From Moscow with coercion: Russian deterrence theory and strategic culture

ABSTRACT

The recent Russian approach to strategy has linked nuclear, conventional and informational (cyber) tools of influence into one integrated mechanism. The article traces the intellectual history of this Russian cross-domain concept, discusses its essence and highlights its destabilising effects. By analysing a case outside of Western strategic thought, it demonstrates how strategic concepts evolve differently in various cultural realms and argues for a tailored approach for exploring coercion policies of different actors. The findings of the study are applicable beyond the Russian case, and relevant to scholars and actors exploring, utilising or responding to cross-domain coercion strategy.

KEYWORDS:

• Russia
• coercion
• deterrence
• strategic culture

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

¹ Keir Giles, Russia’s ‘New Tools’ for Confronting the West (London: Chatham House, 2016); Alexander Lanoszka, ‘Russian Hybrid Warfare and Extended Deterrence,’ International Affairs, Jan. 2016, vol. 92, no. 1; Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky, Cross-Domain Coercion: The Current Russian Art of Strategy (Paris: IFRI, 2015); James Sherr, ‘The War of Narratives and Arms,’ in Keir Giles (et al.), The Russian Challenge (London: Chatham House, 2015), pp. 23–33; Kristine Ven Bruusgaard, ‘Russian Strategic Deterrence,’ Survival, 2016, vol. 58, no. 4, pp. 7–26.

² Stephen Covington, The Culture of Strategic Thought (Cambridge: Belfer Center, 2016).

³ Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay (eds.) Cross-Domain Deterrence (under review).

⁴ Ibid.

⁵ Ven Bruusgaard.

⁶ Ibid., pp. 10–11.

⁷ Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky, ‘Russian Nuclear Incoherence,’ Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 37, no. 1. 2014, pp. 91–134.

⁸ Adamsky (2014); Olga Oliker, Russian Nuclear Doctrine (Washington DC: CSIS, 2016); Matthew Kroening, ‘Facing Reality,’ Survival, vol. 57, no. 1, February 2015, pp. 49–70; Stephen Blank, Russian Military Politics (Carlisle: ISS 2011).

⁹ Adamsky (2014).

¹⁰ Ibid.

¹¹ Adamsky (2014); also see: Andrei Kokoshin, Strategicheskoe upravlenie (Moscow: ROSPEN 2003). 68, 317–318; Alexei Fenenko, ‘Between MAD and Flexible Response,’ Russia in Global Affairs, 22 June 2011; Polina Sinovets, Dvulikii Ianus (Odesskii Natsional’nyi Universitet 2008). 39, 49–50; Fedorov, Yuri, ‘New Inconstant Nuclear Thinking,’ in Muthia Alagappa (ed.), The Longer Shadow (Stanford UP, 2008), pp. 134–5; Andrei Zagorski, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons (Hamburger Beitrage 2011), p. 17; Aleksei Arbatov, and Vladimir Dvorkin, Gambit or Endgame? (Moscow: Carnegie Center 2011), pp. 20, 39–40, 45.

¹² S. Chekinov and S. Bogdanov, ‘O Kharaktere I Soderzhanii Voiny Novogo Pokoleniia,’ Voennaia Mysl’ (VM), no. 10, 2013, pp. 15–16; V. Burenok, ‘Oblik Griaduschikh Sistem,’ VPK, no. 10 (478), 13–19 March, 2013.

¹³ Valerii Gerasimov, ‘Tsennost’ Nauki v Predvidinii,’ VPK, 27 February 2013. V.V. Gerasimov: ‘O Sostoianii Vooruzhennykh Sil RF,’ Konferentsiia Voennaia Bezopasnost’ Rossii v 21 Veke, 5 December 2013; VD (2014); Chekinov and Bogdanov (2013).

¹⁴ Gerasimov (February 2013).

¹⁵ Chekinov and Bogdanov (2013).

