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ABSTRACT
Small states are often described as weak, and unlikely to achieve their goals when confronted by great powers. However, technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution, especially autonomous weapon systems combined with artificial intelligence, may enable small states to enhance their security. Therefore, it should be rational for small states to develop strategies based on advances in technology. This article explores three small Scandinavian states – Denmark, Norway, and Sweden – in a comparative perspective of their capability and will to incorporate lethal autonomous weapon systems in their defence forces. Surprisingly, they reflect ambiguous adoption strategies and trajectories.
Acknowledgements
The author wants to thank Stefan Borg, Michael Mayer, Mats Olofsson, Michael Raska, Katarzyna Zysk, and the anonymous reviewers for excellent comments on earlier versions of this article.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflicts of interest.
Notes
1 See, for example, Theo Farrell and Terry Terriff (eds), The Sources of Military Change: Culture, Politics, Technology (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002).
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3 Klaus Schwab, ‘The Fourth Industrial Revolution: What It Means and How to Respond’, Foreign Affairs, 12 December 2015.
4 Lawrence P. Farrell, ‘Gentlemen, we have run out of money; now we have to think’, National Defense, 11 January 2011, https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2011/11/1/2011november-gentlemen-we-have-run-out-of-money-now-we-have-to-think, date accessed 8 August 2019.
5 Tom Long, ‘Small States, Great Power? Gaining Influence Through Intrinsic, Derivative, and Collective Power’, International Studies Review 19/2 (2017), 187.
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8 Theo Farrell and Terry Terriff, ‘Military transformation in NATO’, in Terry Terriff, Frans Osinga and Theo Farrell, A Transformation Gap? American Innovations and European Military Change (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2010), 3.
9 Olof Kronvall & Magnus Petersson, ‘Doctrine and Defence Transformation in Norway and Sweden’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 39/2, 280–296.
10 Vincent Boulanin and Maaike Verbruggen, Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems (Stockholm: SIPRI, 2017), vii.
11 Boulanin & Maaike Verbruggen, Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 51–53.
12 Boulanin & Verbruggen, Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 5–6.
13 Boulanin & Verbruggen, Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 5–6.
14 Gary Schaub, Jr. & Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen, In, on, or out of the loop: Denmark and autonomous weapon systems (Copenhagen: Centre for Military studies, 2017).
15 Boulanin & Verbruggen, Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 6, 40.
16 Harang quoted in Michael Mayer, Dronerevolusjon (Oslo: Kolofon, 2019), 235.
17 Boulanin & Verbruggen, Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 61–63.
18 Schaub & Kristoffersen, In, on, or out of the loop, 22.
19 Stoltenberg quoted in Johan Falnes, ‘Krigsrobotarna inntar NATO’, VG, 24 February 2019.
20 Boulanin & Verbruggen, Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 73–77.
21 See, for example, Norbert Götz, ‘Norden: Structures That Do Not Make a Region’, European Review of History, 10/2 (2003), 323–341.
22 Magnus Petersson, ’Denmark and Norway’, in Hugo Meijer and Marco Wyss (eds) The Handbook of European Defence Policies and Armed Forces (Oxford: Oxford University Press).
23 Wilhelm Agrell, Svenska förintelsevapen: Utvecklingen av kemiska och nukleära stridsmedel 1928–1970 (Lund: Historiska media, 2002).
24 Magnus Petersson, ‘Defense Transformation and Legitimacy in Scandinavia after the Cold War: Theoretical and Practical implications’, Armed Forces & Society, 37/4 (2011), 701–724.
25 Michael Mayer, Dronerevolusjon (Oslo: Kolofon, 2019), 237–238.
26 Hammes, 3.
27 Johannes Lang, Robin May Schott and Rens van Munster, Four reasons why Denmark should speak up about lethal autonomous weapons (Copenhagen: DIIS, 2018).
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29 Schaub & Kristoffersen, In, on, or out of the loop, 20, and Dag Mygind, ‘Forbud moddræberrobotter trækker ud’, Prosa, 2 November 2018, https://www.prosa.dk/artikel/forbud-mod-draeberrobotter-traekker-ud/(date accessed, 23 August 2019).
30 Thomas Larsen, ‘Claus Hjort: Brug for globale regler mod dræberrobotter’, Berlinske, 20 January 2019.
31 Schaub & Kristoffersen, In, on, or out of the loop, 17.
32 Schaub & Kristoffersen, In, on, or out of the loop, 23.
33 Anders Theis Bollmann, ‘Kunstig intelligens, autonome systemer og militærteknologisk acceleration – muligheter og udfordringer i et dansk perspektiv’, krigsvidenskap.dk, 15 June 2018, https://www.krigsvidenskab.dk/kunstig-intelligens-autonome-systemer-og-militaerteknologisk-acceleration-muligheder-og-udfordringer (date accessed, 23 August 2019).
34 Forsvarsministeriet, ‘Dansk droneindustri mødtes med Forsvaret’, 20 February 2019, http://www.fmi.dk/nyheder/Pages/dansk-droneindustri-modtes-med-forsvaret.aspx, date accessed, 26 April 2020.
35 Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud, Meningsfull, menneskelig, kontroll? (Oslo: NUPI, 2020).
36 John Olav Egeland, ‘Nå kommer de selvstyrte drapsrobotene’, Dagbladet, 10 July 2019.
37 Dyndal quoted in Lene Grimstad, ‘Norge er en sinke i arbeidet med å regulere autonome våpen’, Ny tid, 2 February 2019.
