The sixth RMA wave: Disruption in Military Affairs?

ABSTRACT

The Revolution in Military Affairs, its concepts, processes, and debates, have evolved in five ‘IT-RMA waves’ since the 1980s. None of them, however, have fully achieved their intended outcomes as their ambitious premises have exceeded available technologies, budgetary resources, and operational capabilities of a given era. This paper argues that a new ‘artificial intelligence-driven RMA’ wave differs in the political, strategic, technological, and operational diffusion paths and patterns. While the AI-RMA may affect select countries and regions disproportionately, its technological advances coupled with an ongoing strategic competition is sufficiently broad to stipulate significant military changes across geopolitical lines.

KEYWORDS:

• Revolution in Military Affairs
• military innovation
• future warfare
• emerging technologies
• disruptive defence innovation
• strategic competition
• East Asia

Acknowledgment

The author would like to thank Richard Bitzinger, Ian Bowers, Chung Min Lee, Zoe Stanley-Lockman, Katarzyna Zysk, and anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and advice on this article, and for making this Special Issue special.

Disclosure statement

The author reported no potential conflict of interest.

Notes

¹ Andrew James, ‘Emerging Technologies and Military Capability’, in Richard Bitzinger (ed.), Emerging Critical Technologies and Security in the Asia-Pacific (London: Palgrave Macmillan 2016), 6–21.

² Zachary Davis, ‘Artificial Intelligence on the Battlefield’, PRISM 8/2 (2019), 114–131; M. L. Cummings, ‘‘Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare’, Chatham House Research Paper, 26 January 2017; Paul Scharre and Michael C. Horowitz, ‘An Introduction to Autonomy in Weapon Systems’, Center for a New American Security, 13 February 2015; Michael Horowitz, ‘The Promise and Peril of Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 23 April 2018; Greg Allen and Taniel Chan, ‘Artificial Intelligence and National Security’, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 6 July 2017.

³ Sara Freitas, Hugo Silva, José Almeida & Eduardo Silva, ‘Hyperspectral Imaging for Real-Time Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Maritime Target Detection’, Journal of Intelligent and Robotic Systems 90 (2018), 551–570.

⁴ Mark Burnett, et. al., ‘Advanced Materials and Manufacturing – Implications for Defence to 2040ʹ, Defence Science and Technology Group Report, Australia Department of Defence (2018), https://www.dst.defence.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/documents/DST-Group-GD-1022.pdf.

⁵ International Institute for Strategic Studies, ‘Quantum Computing and Defence’, in IISS, The Military Balance 2019 (London: Routledge 2019), 18–20.

⁶ DARPA, ‘Strategic Technology Office Outlines Vision for Mosaic Warfare’, DARPA News, 4 August 2017,

https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2017-08-04.

⁷ Colin Gray, Strategy and History: Essays on Theory and Practice (London: Routledge 2006), 113; Michael Raska, Military Innovation and Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry (London: Routledge 2016), 30.

⁸ Paul Evans, ‘Techno-Nationalism in China-US Relations: Implications for Universities’, EAI Background Brief, 30 April 1527, 2020.

⁹ Itai Barsade and Michael Horowitz, ‘Artificial Intelligence Beyond the Superpowers,’ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 16 August 2018.

¹⁰ Raska, Military Innovation and Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry, 30.

¹¹ Dima Adamsky, ‘Through the Looking Glass: The Soviet Military-Technical Revolution and the American Revolution in Military Affairs’, Journal of Strategic Studies 31/2 (2008), 257–94.

¹² Jacob Kipp, ‘The Russian Military and the Revolution in Military Affairs: A Case of the Oracle of Delphi or Cassandra?’, US Foreign Military Studies Office Paper (1995), 3; Williamson Murray and MacGregor Knox, ‘Thinking about Revolutions in Warfare’, in MacGregor Knox and Williamson Murray (eds.), The Dynamics of Military Revolution, 1300–2050 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2001), 3.

¹³ Keith Shimko, The Iraq Wars and America’s Military Revolution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2010), 6.

¹⁴ Murray and Knox, ‘Thinking about Revolutions in Warfare’, 3; Philip Petersen, ‘The Soviet Conceptual Framework for the Application of Military Power’, Naval War College Review 34/3 (1981), 21; Department of the Army HQ, The Soviet Army: Operations and Tactics – Field Manual 100-2-1 (Washington DC: Department of Defence 1984), 1–12.

¹⁵ Kipp, ‘The Russian Military and the Revolution in Military Affairs: A Case of the Oracle of Delphi or Cassandra?’, 6.

