-2012.pdf>.
8 Indian Treaty Series, Treaty of Friendship between the Government of India and the Royal Government of Afghanistan [1950], New Delhi, 4 Jan., http://www.commonlii.org/in/other/treaties/INTSer/1950/3.html
9 Interview with Chinmaya Gharekhan, India’s former Permanent Representative to the UN, New Delhi, 6 March 2013.
10 J. N. Dixit, My South Block Years: Memoirs of a Foreign Secretary (New Delhi: UBS Publishers 1996) 108–11
11 See Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden (London: Penguin 2004)
12 The terms ‘containment’ and ‘engagement’ are much debated in the field of international relations and security studies. For a detailed analysis on these see Alice E. Hunt. Kristin M. Lord, John A. Nagl, and Seth D. Rosen (eds.), ‘Beyond Bullets: Strategies for Countering Violent Extremism’, Centre for a New American Security, June, Solarium Strategy Series (2009), <www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/LordNaglRosen_Beyond%20Bullets%20Edited%20Volume_June09_0.pdf>; Barry Posen and L. Andrew Ross, ‘Competing Visions of US Grand Strategy’,International Security 21/3, 5-=53 (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 1996); and Robert J. Art, ‘Geopolitics Updated: The Strategy of Selective Engagement,’ International Security 23/3), 79–113 (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 1998).
13 See Elizabeth A. Shahnahan, Michael D. Jones and Mark K. McBeth, ‘Policy Narratives and Policy Processes,’ The Policy Studies Journal, 39/3, 535–61 (Policy Studies Organisation 2011) for details on the Narrative Policy Framework Policy. The NPF treats narratives (which can be applied both in domestic and international policy domains) as a method of ‘structuring and communicating (one’s) understanding of the world. It proposes that a policy narrative has a setting, a plot, characters (hero, villain, and victim), and is disseminated toward a preferred policy outcome (the moral of the story). Different advocacy coalitions, formed by different stakeholders within the subsystem, generate different policy narratives.
14 Ibid
15 William Dalrymple, ‘A Deadly Triangle: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India’, The Brookings Institution (Washington DC: Brookings Institution 2013).
16 Fair, ‘Under the Shrinking US Security Umbrella: India’s Endgame in Afghanistan?’ 3
17 Ibid.
18 C. Christine Fair, ‘India in Afghanistan and Beyond: Opportunities and Constraints’, A Century Foundation Report (The Century Foundation 2010), 5–6.
19 Harsh V. Pant, ‘India in Afghanistan: A test case for a rising power’, Contemporary South Asia 18/2, 133–53 (London: Routledge 2010), 2–5.
20 Ibid.
21 Teresita C. Schaffer and Howard Schaffer, ‘Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Kashmir: A grand bargain?’, The Af-Pak Channel, 20 Oct., 2011.
22 Ganguly and Howenstein, ‘India-Pakistan Rivalry in Afghanistan’, 127.
23 Ibid.
24 Sandra Destradi, ‘India: A Reluctant Partner for Afghanistan’, Washington Quarterly 37 (2), 103–17 (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies 2014)
25 Rudra Chaudhuri, ‘The Proxy Calculus,’ RUSI Journal 155/6, 52–9 (London: Royal United Services Institute 2010).
26 Ibid.
27 Shashank Joshi, ‘India’s Role in a Changing Afghanistan’, Washington Quarterly 37/2, 87–102 (US: Center for Strategic and International Studies 2014).
28 Shashank Joshi, ‘India’s Af-Pak Strategy,’ RUSI Journal, 155 (1), 20–9 (London: Royal United Services Institute 2010).
29 Subhash Agarwal, ‘Emerging Donors in the International Development Assistance: The India Case’,International Development Research Centre (IDRC) (Canada 2007), <www.idrc.ca/EN/Documents/Case-of-India.pdf>, 5-10; and Gareth Price, ‘India’s Policy Towards Afghanistan’, Chatham House Paper (London: Chatham House 2013), www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/Asia/0813pp_indiaafghanistan.pdf.
30 MEA, ‘India-Afghanistan Relations’, and Price, ‘India’s Policy Towards Afghanistan’.
31 Ganguly and Howenstein, ‘India-Pakistan Rivalry in Afghanistan’, 130.
32 Dalrymple, ‘A Deadly Triangle: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India’.
33 Bibhu P. Routray, ‘National Security Decision-Making in India,’ RSIS Monograph 27 (Singapore: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies 2013), 13.