¹⁶ Iu. Gorbachev, ‘Kibervoina uzhe idet,’ NVO, 2013.

¹⁷ Modestov (2009).

¹⁸ V. Kariakin, ‘Khaosmiatezh,’ Natsional’naia Oborona, no. 6, 2015.

¹⁹ Cheginov and Bogdanov (2013), pp. 17–18.

²⁰ See: Vladimir Slipchenko, Voiny Novogo Pokoleniia (Olma Press, 2004); I.N. Chibisov, and V.A. Vodkin, ‘Informatsionno-udarnaia operatsiia,’ Armeiskii sbornik, no. 3 (2011), pp. 46–49; Vorob’ev (2007); Safetdinov (2014); V.I. Kuznetsov, Y.Y. Donskov, and A.S. Korobeinikov, “O sootnoshenii kategorii ‘radioelektronnaia borba,’ VM, no. 3 (2013), pp. 14–20; V.A. Balybin, Y.Y. Donskov, and A.A. Boiko, ‘O terminologii v oblasti radioelektronnoi borby,’ VM, no. 9 (2013), pp. 28–32; Antonovich (2012); Y.I. Starodubtsev, V.V. Bukharin and S.S. Semenov, ‘Tekhnosfernaia voina,’ VM, no. 7 (2012), pp. 22–31.

²¹ M.D. Ionov, ‘O Refliksivnom Upravlenii,’ VM no. 1, 1995; Fedor Chausov, ‘Osnovy Refleksivnogo Upravleniia,’ Morskoi Sbornik, no. 9, 1999; N.I. Turko and S.A. Modestvov, ‘Refleksivnoe Upravelenie,’ in Sistemnyi Analiz (Conference Proceedings, Moscow, 1996). S. Leonenko, ‘Refleksivnoe Upravlenie Protivnikom,’ Armeiskii Sbornik, no. 8, 1995.

²² Cheginov and Bogdanov (2013).

²³ Safetdinov (2014); Doktrina Informatsionnoi; Kontseptual’nue Vzgliady; Strategiia Natsionalnoi; Kontseptsiia Obshchestvennoi; Voennaia Doktrina; Strel’tsov (2012); Antonovich (2012); V.I. Kuznetsov, Y.Y. Donskov, and O.G. Nikitin, ‘K voprosu o meste kiberprostranstva,’ VM, no. 3 (2014), pp. 13–17; S.G. Chekinov and S.A. Bogdanov, ‘Vliianie nepriamykh deistvii,’ VM, no. 6 (2011), pp. 3–13.

²⁴ ‘Informatsionnoe protivobostvo,’ in Voenno Entsiklopedicheskii Slovar’ (Moscow: Voenizdat, 2007); Doktrina Informatsionnoi Bezopasnosti (2000); Kontseptual’nue Vzgliady na Deiatel’nost’ v Informatsionnom Prostranstve (2011); Strategiia Natsionalnoi Bezopasnosti do 2020 goda (2009); Kontseptsiia Obshchestvennoi Bezopasnosti (2013); Voennaia Doktrina (2014). A.A. Strel’tsov, ‘Osnovnye zadachi,’ VM, no. 5 (2011), pp. 18–25; V.I. Kuznetsov, Y.Y. Donskov, and A.S. Korobeinikov, “O sootnoshenii kategorii ‘radioelektronnaia borba,’ VM, no. 3 (2013), pp. 14–20; V.A. Balybin, Y.Y. Donskov, and A.A. Boiko, ‘O terminologii v oblasti radioelektronnoi borby,’ VM, no. 9 (2013), pp. 28–32; P.I. Antonovich, ‘O sushchnosti i soderzhanii kibervoiny,’ VM, no. 7 (2011), pp. 39–46; Kuznetsov, Donskov, and Nikitin (2014), pp. 13–17.