¹⁶ Ibid., 20.

¹⁷ Philip Petersen, ‘The Modernization of Soviet Armed Forces’, NATO’s 16 Nations 31/4 (1984), 34.

¹⁸ Nikolai Ogarkov, Istoriya Uchit Bditelnosti (History Teaches Vigilance) (Moscow: Voenizdat 1985); Dusko Doder, ‘Ousted Soviet Chief of Staff Returns to Scene as Author’, The Washington Post, 10 June 1985.

¹⁹ Ibid.

²⁰ Andrew Krepinevich, The Military-Technical Revolution: A Preliminary Assessment (Washington DC: Office of Net Assessment 1992), 6.; Barry, Watts, ‘What is the Revolution in Military Affairs?’, Northrop Grumman Analysis Center351 (1995), 2.

²¹ Dima Adamsky, The Culture of Military Innovation: The Impact of Cultural Factors on the Revolution in Military Affairs in Russia, the US, and Israel (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press 2010); Shimon Naveh, In Pursuit of Military Excellence: The Evolution of Operational Theory (London: Frank Cass 1996), 236.

²² Raska, Military Innovation and Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry, 33.

²³ Adamsky, ‘Through the Looking Glass: The Soviet Military-Technical Revolution and the American Revolution in Military Affairs’, 257–94.

²⁴ Office of Soviet Analysis, ‘Trends and Developments in Warsaw Pact Theater Forces 1985–2000, National Intelligence Estimate No. 11–14 (1985).

²⁵ James Blaker, Understanding the Revolution in Military Affairs: A Guide to America’s 21st Century Defence (Washington DC: Progressive Policy Institute 1997), 5.

²⁶ Krepinevich, The Military-Technical Revolution: A Preliminary Assessment, 3.

²⁷ Ibid., 3.

²⁸ Ibid., 3.

²⁹ George and Meredith Friedman, The Future of War: Power, Technology, and American Dominance in the 21^st Century (New York: Crown 1996); Max Boot, War Made New Technology: Warfare and the Course of History, 1500 to Today (New York: Gotham Books 2006).

³⁰ Raska, Military Innovation and Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry, 35.

³¹ Geoffrey Parker, ‘Military Revolution 1560–1660–A Myth?’ Journal of Modern History 48/2 (1976), 196–214.

³² Murray and Knox, ‘Thinking about Revolutions in Warfare’, 7.

³³ Ibid., 12.

³⁴ Jeffrey Cooper, ‘Another View of the Revolution in Military Affairs,’ in John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt (eds.), Athena’s Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age (Santa Monica, CA: RAND 1994), 99.

³⁵ Steven Metz and James Kievit, Strategy and the Revolution in Military Affairs: From Theory to Policy (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute 1995), 1.

³⁶ Williamson Murray, ‘Thinking About Revolutions in Military Affairs’, Joint Forces Quarterly 16 (Summer 1997), 69.

³⁷ Metz and Kievit, Strategy and the Revolution in Military Affairs: From Theory to Policy, 1.

³⁸ Raska, Military Innovation and Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry, 39.

³⁹ William Owens, ‘The Emerging US System-of-Systems’, Strategic Forum 63. (1996), 1–6.

⁴⁰ Ibid., 1.

⁴¹ Ibid., 7.

⁴² Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ‘Joint Vision 2010, US Department of Defence, July 1996.

⁴³ Paul Mitchell, Network Centric Warfare and Coalition Operations: The New Military Operating System (London: Routledge 2009), 34.

⁴⁴ National Defence Panel, Transforming Defence: National Security in the 21^st Century (Washington DC: US Department of Defence 1997), 3.

⁴⁵ Ronald O’Rourke, ‘Defence Transformation: Background and Oversight Issues for Congress’, CRS Report for Congress 322,238 (2007).

⁴⁶ Steven Metz, ‘America’s Defence Transformation: A Conceptual and Political History’, Defence Studies 6/1 (2006), 1–25.; Thomas Adams, The Army After Next: The First Postindustrial Army (Westport, CT: Praeger 2006); Thomas Mahnken and James Fitzsimonds, ‘Tread-Heads or Technophiles Army Officer Attitudes Toward Transformation’, Parameters 34/2 (2004), 57–72.

⁴⁷ Raska, Military Innovation and Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry, 42.

⁴⁸ Peter Dombrowski and Andrew Ross, ‘The Revolution in Military Affairs: Transformation and the Defence Industry’, Security Challenges 4/4 (2008), 13.

⁴⁹ Richard Bitzinger, Transforming the US Military: Implications for the Asia-Pacific (Barton: Australian Strategic Policy Institute 2006), 6.