34 Ibid.
35 Ibid.
36 Interview with Vikram Sood, former Chief of R&AW (2001–03), New Delhi, 20 March2013, and Lalit Mansingh, former Foreign Secretary (FS) of India (1999-2001), New Delhi, 25 Jan.2013.
37 Interview with K Raghunath, former Foreign Secretary of India (1997–99), New Delhi, 19 March2013.
38 Interview with Aunohita Mojumdar, Indian journalist, New Delhi, 30 Jan.2013. Mojumdar covered India-Afghanistan relations extensively since 1997, and was based out of Afghanistan for eight years between 2003–2011.
39 Interview with Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary (FS) of India (2004–06), New Delhi, 12 March 2013.
40 Harsh V Pant, ‘The Afghanistan Conflict: India’s Changing Role,’ Middle East Quarterly, 18 (2), 31-39 (US: Middle East Forum 2011) and Ganguly and Howenstein, India-Pakistan Rivalry in Afghanistan’
41 M. D. Nalapat ‘India has no option but to help Rabbani’, Times of India News Service, 1 Oct.1996.
42 Chaudhuri, ‘The Proxy Calculus’, 57; Joshi, ‘India’s Af-Pak Strategy’, 23–4
43 Victoria Schofield, Kashmir in Conflict: India, Pakistan and the Unending War (New York: I.B. Tauris 2010), 196–7.
44 The HM was the most ethnically Kashmiri group and is still active in Kashmir. It is headed by Sayeed Salahuddin, Ghazi Nasiruddin, and Abdul Hanan Baig. It has bases in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The HuA, which has now become the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) is one of the more focused and successful groups backed by the ISI. The HuA was the first group in Pakistan to be placed on the US State Department’s terrorist organisations list in 1995–96, following the abduction and murder of two American, two British, and one German tourist. See John F. Burns, ‘Worry rising for hostages seized in India’, New York Times, 13 Dec. 1995r, <www.nytimes.com/1995/12/13/world/worry-rising-for-hostages-seized-in-india.html>
45 Interview with Gautam Mukhopadhaya, former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan (2010–13), Kabul, 11 April/2013.
46 Antonio Giustozzi, Empires of Mud: Wars and Warlords in Afghanistan (New York: Columbia UP 2009) 188-189 and Olivier Roy and Maryam Abou-Zahab, Islamist Networks: The Afghan-Pakistan Connection (New York: Columbia UP 2004) The Jamiat-e-Islami, however, is considered less religiously radical and more nationalistic in approach.
47 In 2011 India signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement with Afghanistan and officially endorsed an Afghan-led reconciliation with the Taliban. India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) Text of document: <http://mfa.gov.af/Content/files/Agreement%20on%20Strategic%20Partnership%20between%20Afghanistan%20and%20India%20-%20English.pdf>.
48 Prakash Nanda, ‘India seeks to open channel with Taliban’, Times of India, 28 May1997.
49 M. K. Bhadrakumar, ‘Manmohan Singh resets Afghanistan policy’, The Hindu, 15 May2011.
50 Staff Reporter, ‘Indians Flee Afghanistan’, Times of India, 9 July1992.
51 MEA, ‘Annual Report 1993–1994’, 8–9.
52 MEA, ‘Annual Report 1995–96’, 8–9
53 MEA, ‘Annual Reports’ 1990–1997
54 Bhadrakumar, ‘Manmohan Singh resets Afghanistan policy’.
55 Ibid.
56 Ibid.
57 Ibid.
58 Ibid.
59 MEA, ‘Annual Report 1995–96’, 8–9.
60 Dixit, My South Block Years, 108.
61 Ibid.
62 Ibid.
63 Ibid. 111
64 Ibid
65 Vikram Sood interview, and Matthieu Aikins ‘India in Afghanistan: Nation Building or Proxy War?’, The Caravan, 1 Oct. 1 (New Delhi 2010), <http://caravanmagazine.in/reportage/india-afghanistan>.
66 Vikram Sood interview
67 Srinath Raghavan, ‘Soldiers, Statesmen, and India’s Security Policy’, India Review 11/2,116–33 (London: Routledge 2012), 116–18.