²⁵ ‘Sredstva Informatsionnoi bor’by,’ VES; K.I. Saifetdinov, ‘Informatsionnoe protivoborstvo,’ VM, no. 7 (2014), pp. 38–41; Chibisov and Vodkin (2011); Strel’tsov (2012); I.N. Vorob’ev, ‘Informatsionno-udarnaia operatsiia,’ VM, no. 6 (2007), pp. 14–21; S.I. Bazylev, I.N. Dylevskii, S.A. Komov, and A.N. Petrunin, ‘Deiatelnost Vooruzhennykh Sil,’ VM, no. 6. (2012), pp. 25–28; Kuznetsov, Donskov, and Korobeinikov (2013); Antonovich (2012); Gerasimov (2013); Kuznetsov, Donskov, and Nikitin (2014); Chekinov and Bogdanov (2011, 2013); Gerasimov (2013); A.A. Varfolomeev, ‘Kiberdiversiia i kiberterrorizm,’ VM, no. 12 (2012), pp. 3–11.

²⁶ V.M. Burenok and O.B. Achasov, ‘Neiadernoe sderzhivanie’, VM, no. 12 (2007); V.V. Sukhorutchenko, A.B. Zelvin and V.A. Sobolevskii, ‘Napravlenie issledovanii boevykh,” VM, no. 8 (2009); R.G. Tagirov, Iu.A. Pecahtnov and V.M. Burenok, ‘K voprosu ob opredelenii urovne,” Vestnik AVN, no. 1 (2009).

²⁷ A.G. Saveliev, K Novoi Redaktsii Voennoi Doktriny (Moscow: URSS 2009), 182.

²⁸ Viktor Litovkin, ‘Andrei Kokoshin,’ NVO, 20 May 2011; ‘Bomba spravliaet iubilei,’ NVO, 26 November 2010; Igor’ Varfolomeev, ‘Iadernaia deviatka,’ KZ, 25 May 2011; Viktor Ruchkin, ‘Balans interesov’, KZ, 28 December 2010.

²⁹ Adamsky (2014) citing A.A. Kokoshin, Obespechenie strategicheskoi stabilnosti (Moscow: URSS 2009), 183–6; Iadernye konflikty v XXI veke (Media Press 2003), 87–91; Efimov, Politiko-Voennye Aspekty, 152–5.

³⁰ V.V. Matvichiuk and A.L. Khriapin, ‘Sistema strategicheskogo sderzhivaniia’, VM, no. 1 (2010); ‘Metodicheskii podkhod k otsenki,’ SS, 46/1 (2009), 51–5; S.A. Bogdanov and V.N. Gorbunov, ‘O kharaktere vooruzhennoi bor’by’, VM, no. 3 (2009); V.P. Grishin and S.V. Udaltsov, ‘Iadernoe sderzhivanie,’ Vestnik AVN, no. 1 (2008); V.V. Korobushin, ‘Nadezhnoe strategicheskoe iadernoe sderzhivanie,’ Strategicheskaia Stabil’nost’ (SS) 46/1 (2009), 14–18; A.A. Protasov and S.V. Kreidin, ‘Sistemy upravleniai voiskami’, SS, 46/1 (2009), 23–6; V.V. Korobushin, V.I. Kovalev and G.N. Vinokurov, ‘Predel sokrascheniia SIaS,’ Vestnik AVN 28/3 (2009); A.V. Muntianu and R.G. Tagirov, ‘Nekotorye problemnye voprosy,” SS, 53/4 (2010), 69; ‘O nekotorukh aspektakh vlianiia globalizatsii,’ SS 54/1 (2011), 25–8.

³¹ VD, paragraphs no. 22, no. 27, March 2010.

³² Matvichuk and Khriapin (2010).

³³ I.S. Ivanov, Iadernoe Oruzhie I SS (RMSD, 2012).

³⁴ Sergei Ermakov, ‘Iadernoe oruzhie vytesniat,’ Pravda, 15.12.2015.

³⁵ VD 2014.

