Uncertain courses: theater missile defense and cross-strait competition

Abstract

Heated debates on the utility and effectiveness of theater missile defense against ballistic missile threats not only dramatically affect cross-Taiwan Strait relations and East Asian security, but also provide scholars, soldiers and politicians an extraordinary opportunity for reflection and critical self-appraisal. An in-depth analysis of the issues demonstrates that unless separation becomes a fact of life, an emerging but carefully managed missile race is and will remain part of the projected military modernization programs, while pressing issue linkages and conflict prevention measures set and will continue to set constraints on the likelihood of war, making Beijing and Taibei peculiarly reluctant to resort to the use of force. This competition and cooperation pattern will shape the strategic landscape of China and Taiwan.