68 ‘Recruited by RAW, trained by Army: LTTE’, IBNlive, 7 July/2006, <http://ibnlive.in.com/news/recruited-by-raw-trained-by-army-ltte/14462-3-1.html>.
69 MEA, ‘Annual Report’ 1991–92, 5–6
70 MEA, ‘Annual Report’ 1992–93, 24
71 Ibid
72 MEA, ‘Annual Report’ 1994-95, 12
73 Interview with Rana Banerji, former Special Secretary R&AW, New Delhi, 7 March2013 and Vikram Sood.
74 Seema Guha, ‘India’s strange silence on the recent events in Afghanistan is baffling’, Times of India, 8 Oct.1996.
75 Ibid.
76 The National Security Archive, GWU, ‘Secret Cable from Inderfurth to US State Department’
77 ‘Afghan Taleban Tightens Grip, Dostum Flees,’ Reuters, 25 May1997, <http://img.static.reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghan-taleban-tightens-grip-dostum-flees>.
78 Staff Reporter ‘U.S. govt. to receive Taliban delegation,’ Times of India, 05/02/1997
79 Sunil Narula, ‘India Still Hesitant’, Outlook 16 Oct. 1996, < www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?202282>.
80 Prakash Nanda, ‘India seeks to open channel with Taliban’, Times of India, 28 May1997.
81 Ibid.
82 Ibid.
83 Rahimullah Yusufzai, ‘India Must Not Treat The Taliban As Enemy’, Outlook, 11 June1996, < www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?203662>.
84 Ibid
85 Ibid
86 Ibid
87 Rahimullah Yusufzai, ‘India Must Not Treat The Taliban As Enemy’, Outlook, 11 June1997, <www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?203662>.
88 K. Raghunath interview.
89 Nanda, ‘India seeks to open channel with Taliban’.
90 Ibid.
91 K. Raghunath interview.
92 I. K. Gujral, ‘We’ll discuss all issues hampering ties’, Outlook, 13 March 1997, <www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?203178>.
93 Ibid.
94 Ibid.
95 J. N. Dixit, ‘Making Sense of Afghanistan’, Outlook, 26 June 1997, <www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?203759>.
96 Editorial, ‘New Afghan Crisis,’ Times of India, 21 Feb. 1995.
97 Aabha Dixit, ‘Taliban Factor in Afghan Civil War’, Times of India, 24 Jan.1995 This fits with what Ogden terms the entrenched Indian perception of the ‘Pak-terror nexus’.
98 K. Subrahmanyam, ‘Pakistan disputes U.N, report on drugs,’ Times of India, 19 Dec. 1994.
99 Aabha Dixit, ‘India’s Possible Role in Afghan Conflict’, Times of India, 21 Oct. 1994. The timing of this piece and nature of the same is interesting. It came when Hekmatyar and the ISI fell apart.
100 Dixit, ‘Taliban Factor in Afghan Civil War’.
101 Editorial, ‘Reaping the Whirlwind’, Times of India, 25 May 1995.
102 Editorial, ‘Turmoil in Kabul’, Times of India, 28 Sept.1996.
103 Editorial, ‘Afghan Dangers’,Times of India, 14 Oct. 1996
104 Lok Sabha is the lower house of the Parliament of India.
105 K Raghunath interview
106 Mahendra Ved, ‘Gujral Supports efforts to prevent Afghanistan from being Balkanised’ Times of India, 13/09/1997
107 K. Raghunath interview
108 Ibid.
109 Interview with Salman Haidar, former Foreign Secretary of India (1995–97), New Delhi, 13 Feb. 2013.
110 Ibid.
111 Ibid.
112 Shyam Saran interview. Gujral and Vajpayee met their Pakistani counterparts to discuss Afghanistan in 1990s. This, however, did not work out given the Pakistan’s skewed civil-military relations. See I. K. ral, ‘Interview: Musharraf must discard Zia legacy’,Frontline 19/2, 19 Jan.– 1 Feb. (2002)
113 Lalit Mansingh interview.
114 Ibid.
115 Kabuliwallah is a famous short story written by Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore that encapsulates India’s deep civilisational ties with Pashtuns throughout history. See Muzaffar H. Syed, Indo-Afghan Relations (India: Orange Books International 2013) on India-Afghanistan P2P links.