38 See, for example, Tor Arne S. Berntsen, Gjert Lage Dyndal and Sigrid R. Johansen (eds), Når dronene våkner: Autonome våpensystemer og robotisering av krig (Oslo: Cappelen Damm Akademisk, 2016).
39 Sigrid Moe, ‘Norske teknologer med opprop mot autonome våpen’, E24, 23 June 2019, http://min.e24.no/norske-teknologer-med-opprop-mot-autonome-vapen/a/EWKyr3, date accessed, 24 August 2019.
40 Ine Eriksen Søreide, ‘Svar på spørsmål om hel- og halvautonome våpensystemer’, Skriftlig spørsmål nr. 1900, 2017–2018 (Oslo: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2018). Translation from Norwegian by the author. All translations from Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish in this article is made by the author.
41 Torunn Aardal, ‘Forestill deg en verden med autonome Kalashnikover i hendene på terrorister’, Minerva, 19 June 2019, https://www.minervanett.no/forestill-deg-en-verden-med-autonome-kalashnikover-i-hendene-pa-terrorister/192044, date accesed, 24 August 2019.
42 Sveinung Bentzrød, ‘Ville neppe klart oss hvis vi ikke lar en maskin overta’, Aftenposten, 16 October 2018.
43 Michael Mayer, Dronerevolusjon (Oslo: Kolofon, 2019), 226.
44 Michael Mayer, Dronerevolusjon (Oslo: Kolofon, 2019), 235, 238.
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46 FFI, ’Autonom minerydding: Hvordan kan ubemannade farkostergjøre det tryggere å fjærne miner?’, https://www.ffi.no/forskning/prosjekter/autonom-minerydding, date accessed, 26 April 2020.
47 Det kongelige forsvarsdepartement, Prop. 62 S (2019–2020), Proposisjon til Stortinget (forslag til stortingsvedtak), Vilje til beredskap – evne til forsvar, Langtidsplant il forsvarssektoren (Oslo: Forsvarsdepartementet, 2020).
48 See, for example, Anders Sandberg et al, ‘Förbjud dödliga autonoma vapensystem’, Dagens samhälle, 11 Apri, 2018, https://www.dagenssamhalle.se/debatt/forbjud-dodliga-autonoma-vapensystem-21566, date accessed 13 August 2019.
49 Linda Nordlund, ’Vi kan inte förbjuda ”mördarrobotarna”’, Expressen, 15 April 2019.
50 Martin Hagström, ‘Mördarrobotar eller vapen som kan fatta etiska beslut – om vapenteknik och automation’, Mänsklig säkerhet, 13 June 2016, http://manskligsakerhet.se/2016/06/13/mordarrobotar-eller-vapen-som-kan-fatta-etiska-beslut-om-vapenteknik-och-automation, date accessed 12 August 2019.
51 Stig Henriksson, ‘Autonoma vapensystem’, Interpellation 2017/18:20 av Stig Henriksson (V) (Stockholm: Swedish Parliament, 2017).
52 Margot Wallström, ’Anf 1ʹ and ’Anf. 3ʹ, Interpellation 2017/18:20 (Stockholm: Swedish Parliament, 2017).
53 Peter Hultqvist, ’Anf. 8ʹ, ’Anf. 10ʹ, ’Anf. 12ʹ, Interpellation 2017/18:20 (Stockholm: Swedish Parliament, 2017).
54 Bodil Valero, Max Andersson, Linnea Engström & Jakop Dalunde, ’Sverige måste stoppa framtida mördarrobotar’, Expressen, 22 June 2018.
55 Rasmus Ling, ’Förbud mot autonoma vapensystem’, Motion 2018/19:2747 av Rasmus Ling m.fl. (MP) (Stockholm: Swedish Parliament, 2018).
56 Johan Eklund and Gunnar Eliasson, ’Radikal upprustning kan bli självfinansierad’, Svenska dagbladet, 23 May 2018.
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58 Christian Catomeris, Alex Bolevin & Mikael Klintevall, ‘Militär kapprustning inom AI – FN:s generalsekreterare vill se förbud, SVT Nyheter, 7 April 2019, https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/militar-kapprustning-inom-ai-fn-s-generalsekreterare-vill-se-forbud, date accessed 12 August 2019.
59 Försvarsmakten, ’Robotsystem 15, https://www.forsvarsmakten.se/sv/information-och-fakta/materiel-och-teknik/vapen/robotsystem-15/, date accesses 5 August 2019.
60 Mats Olofsson (ed), Det digitaliserade försvaret: Teknikutvecklingens påverkan på försvarsförmågan (Stockholm: Kungl Krigsvetenskapsakademien, 2017).
61 Jen Judson, ‘Sweden locked in to buy Patriot missile defense system’, DefenseNews, 10 August 2018, https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2018/08/10/sweden-locked-in-to-buy-patriot-missile-defense-system/, date accessed 26 April 2020.
62 Michael Mayer, Dronerevolusjon (Oslo: Kolofon, 2019), 246.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Magnus Petersson
Dr Magnus Petersson is Professor of Modern History at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies in Oslo, Norway. He teaches and regularly supervises at the University of Oslo, and Stockholm University. He has been Lecturer, Director of Studies and Head of Research and Development at the Swedish Defence University; Visiting Scholar at Boston University, George Washington University, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia. His publications include NATO: The Power of Partnerships (2011), NATO’s European Allies (2013), The US NATO Debate (2015), and NATO and the Crisis in the International Order (2019).