⁵⁰ Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ‘Joint Vision 2020: America’s Military – Preparing for Tomorrow’, US Department of Defence, June 2000.

⁵¹ Office of the Secretary of Defence, ‘Transformation Planning Guidance’, US Department of Defence, April 2003, 3.

⁵² Office of the Secretary of Navy, ‘Sea Power 21: Projecting Decisive Joint Capabilities’, US Department of the Navy, October 2002.

⁵³ William Donnelly, Transforming an Army at War: Designing the Modular Force 1991–2005 (Washington DC: Center for Military History 2007), 27–63.

⁵⁴ Micah Zenko, ‘Millennium Challenge: The Real Story of a Corrupted Military Exercise and its Legacy’, War on the Rocks Commentary, 5 November 2015.

⁵⁵ John Sloan Brown, Kevlar Legions: The Transformation of the United States Army 1989–2005 (Washington DC: United States Army, Center of Military History 2012), 1.

⁵⁶ Milan Vego, ‘Effects-Bases Operations: A Critique’, Joint Forces Quarterly 41/2 (2006), 51–57.

⁵⁷ James Mattis, ‘USJFCOM Commander’s Guidance for Effects-Based Operations’, Joint Forces Quarterly 51 (2006), 106.

⁵⁸ Military Innovation and Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry, 50.

⁵⁹ Bitzinger, Transforming the US Military: Implications for the Asia-Pacific, 12.

⁶⁰ Stephen Biddle, The RMA and the Evidence: Assessing Theories of Future Warfare (Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defence Analyses 1996).

⁶¹ Lawrence Freedman, The Transformation of Strategic Affairs (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies 2006).

⁶² Kevin Reynolds, Defence Transformation: To What? For What? (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute 2006).

⁶³ Shimko, The Iraq Wars and America’s Military Revolution, 203.

⁶⁴ O’Rourke, ‘Defence Transformation: Background and Oversight Issues for Congress’, 7.

⁶⁵ Anthony Cordesman and Paul Fredericksen, Is Defence Transformation Affordable? Cost Escalation of Major Weapons Programs (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies 2006).

⁶⁶ Dombrowski and Ross, ‘The Revolution in Military Affairs: Transformation and the Defence Industry’, 23.

⁶⁷ Richard Bitzinger, ‘The Revolution in Military Affairs and the Global Defence Industry: Reactions and Interactions’, Security Challenges 4/4 (2008), 1–12.

⁶⁸ Avi Kober, ‘The Israel Defence Forces in the Second Lebanon War: Why the Poor Performance?’, Journal of Strategic Studies 31/1 (2008), 3–40.

⁶⁹ Juha Kai Mattila, ‘Engaging a Moving Organisation – Modelling a Military Enterprise with Architecture Tools’, PhD Dissertation, Aalto University School of Science and Technology (2020).

⁷⁰ Michael Raska, ‘Strategic Competition for Emerging Military Technologies: Comparative Paths and Patterns,’ PRISM 8/3 (2020), 64–81.

⁷¹ Office of the Secretary of Defence, The National Defence Strategy 2018 (Washington DC:, Department of Defence 2018); Office of the President of the US, The National Security Strategy 2017 (Washington DC: The White House 2017); Thomas Mahnken, ‘A Framework for Examining Long-Term Strategic Competition Between Major Powers’, SITC Research Brief, January 2017; Aaron L. Friedberg, ‘Competing with China’, Survival 60/3 (2018), 7–64.

⁷² Mel Gurtov, ‘Swords into Market Shares: China’s Conversion of Military Industry to Civilian Production’, The China Quarterly 134 (1993), 213–241; Elsa Kania, ‘Innovation in the new Era of Chinese Military Power’, The Diplomat, 25 July 2019.

⁷³ Tai Ming Cheung, ‘Innovation in China’s Defence Technology Base: Foreign Technology and Military Capabilities’, Journal of Strategic Studies 39/5–6 (2016), 728–761.

⁷⁴ Michael Raska and Richard Bitzinger, ‘Strategic Contours of China’s Arms Transfers’, Strategic Studies Quarterly 14/1 (2020), 92.

⁷⁵ Taylor Fravel, ‘China’s New Military Strategy: Winning Informationized Local Wars,’ China Brief, 15/13, 2 July 2015.