116 I. P. Khosla ‘Oral History: Last Days of the Soviet Troops in Afghanistan’, Indian Foreign Affairs Journal 6/1 (Jan.–March 2011), 87–103.
117 Salman Haidar, Vikram Sood, Lalit Mansingh, and Chinmaya Gharekhan interviews
118 George L. Montagno, ‘The Pak-Afghan Détente’, Asian Survey 3/12 (Dec.), 616–24 (Univ. of California Press 1963).
119 R. B. Rais, State, Society, and Democratic Change in Pakistan (Oxford: OUP 1997), 122.
120 G. Rauf Roashan, ‘The Unholy Durand Line, Buffering the Buffer’, Institute for Afghan Studies,11 Aug. 2001 (Institute of Afghan Studies 2001), www.institute-for-afghan-studies.org/Contributions/Commentaries/DRRoashanArch/2001_08_11_unholy_durand_line.htm.
121 XI Lok Sabha Debates, Session III (Winter), Wednesday, 27 Nov. 1996/Agrahayana 6, 1918 (Saka). Type of Debate: Statement by Minister.
122 Ibid
123 Ibid
124 ‘Seizing Success: Ignoring the media and renewing our commitment in Afghanistan,’ Talk by David Sedney, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia, at the Afghanistan Studies Group, King’s College London, 12 May 2014.
125 Dalrymple, ‘A Deadly Triangle: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India’.
126 Interview with ‘A’, a senior Indian Military Intelligence officer, identity undisclosed on official’s request.
127 Ibid.
128 Ibid.
129 Ibid.
130 Ibid.
131 Vikram Sood interview.
132 Ibid.
133 Ibid.
134 Ibid.
135 Salman Haidar interview.
136 Ogden, ‘Tracing the Pakistan-Terrorism Nexus in Indian Security Perspectives: From 1947 to 26/11’, 35.
137 Text of document of the US-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement, 2014: http://mfa.gov.af/en/news/bsa
138 Ibid
139 Jon Boone, ‘Ashraf Ghani visit may mark new chapter in Afghan-Pakistan relations’, The Guardian, 14 Nov.2014, <www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/14/ashraf-ghani-visit-pakistan-afghanistan>.
140 Ajai Shukla, ‘Groping in the dark in Afghanistan’, Business Standard, 2 Sept.2013: <www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/ajai-shukla-groping-in-the-dark-in-afghanistan-113090201100_1.html>.
141 Indrani Bagchi, ‘Wary of Pakistan, India hesitant over Karzai wish list for military hardware’, Times of India, 23 May2013, <http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Wary-of-Pakistan-India-hesitant-over-Karzai-wish-list-for-military-hardware/articleshow/20225781.cms>.
142 Shyam Saran interview.
143 Ibid and ‘US embassy cables: Mumbai political fallout continues as Indian government wields the axe,’ The Guardian, 16 Dec.2010, <www.theguardian.com/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/180760>.
144 ‘India and Pakistan ‘battle’ for Afghanistan,’ Deutsche Welle (DW), 19 Nov.2014, <www.dw.de/india-and-pakistan-battle-for-afghanistan/a-18073889>.
145 Praveen Swami, ‘India’s new language of killing,’ The Hindu, 1 May2014, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/indias-new-language-of-killing/article5963505.ece
146 ‘Baloch leaders back Manmohan on Sharm-el-Shaeikh,’ The Hindu, 22/07/2009, http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/baloch-leaders-back-manmohan-on-sharm-elsheikh-declaration/article235839.ece
147 Interview with ‘B’, contemporary of A as a senior Indian Military Intelligence officer, identity undisclosed on officials request
148 Interview with Brig. Arun Sahgal, former Director, Office of Net Assessment, Integrated Defence Staff of India, 2001-03, New Delhi, 18/02/2013
149 Shukla, ‘Groping in the dark in Afghanistan’, and Gautam Mukhopadhaya interview
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Avinash Paliwal
Avinash Paliwal is a Teaching Associate at the Defence Studies Department, King’s College London. His current research concerns South Asian strategic affairs, Indian foreign policy, foreign policy analysis, Afghanistan, and Myanmar. His doctoral thesis examined the ‘Sources of Change in India’s Afghanistan Policy from 1996 till 2014’. He was previously a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi, and a visiting scholar at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, USA.