³⁶ ‘Strategicheskoe sderzhivanie,’ ‘Demonstratsionnye deistviia,’ in VES.

³⁷ Leonid Ivashov, ‘Nado derzhat’ Ameriku pod Pricelom,’ Pravda, 08.01.2015.

³⁸ Gerasimov, December, 2013.

³⁹ Cheginov and Bogdanov, 2010.

⁴⁰ Ibid, p. 20.

⁴¹ Ibid, pp. 21–22; also see Ivashov.

⁴² I.N. Dylevskii, V.O. Zapivakhin, S.A. Komov, A.A. Krivchenko, ‘O dialektike sderzhivaniia,’ VM, no. 7, July 2016, pp. 6–8.

⁴³ Dylevskii (et al.) (2015); S.A. Komov, S.V. Korotkov, I.N. Dydelvskii, ‘Ob evolutsii sovremennoi amerikanksoi doktriny,’ VM, 2008, no. 6, pp. 54–61.

⁴⁴ Cheginov and Bogdanov, 2010, 3, p. 20.

⁴⁵ A. Manoilo, ‘Upravlenie psikhologicheskoi voinoi,’ Politika I Obschestvo, 2004, no. 2.

⁴⁶ S. Modestov, ‘Strategicheskoe sderzhivanie,’ Vestnik AVN, no. 1 (26) 2009.

⁴⁷ M. Gareev, ‘ Strategicheskoe sderzhivanie,’ SS, no. 1, 2009.

⁴⁸ Pavel Sharikov, ‘V Boi Idut Kibervoiska,’ NVO, 13.04.2013; ‘Informatsionnoe Sderzhivanie,’ RSMD, 05.09.2013.

⁴⁹ Manoilo (2004); ‘Kontseptsii politicheskogo regulirovaniia informatsionno-pshychologicheskoi voiny,’ Mir I Politika, 12 May, 2012.

⁵⁰ Cheginov and Bogdanov, 2013, p. 19.

⁵¹ N.A. Kolesova and I.G. Nasenkova (eds.) Radioelektronnaia Bor’ba (CAST, 2015), pp. 232–233. Also see: I. Iu. Lastochkin, ‘Rol’ I Mesto Radioelektronoi Bor’by,’ VM, no. 12, 2015, pp. 14–19.

⁵² Dylevskii (et al.) (2016), pp. 7–8.

⁵³ Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, pp. 16, 20; ‘Crimea and Russia’s Strategic Overhaul’, Parameters, vol. 44, no. 3, Autumn 2014, pp. 81–90.

⁵⁴ Chekinov and Bogdanov, 2013.

⁵⁵ S. Chekinov, and A. Bogdanov, ‘Assymetrichnye deistviia,’ VM, no. 3, 2010, pp. 13–22.

⁵⁶ G. Leer, Metod voennykh nauk (SPB, 1894), pp. 53–53; Strategiia (SPB, 1898), pp. 203–204; V. Lobov, Voennaia Khitrost’ (Moscow: Logos, 2001). I. Vorob’ev and V. Kiselev, ‘Strategiia nepriamykh desitvii,’ VM, no. 9, 2006; ‘Voennaia Khitrsot’,’ in VES.

⁵⁷ M. Gareev, ‘Voennaia nauka na sovremennom etape,’ VPK, no. 13 (481), 3–9 April, 2013.

⁵⁸ S.K. Oznobishev, V.Ia. Potapov and V.V. Skokov, Kak Gotovilsia Asimetrichnyi Otvet SOI (Moscow: URSS, 2010), Andrei Kokoshin, ‘Asimetrichnyi otvet na SOI,’ Mezhdunarodnaia Zhizn’, no. 2, 2007.

⁵⁹ See: Lanoszka; Michael Koffman, ‘Russian Hybrid Warfare,’ War on the Rocks, 11 March, 2016; Janis Berzins, ‘Russian New Generation Warfare is Not Hybrid Warfare,’ in Artis Pabriks and Andis Kudors, The War in Ukraine (Riga: Latvia University Press, 2015) pp. 40–52 (2015).