⁷⁶ Andrew Erickson, ‘China’s Modernization of its Naval and Air Power Capabilities’, in Ashley Tellis and Travis Tanner (eds.) Strategic Asia 2012–13: China’s Military Challenge (Washington DC: The National Bureau of Asian Research 2012), 60–125; Michael Chase, Jeffrey Engstrom, Tai Ming Cheung, Kristen Gunness, Scott Warren Harold, Susan Puska and Samuel Berkowitz, China’s Incomplete Military Transformation: Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation 2015), 26.

⁷⁷ Phillip C. Saunders and Joel Wuthnow, ‘China’s Goldwater-Nichols? Assessing PLA Organizational Reforms’, Joint Forces Quarterly 82, July 2016; Michael Dahm, ‘Chinese Debates on the Military Utility of Artificial Intelligence’, War on the Rocks, 5 June 2020.

⁷⁸ Chung Min Lee, Fault Lines in a Rising Asia (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2016), 190.

⁷⁹ Aaron Friedberg, Beyond Air-Sea Battle: The Debate over US Military Strategy in Asia (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies 2014), 74.

⁸⁰ Michael E. Hutchens (et.al.), ‘Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons: A New Joint Operational Concept’, Joint Forces Quarterly 84, 27 January 2017.

⁸¹ Norton Schwartz, ‘Remarks to the National Defence University Distinguished Lecture Program,’ 15 December 2010.

⁸² Friedberg, Beyond Air-Sea Battle: The Debate over US Military Strategy in Asia, 80–90.

⁸³ Tom Greenwood and Pat Savage, ‘In Search of a 21st-Century Joint Warfighting Concept’, War on the Rocks Commentary, 12 September 2019.

⁸⁴ Timothy Walton, ‘Security the Third Offset Strategy – Priorities for the Next Secretary of Defence’, Joint Forces Quarterly 82/3 (2016), 6–15.

⁸⁵ Chuck Hagel, ‘Memorandum – The Defence Innovation Initiative’, Office of the Secretary of Defence, 15 November 2014.

⁸⁶ Cheryl Pellerin, ‘Deputy Secretary Discusses Third Offset, First Organisational Construct,’ Department of Defence News, 21 September 2016, http://www.defence.gov/News/Article/Article/951689.

⁸⁷ Robert Martinage, Toward a New Offset Strategy: Exploiting US Long-Term Advantages to Restore US Global Power Projection Capability (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 2014).

⁸⁸ Cheryl Pellerin, ‘Work: Human-Machine Teaming Represents Defence Technology Future,’ Department of Defence News, 8 November 2015, http://www.defence.gov/News/Article/Article/628154/work-human-machine-teaming-represents-defence-technology-future.

⁸⁹ Benjamin Jensen and John Paschkewitz, ‘Mosaic Warfare: Small and Scalable are Beautiful’, War on the Rocks, 23 December 2019. Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., ‘Inside Army Futures Command: CFT Chiefs Take Charge,’ Breaking Defence, 14 August 2018; Arnold W. Bunch Jr and Jerry Harris Jr, ‘Presentation to the House Armed Services Committee: Air Force, Force Structure and Modernization Programs,’ Department of the Air Force, 12 April 2018, 14.

⁹⁰ T.X. Hammes, ‘Technologies Converge and Power Diffuses: The Evolution of Small, Smart, and Cheap Weapons’, CATO Institute Policy Analysis 786, 27 January 2016.

⁹¹ Andreas Krieg and Jean-Marc Rickli, Surrogate Warfare: The Transformation of War in the Twenty-First Century (Washington DC: Georgetown University Press 2019), 85–116.

⁹² Itai Barsade and Michael Horowitz, ‘Artificial Intelligence Beyond the Superpowers,’ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 16 August 2018.

⁹³ Michael Raska, ‘Singapore’s Next-Frontier Defence Innovations’, The Straits Times, 27 June 2018.

⁹⁴ Tai Ming Cheung, Thomas Mahnken, Andrew Ross, ‘Frameworks for Analysing Chinese Defence and Military Innovation,’ SITC Policy Brief 27 (2011), 1–4.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Michael Raska

Michael Raska is an Assistant Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. His research interests focus on East Asian security and defence issues, including theoretical and policy-oriented aspects of military innovation, emerging technologies, information conflicts, and cybersecurity. He is the author of Military Innovation and Small States: Creating Reverse Asymmetry (Routledge, 2016) and co-editor of Security, Strategy, and Military Change in the 21st Century: Cross-regional Perspectives (Routledge, 2015). His recent publications include articles in journals such as the Strategic Studies Quarterly, PRISM - Journal of Complex Operations, and Sirius - Journal of Strategic Analysis. At RSIS, he serves as the Coordinator of the Military Transformations Programme.