⁶⁰ Ibid.

⁶¹ For example, see: Andrei Novikov, ‘Sovremennye transformatsii terrorisma,’ Voennyi Diplomat, no. 1, 2007, pp. 64–68; A.V. Serzhantov and A. P. Martofliak, ‘Analiz sovremennykh voennykh konfliktov,’ VM, no. 5, May 2011, pp. 36–44; Igor Popov, ‘Matritsa Voin Sovremennoi Epokhi,’ NVO, no. 10, 22 March, 2013; Aleksandr Bartosh, ‘Gibridnye Voiny,’ NVO, no. 36, 10 October, 2014; Oleg Vladykin, ‘Voina Upravliaemogo Khaosa,’ NVO, no. 38, 24 October 2014.

⁶² Frank Hoffman and James Mattis, ‘Future War,’ Proceedings, 2005; David Johnson, Military Capabilities for Hybrid War (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2010).

⁶³ See: Isaiah Berlin, The Soviet Mind (Washington DC: Brooking, 2004); Lawrence Graham, Science in Russia (Cambridge UP, 1993); Science, Philosophy and Human Behavior in the Soviet Union (Columbia UP, 1987); Lev Gumilevskii, Russkie Inzhinery (Moscow: Molodaia Gvardiia, 1953); V. F. Shapavolov, Istoki I Smysl Rossiiskoi Tsivilizatsii (Moscow: Fair Press, 2003); V.S. Solov’ev, Natsional’nyi Vopros v Rossii (Moscow: AST, 1988).

⁶⁴ Shimon Naveh, In Pursuit of Military Excellence (London: Routledge, 1997); Nathan Leitis, The Operational Code of Politburo (New York: McGraw Hill, 1951); Robert Bathurst, Intelligence and the Mirror (New York: Sage, 1993); Christopher Donnelly, Red Banner (London: Jane’s Group, 1988).

⁶⁵ Ven Bruusgaard.

⁶⁶ Dmitry Rogozin (ed.), Voina I Mir v Terminakh (Moscow: Vetche, 2011).

⁶⁷ Thomas Mahnken, Competitive Strategies for the 21^st Century (Pale Alto: Stanford UP, 2012).

⁶⁸ T.V. Paul, Patrick Morgan, and James Wirtz (eds.), Complex Deterrence (University of Chicago Press, 2009), pp. 38–39.

⁶⁹ Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, p. 17.

⁷⁰ Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, p. 20.

⁷¹ A. A. Kokoshin, V.A. Veselov, A.V. Liss, I.S. Fisenko, Sovremennye Voiny I Voennoe Iskusstvo (Moscow: URSS, 2015), pp. 74–75.

⁷² According to Russian experts, the speed and scope of the prospective strike demand the introduction of an automatic intelligence-information system of situation analysis supported by the damage calculation algorithms. O. Aksenov, Iu. Tret’jakov, E. Filin, ‘Osnovnye principi sozdaniia sistemy ocenki tekucshego I prognoziruemoga uscherba,’ Voennaya Mysl, no. 6, 2015, pp. 68–74.

⁷³ Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, pp. 14–15.

⁷⁴ I.N. Dylevskii, V.O Zapivakhin, S.A.Komov, A.N. Petrunin, V.P. Elias, ‘Voenno-politicheskie aspekty gosudarstvennoi politiki RF v oblasti mezhdunarodnoi informatsionnoi bezopasnosti,’ Voennaya Mysl, no. 1, January, 2015, p. 13.

⁷⁵ Michael Howard and Peter Paret, On War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton UP, 1984), pp. 527–530, 566–573; Edward Luttwak, Strategy (Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP, 2003), pp. 32–50.

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Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky

Dr. Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky is an associate professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at the IDC Herzliya, Israel.